The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Esteury Ruiz ($3,100): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
Batting leadoff for the Athletics, Ruiz has the highest projected Plus/Minus in our blended projections with an 87% Bargain Rating. Ruiz has captured at least one hit in six-straight games and has an extra-base hit in each of his last three games. He leads the Athletics in most hitting statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage, hits, and doubles with seven.
This is a matchup of the two worst teams in the league and the only two who have yet to record double-digit wins. The Athletics have a team value rating of 92, as everyone in their lineup is under $4,000 on DraftKings. They will face right-hander Brad Keller who has allowed eight runs in his last three starts and only eight strikeouts through 13.1 innings pitched.
Another benefit to Ruiz is his knack for stealing bases. He is second only to Ronald Acuna Jr. in the league with 13 stolen bases. Ruiz has eight in his last eight games, which provides an added boost to his projections.
With a right-hander on the mound, Ruiz may get several chances to swipe a bag or two. He is one of the better value plays on the slate tonight.
Edward Olivares ($2,700): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Staying in the same game but flipping sides, Olivares looks like another great value outfielder with 6 Pro Trends. He is projected to bat second in the Royals lineup that has a slate-high 99 team value rating. The Royals are implied for 5.7 runs against left-hander Kyle Muller who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate with a 6.28 ERA and a 14.5% strikeout rate.
Muller had a decent first two starts of the season but has struggled ever since. In his last four starts, Muller has allowed 32 hits, 17 earned runs, and one home run in each start. He has only topped more than three strikeouts once in his six starts and has given up an alarming 49% hard-hit rate. This is a great matchup for Olivares, who has a career-high 1.78 ISO.
This is the game to target when looking for cheap stacks or very low-priced one-off batters. Olivares went hitless in each of his last two games but recorded double-digit DraftKings points before that in five of his previous seven games.
Getting the platoon advantage, Olivares will get plenty of chances to showcase his power and provides upside batting second.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Fried ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The pitching options are wide open on this 11-game slate. Our in-house projections and THE BAT X are having a tough time narrowing down the best pitcher. Despite being only $8,200 on DraftKings, Fried has the highest projected ceiling in THE BAT X projections in this matchup against the Orioles. He leads all pitchers with 8 Pro Trends and an 86% Bargain Rating.
Fried has yet to allow a home run and has only allowed one earned run in four starts and 20 innings pitched. His strikeout rate of 24.3% is also up from each of his past three seasons. His pitch count has been sporadic, but the Braves did push back this scheduled start from Thursday to Friday to give Fried an extra day of rest, which could really pay off tonight.
The Orioles are off to a great 21-10 start to the season, as they have scored the sixth-most runs and have stolen the third-most bases. However, they are heavy underdogs in this series, and in this game as the Orioles have a 3.5 implied run total.
The Braves are a -220 favorite with a well-rested Fried on the mound. Prioritize Fried on DraftKings at his cheap price tag.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Ramirez continues to be one of the most feared hitters in baseball, with a career-low 9.4% strikeout rate. Despite his ISO being down while only hitting three home runs, Ramirez still has an impressive .374 on-base percentage. Ramirez has at least one hit and one run scored in six of his last seven games, with six total walks and only one strikeout during that time.
The Guardians have a 4.2 implied run total against Twins right-hander Bailey Ober who is making just his third start of the season. Ober has only allowed two earned runs through 11.1 innings pitched with a 22.7% strikeout rate. Luckily, Ramirez is known for his dominance against right-handed pitching, which makes him a fantastic pay-up option on both sites.
Batting in the heart of the Guardians’ lineup, Ramirez will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs and get several plate appearances. To no surprise, Ramirez leads the team in many hitting statistics, and he still has stolen base upside as he has swiped five bags already this season.
There is a lot to like about one of the best hitters in baseball in a home matchup against Ober.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) at San Francisco Giants
Burnes is another mid-priced starting pitcher on DraftKings who has a ton of upside despite pitching on the road where he is a notoriously worse pitcher. Our in-house projections have Burnes with by far the highest ceiling among all pitchers on this slate. Burnes is projected for 7.89 strikeouts in this matchup, which is also the highest mark by nearly one full strikeout.
The Giants are implied for four runs as they have one of the worst records in the National League. They currently lead the league in strikeout rate at 27.4%, which is a massive boost to Burnes’ ceiling. They are a below average offensive team who strikes out a ton. Perfect spot for Burnes to bounce back and get back on track after a mediocre start to the season thus far.
Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Witt Jr. is coming off of a great three-game home series against the Orioles, where he averaged 16.7 DraftKings points per game. Over that three-game stretch, Witt Jr. had five hits, three of which were extra base hits, one stolen base, and an RBI, and at least one run scored in each game. Look for Witt Jr. to keep a hot bat in this great matchup against the Athletics.
Athletics starting pitcher Kyle Muller is in for a tough night as the Royals have a 5.7 implied run total. THE BAT X projections have Witt Jr. with the highest ceiling and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. With a 46.1% hard-hit rate, Witt Jr. has incredible upside in this spot.
He has the highest projected ownership for all hitters, but it is very deserving tonight.
Corbin Carroll ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
In his second year in the league, Carroll already has as many hits, runs, and the same amount of home runs as he did last season. He is batting a team-high .313 with 31 hits and a .376 on-base percentage. Carroll has recorded at least one hit with five extra base hits in nine consecutive games. His salary has shot up on both sites, but Carroll has been great this year.
Carroll is dealing with a little bit of a knee injury but is projected to be back in the starting lineup, batting third tonight. The Diamondbacks are implied to score 5.3 runs against Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray who is just 2-4 this season. Gray has a decent 2.47 ERA, but this is an exploitable matchup for Carroll, who has the platoon advantage and has hit well lately.
