The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jon Berti ($3,000): Second Base/Shortstop, Miami Marlins
The Marlins are looking to salvage their series finale against the Braves, trying to avoid the sweep at the hands of their division rivals. Thankfully, they’ll have a chance to produce against Dylan Dodd, the most combustible arm on the Braves’ staff. Berti should get into the action, exceeding the implied value of his modest salary.
Berti has been a mainstay in the bottom half of the Marlins’ batting order, occasionally working his way into the leadoff spot. Regardless of where he’s hitting, Berti projects as an undervalued fantasy asset on Thursday’s main slate. The 33-year-old has three hits over his past three outings, scoring twice. His metrics look even better if we extend the window further back, with Berti recording nine hits over his last 12 games, with six runs scored and three RBI. Berti’s also a major threat on the bases, leading the league with 41 steals in 2022 despite getting just 404 plate appearances.
We also anticipate some positive regression for Berti, who remains below his expected benchmarks. His actual slugging percentage of .356 remains below the expected value of .399, and he’s over 30 points off his expected batting average. Hitting against Dodd should facilitate that growth, and Berti represents one of the best values on the board.
Trey Mancini ($2,500): First Base, Chicago Cubs
Trey Mancini’s time as a Cub isn’t off to a tremendous start. The first baseman’s OPS of .695 is negatively impacted by his .381 slugging percentage. Nevertheless, Mancini has bounced back from dismal stretches in the past and should get back on track Thursday against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals.
It’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction for Mancini. The former 35-home run man is below career averages across the board and should start progressing back toward those benchmarks. Mancini has been vastly superior against southpaws this season, setting the stage for an elite effort against Corbin. His slugging percentage jumps to .419 against lefties, an improvement over his .361 mark against right-handers.
Fueling Mancini’s value is an ineffective pitcher on the bump for the Nationals. Corbin sits in the bottom 10% of pitchers in expected ERA, expected slugging percentage, and strikeout rate, giving up six home runs through his first 31.1 innings pitched.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
After months of waiting, Verlander is poised to make his Mets debut. The former MVP missed the season’s first five weeks while dealing with a teres major (shoulder) strain. Now, he’s ready to pick up where he left off after claiming his third Cy Young award last year.
Year after year, Verlander ranks as one of the top pitchers in the MLB. He’s led the league in WHIP in three of the past four years, eclipsing 290 strikeouts twice across that span. Further, Verlander outdid himself last year, posting a minuscule 1.75 ERA.
Ongoing success is validated in Verlanders’ underlying metrics. He ranked among the top 9% of pitchers in expected ERA and expected weighted on-base average while maintaining his status as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers.
The Tigers are the worst-hitting team in the majors, propelling Verlander to the top of our projections. Detroit ranks dead-last in OPS, recording the eighth-most strikeouts and fewest runs in the majors. The Mets welcome Verlander back with open arms as he starts his season under ideal circumstances.
Hitter
Willy Adames ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Brewers have been stymied through their first two games at Coors Field, combining for a laughable three runs in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the MLB. Expect them to go out with a bang in the series finale, led by Adames.
The Brewers’ shortstop has been integral to the team’s production. Adames ranks second on the squad in runs scored and third in RBI, consistently hitting second or third in the batting order. Still, there’s room for improvement, as Adames is falling below his projected metrics, slugging below his expected total of .418.
Connor Seabold won’t offer much resistance from the mound. The Rockies’ probable starter hasn’t seen his ERA drop below 5.23 this season, and he gives up a ton of hard contact. Seabold sits in the bottom half of the league with a 39.1% hard-hit rate, which doesn’t play well at Coors Field.
Adames leads out median and ceiling projections in what’s anticipated to be a high-scoring affair. He also fares well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
The suddenly hot White Sox turn to one of their most dependable arms as they go for the series sweep of a division rival. Giolito will be delivering from the mound and is one of the most highly-rated pitchers on the slate despite a low-end salary. He should easily surpass his implied value against the Twins.
Giolito’s record doesn’t reflect his proficiency from the bump. The former first-round pick is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA, above his expected rating of 3.77. Moreover, the righty effectively induces soft contact, sitting in the 62nd percentile with a 35.9% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 88.1.
The White Sox’s ace has fallen off his previous career-highs in strikeout percentage but remains a top-end pitcher. Still, Giolito should see his metrics rise against a Twins squad with the third-most Ks on the season. That’s reflected in our algorithm, which put him atop our median and ceiling projections.
Hitters
Jesse Winker ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
We couldn’t get through our value picks without highlighting another member of the Brewers. Winker is coming in at a discounted rate, despite facing a low-end pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment.
Winker came off the bench on Wednesday night, disrupting his brief surge in production. Before that, the Brewers’ outfielder had recorded three hits over his last two games, driving in two and adding a base on balls. Like Adames, Winker benefits from teeing off on Seabold, but he has a few other factors working in his favor.
Specifically, Winker has substantially deviated from his career slugging percentage against righties. So far this year, Winker has a .269 slugging percentage, over 200 points off his average of .488. Additionally, he is below expected values across the board, making him a natural progression candidate as actual metrics catch up with projections.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Rodriguez has seen a recent bump in production, which should continue Thursday against the A’s. Still, his salary doesn’t reflect his true potential, as he rates as one of the best hitters available.
J-Rod has recorded four hits over his previous five contests, with one run, RBI, and a stolen base. That could be the tip of the iceberg as he and his Mariners teammates knock around Drew Ruchinski. Rucinski has surrendered 11 hits and a walk in 5.2 innings pitched, leading to five runs. More concerningly, his yielded a .512 expected slugging percentage, hanging meatballs over the heart of the plate with his slider.
Rodriguez feasts on breaking pitches, clubbing a .521 slugging percentage, with seven of his 12 extra-base hits coming on those offerings. That adds to his fantasy appeal as the Mariners go for the series sweep.
