The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyrone Taylor ($2,400): Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Journeyman Tyrone Taylor has worked his way back into the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, making his season debut against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night. Although his return didn’t go as planned, Taylor went 0-for-3 at the dish; we’re expecting him to deliver a more robust effort in the penultimate series contest.
Last season, Taylor was a regular for the Brew Crew. The outfielder appeared in 120 games, setting benchmarks across the board with 17 home runs, 51 RBI, and 49 runs scored. He’ll be able to kickstart his pursuit of those numbers against Kyle Freeland. The former second-round pick has above-average metrics in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and expected slugging percentage, implying he should thrive at Coors Field.
It helps that Freeland is ill-suited for his home field. The southpaw ranks in the 32nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, already giving up seven home runs across his first 33.1 innings pitched. Those metrics could look even worse after Wednesday’s encounter, and Taylor provides pop at the bottom of the Brewers’ batting order.
Triston Casas ($2,600): First Base, Boston Red Sox
There’s an overwhelming amount of up-and-comers in the American League. Among those is Triston Casas, who has underperformed early in his MLB career. Nevertheless, we expect him to deliver on Wednesday night against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Casas is showing green sprouts in his metrics. The 23-year-old has safely reached base in 13 straight games, with most of those appearances coming via the walk. Still, Casas has made the most of his time on base, coming around to score 11 times over that stretch with two extra-base hits and driving in one.
He’ll have a chance to improve on those metrics against Alek Manoah. The Jays’ ace has struggled to command his pitches early this season, giving up 1.63 walks and hits per inning pitched with a .510 expected slugging percentage and 6.92 expected ERA. Casas is slowly finding his rhythm at the plate, and getting to knock around Manoah should help him deliver one of his best fantasy performances of the season.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($10,300 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
As far as the Chicago White Sox go, things couldn’t be going better. After suffering through the first month of the season, the Southsiders have wins in two straight, mounting last-inning comebacks in each contest for their first winning streak of the season. They’ll look to make it three in a row as they send their ace to the mound against the Minnesota Twins.
Dylan Cease is coming off his worst outing of the season, setting him up for a rebound effort against the Twinkies. For the first time all season, Cease gave up more than three earned runs last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays. Prior to that, he hadn’t given up more than six hits in any contest, with a sparkling 2.73 ERA.
Cease continues to post above-average strikeout metrics early this season. Last year’s Cy Young runner-up has an impressive 11.0 K/9 rate, inducing a 20% whiff rate or better on all four of his offerings. Likewise, Cease continues to deliver one of the most devastating sliders in the business, with 21 of his 37 punchouts coming via the pitch.
Minnesota has been a free-swinging group over the past couple of contests, incurring 25 punchouts. That trend will likely continue with Cease on the bump as he looks to get his season back on track and keep the White Sox’s momentum going.
Hitter
Kris Bryant ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Of course, the Colorado Rockies have their own advantage at home on Wednesday night. The Brewers are trotting out Eric Lauer, setting Kris Bryant and the home squad up for a peak offensive showing under the bright lights.
Lefties get eaten alive at Coors Field, and Lauer is particularly vulnerable. The 27-year-old ranks in the 19th percentile or worse in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate, setting him up for a disastrous showing against the Rockies.
Bryant recently broke out of his early-season slump, recording hits in five of his last six. Over that stretch, the Rockies’ outfielder has totaled eight hits and two RBI without tapping into his power swing. Still, he remains below his career benchmark in slugging percentage and barrel percentage, implying Bryant is a progression candidate over his coming games.
There’s a good chance we will see noteworthy improvements in Bryant’s metrics against Lauer. He benefits from the righty vs. lefty matchup but should also see his analytics improve in his hitter-friendly confines. Bryant leads our aggregate projections and should reach his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday night.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Hitters
George Springer ($5,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Blue Jays have met some resistance over their recent schedule, dropping three straight, two of which came against the division rival Red Sox. Still, they’ve maintained their gaudy offensive production, scoring five or more runs in each one of those contests. We’re expecting that elite play to continue and George Springer to be a primary contributor against Nick Pivetta.
Springer remains a fixture atop the Jays’ lineup. The two-time Silver Slugger is the leadoff man for a potent Toronto squad and has improved his standing over his recent stretch. Over his last six games, Springer has two three-hit efforts, totaling seven hits, two RBI, and two runs scored. Additionally, he’s added two stolen bases, rounding out his fantasy appeal and making him a top-end candidate each time out.
Although the Jays’ outfielder continues to deliver above-average barrel and expected slugging percentages, he remains below his career norms. Consequently, we’re anticipating more first-class showings from Springer as actual metrics catch up with expected. Considering his nominal salary, there’s no better time to buy.
Jose Ramirez ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Over the past few years, Jose Ramirez has emerged as one of the best hitters in the MLB. The Cleveland Guardians’ third baseman has finished top six in MVP voting in each of the last three seasons, thanks largely to his offensive prowess. That’s an advantage he’s wielded unmercifully from the left-hand side of the plate, making him an underappreciated hitter on tonight’s slate.
The switch-hitting Ramirez has been raking against righties, posting a .451 on-base percentage and a .560 slugging percentage. Predictably, most of his production has come from that side of the plate, with 10 of his 14 extra-base hits and 13 of his 17 RBI as a left-handed batter. The troublesome for a couple of reasons. First, the New York Yankees are starting Clarke Schmidt. Secondly, Yankee Stadium is an ideal venue for left-handed power bats.
Ramirez continues to display MVP-caliber talent with solid underlying metrics. There’s no reason to discount those factors tonight, as he lives up to his full potential against the Yankees.
