The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Robbie Grossman ($2,800): Outfielder, Texas Rangers
The journeyman outfielder is playing for his sixth MLB team with the Texas Rangers and putting up some of his better career numbers. His .253 average and .746 OPS are above his career averages, and he is currently working on an 11-game hit streak.
Grossman may not have meteoric upside, but he has posted DraftKings point totals of 15, 24, and 28 within his last six games. He has a +5.50 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
He does have a difficult matchup with Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks tonight. Gallen is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in six starts.
Grossman’s switch-hitting ability allows some versatility at the plate to avoid late-game substitutions. He is an interesting contrarian play tonight against Gallen on the mound.
Ryan Feltner ($5,600): Pitcher, Colorado Rockies
As the 20th-highest DraftKings salary on today’s pitching slate, Feltner provides some low-budget value against the Brewers.
Feltner is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA in five starts this season. He is allowing a .340 xwOBA and a 40.5 hard hit %, both above league averages.
After allowing 13 earned runs through his first three outings in 2023, Feltner has settled down in his last two starts, not allowing an earned run in 11.2 total innings against the Guardians and Phillies.
Betting on a pitcher in Colorado is always an uneasy feeling, but Feltner may be worth a stab at the price tag if you want a punt option in GPPs.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Through seven big-league starts over the last two seasons, Brown is undefeated with a 5-0 record and 1.78 ERA in 50.2 total innings. This season, he is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five starts.
Brown has been incredibly consistent this season. In three of his starts, he has thrown seven innings without allowing an earned run. In the other two starts, he has struggled to locate well and allowed four runs in 4.2 innings. Those performances have resulted in three 25+ DraftKings point totals and two duds.
The 24-year-old has the highest projected ceiling on the slate with the fourth-highest DraftKings salary. He faces a Giants lineup that ranks in the bottom half for team batting average this season.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The price discrepancy for Tatis Jr. is eye-popping tonight. FanDuel has him outside the top-20 highest salaries on tonight’s slate vs. the third-highest price tag on DraftKings.
After his first 10 games back in the lineup, Tatis Jr. is hitting .304 with two homers and a .811 OPS. He has been solid at the plate this far, but his career numbers suggest his ceiling potential remains meteoric on a nightly basis. In his stellar 2021 season, Tatis Jr. led the National League with 42 home runs and posted an impressive .407 xwOBA and .617 SLG.
Graham Ashcraft will start for the Reds in San Diego tonight. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts this season. He has allowed just one home run on the season and two earned runs in each of his last two starts. Tatis Jr. is a great value option on FanDuel tonight.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Do we pay up for the best pitcher on the slate? The models say yes on tonight’s main slate.
Cole is off to another impressive start in 2023 with a 5-0 record and a 1.11 ERA. He leads the majors with 40.2 innings pitched and has yet to allow a home run. Even with a stellar track record, Cole is besting his career averages with a .211 wOBA and 29.8 sweet spot %.
The ceiling is high for Cole with his complete game and shutout potential. On April 16, he scored over 45 DraftKings points as he blanked the Twins with 10 strikeouts in a complete-game effort.
The Guardians rank near the bottom of the league in most hitting categories. They’ve hit just 17 home runs this season, which only bests the Nationals’ 16. Fire up Cole as a top-end fantasy option tonight.
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Hitters
Christian Yelich ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
In his 11th season, the former MVP is batting just .223 with three home runs on the year. He has just one hit in his last five games and is well below his career averages with a .656 OPS and .340 SLG.
What better way to break out of a slump than a trip to Colorado? The Brewers will take on Ryan Feltner tonight, who has been a mixed bag this season on the mound. He allowed three earned runs in five innings in his only home start of 2023.
Though Feltner is a strong bargain play as well today, the models like Yelich as a value in the Colorado air. His MVP-caliber seasons may be behind him, but Yelich can still score fantasy points at the plate and on the base paths.
Jurickson Profar ($3,700 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Another Colorado hitter tonight, Profar has turned things green recently with four positive Plus/Minus games out of his last five.
The models love Profar despite his .219 average and .644 OPS on the season. The 30-year-old veteran is hitting .289 in home games against .157 on the road in 2023. His strikeout rate is significantly lower at home, and his .809 OPS is significantly higher.
Profar is an interesting lineup option to take advantage of the Colorado effect tonight. The Rockies face Freddy Peralta for the Brewers, who is 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts this season. He has given up a total of 11 earned runs over his last three starts.
