The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Edward Olivares ($2,900): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Four of the top six batters with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in THE BAT X projection are from the Royals. Projected to bat fifth in the Royals’ lineup is outfielder Edward Olivares who finally got out of his hitting slump Tuesday night. Priced under $3,000, Olivares has a 72% Bargain Rating, and he will get plenty of opportunities in the heart of this lineup.
The Royals are implied for 4.6 runs as they have a team rating of 81 facing White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech. In eight starts this season, Kopech has a 1-4 record with a career-high 5.74 ERA and a 2.55 HR/9. He has given up an 18.5% barrel percentage and has only struck out 21.4% of batters. This is a fantastic matchup for the Royals despite being underdogs.
Another benefit for Olivares is his stolen base upside. He has two steals in back-to-back games as he ranks second on the team behind Bobby Witt Jr. With a .365 on-base percentage allowed for Kopech, Olivares has a great chance to make it three-straight games with a steal. Olivares offers a lot of upside at a cheap price tag in a great matchup against Kopech.
Andrew Vaughn ($2,600): First Baseman, Chicago White Sox
Staying in the same game, White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn is an elite value play at only $2,600 with a 98% Bargain Rating. Vaughn has finished with 14 DraftKings points in two of his last three games as he continues to lead the team in RBIs and plate appearances. He has 5 Pro Trends as the White Sox are implied for 5.1 runs against Royals Zack Greinke.
Greinke is a shell of his former self as he has given up a career-high 5.01 ERA and a 1.74 HR/9 through nine starts. His strikeout rate has dipped to 16.5%, while he is allowing an exit velocity of 90 MPH. Greinke has allowed nine home runs in his last seven starts and 20 earned runs. With a .178 ISO, Vaughn is in a great spot to take advantage of Greinke’s pitching.
Projected to bat fifth in the White Sox lineup, Vaughn is drawing around 11% ownership on DraftKings due to his cheap salary. He was $3,600 less than a week ago, so this value is difficult to ignore. In THE BAT X projections, Vaughn has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. This game is enticing when looking for value plays as there are plenty.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara ($9,800 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel) at San Francisco Giants
After an incredible 2022 season, Sandy Alcantara has had a rough start to the 2023 season. Alcantara has a 1-4 record in eight starts with a career-high 4.91 ERA. However, his hard-hit rate is still below 30% on batted balls, and his HR/9 is only 0.88. He allowed six earned runs in his last start against the Reds but still put up 17.3 DraftKings points with nine strikeouts.
Alcantara has the highest projected strikeouts on this slate at 6.92 in a matchup against the Giants, who rank second in the league with a 25.4% strikeout rate. The Giants offense ranks inside the top 10 in ISO this season, but Alcantara has done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard. He is a road underdog, but the Giants are still only implied for 3.9 runs tonight.
It is close, but Alcantara has the highest ceiling projection in both our in-house projections and THE BAT X projections. He is drawing around 25% ownership, which isn’t bad for a 12-game slate. Alcantara has allowed way too many runs this season, but his strikeout upside is impossible to ignore, especially in this matchup against the Giants, who swing and whiff too much.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Our blended projections have Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani leading the way for ceiling projections against Twins right-hander Joe Ryan. Through eight starts, Ryan has been fantastic, with a 6-1 record and a 2.16 ERA. His strikeout rate is at a career-high 29.7% with a 3.1% barrel percentage. Despite the tough matchup, Ohtani at least gets the platoon advantage.
Throughout his career, Ryan’s strikeout rate has been significantly lower to left-handed batters. It also helps that Ohtani is basically matchup-proof and one of the best hitters in baseball. He has a .250 ISO and leads the Angels in hits, RBIs, and steals, and is tied for the team lead in home runs with 10. Ohtani’s ownership is also very enticing on both sites with his upside.
One of Ohtani’s hitting struggles has always been his high strikeout rate. He has dropped that down to 19.7%, this season, making him even more feared as a batter. The Angels have a 3.9 implied run total as Ohtani is projected to bat third in the lineup. Prioritize Ohtani on FanDuel, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating and is priced under $4,000, which is too cheap.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Blake Snell ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
Blake Snell looks like one of the best SP2 options on DraftKings and a sneaky pitcher on FanDuel. He has a slate-high 7 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 5 on DraftKings with a favorable matchup against the Red Sox at home. The Padres are -145 favorites as the Red Sox are only implied for 3.8 runs. It always helps to pitch behind an elite offense like the Padres.
Snell has only allowed two earned runs per game in four of his last five games. His strikeout projection is just below six, which is one of the highest on the slate. Surprisingly, Snell also has the second-highest ceiling projection in THE BAT X projections. Priced under $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Snell is a popular option in lineups looking to load up on bats.
Hitters
Jose Abreu ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
One of the most popular hitters on the slate is Astros first baseman Jose Abreu. His Bargain Rating didn’t quite qualify for the section above, but at $2,700 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, Abreu looks like a strong value option. In THE BAT X projections, Abreu has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings as he has a hit in three of his last five games.
Projected to bat fifth in the Astros lineup, Abreu will get plenty of chances to drive in runs as the Astros have an implied total of six runs, which is by far the highest on the slate. They will host the Athletics who have a league-worst 10-35 record. Ken Waldichuk is in for a rough outing, as he has a 7.02 ERA through eight games. Abreu has the platoon advantage and has a great chance for his first home run of the season. The Astros are a great stack, and Abreu is a fantastic value in the stack.
