The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dominic Smith ($2,200): First Base, Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals conclude their series against the Miami Marlins with a Thursday matinee at loanDepot Park. Surely, Dominic Smith will get into the action as he looks to continue his torrid pace.
The Nats’ first baseman has torched the opposition lately. Smith has recorded hits in all but five games this month, elevating his season-long metrics nearly every step of the way. So far this month, Smith has compiled a .444 on-base percentage and .377 slugging percentage, yielding a .821 OPS. More importantly, there’s more room to grow as Smith remains below his expected metrics.
According to Baseball Savant, Smith’s expected slugging percentage of .348 remains above his season benchmark of .311. Further, he is below his normal range in barrel and hard-hit rates, implying further correction is forthcoming. Smith is worth the investment as his upward trajectory continues against Eury Perez and the Marlins.
Jake Burger ($2,500): Third Base, Chicago White Sox
Injuries have limited Jake Burger‘s participation this year. Nevertheless, the Chicago White Sox third baseman has been a monster at the plate and should easily exceed the implied value of his modest salary against the Cleveland Guardians.
Burger has put a charge into the ball this season. The former 11th-overall selection has a jaw-dropping .747 slugging percentage in 89 plate appearances. It appears that Burger is seeing the ball with magnified lenses, as his advanced metrics suggest he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
The White Sox third baseman is mashing the ball to the tune of a 24.5% barrel rate, 51.0% hard-hit percentage, and .647 expected slugging percentage. That power has been on full display over his past few games, with Burger cashing seven hits over his previous three, including three home runs, a triple, and six RBI.
No one has an answer for Burger right now, and there’s nothing Logan Allen and his 5.67 expected ERA can do to slow him down.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($9,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The White Sox are going for a sweep of their division rivals as they look to continue their climb out of the AL Central basement. Thankfully, they have the right pitcher for the job, sending Dylan Cease to the mound for the afternoon matchup.
After his first two rough starts of the month, Cease rebounded nicely with 6.0 innings of shutout ball last time out. The 27-year-old stymied the Houston Astros, getting back on track with his early season metrics. Cease held the first four teams he faced to just one earned run and didn’t allow more than three scores in a game until the end of April.
Back in fine form, Cease faces one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. So far this year, the Guardians have compiled the second-worst OPS, second-fewest runs, and fewest home runs. Worse, they’ve seen an uptick in strikeouts through the first two games of the season, getting punched out 17 times.
Cease has a solid four-pitch mix and remains a top-end strikeout pitcher, evidenced by his 25.5% K rate and 27.4% whiff rate. He projects as the best pitcher on the main slate, and we expect him to live up to that billing.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The surprising Baltimore Orioles have had all the answers early this season. Still, we don’t expect Tyler Wells to be able to contain Shohei Ohtani in the series finale on Thursday.
The dual-threat burst into the series with a four-hit performance on Monday, including a triple, a homer, and three RBI, but has been quiet since. Nevertheless, he sets up well against the right-handed throwing Wells, who doesn’t possess a pitch to keep Ohtani off-balance at the dish.
Ohtani has a .444 slugging percentage against fastballs, increasing to .472 against off-speed pitches and .673 versus breaking offerings. Wells’ only pitch with an expected slugging percentage below .325 is his curveball, and he’s turned to it only 72 times this season. Even if Wells decides to go to the yacker more frequently, swatting breaking balls is Ohtani’s biggest strength.
Irrespective of the offering, Ohtani has a notable advantage at the plate. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage and 90th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, facilitating another strong showing against Wells.
Team success continues to escape the Angels, but that isn’t stopping Ohtani from cementing himself as a perennial MVP candidate.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Tylor Megill ($9,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Most of Tylor Megill‘s best efforts have come at Citi Field. Thursday’s interleague battle against the Tampa Bay Rays sets up as another good spot for the Mets pitcher.
The hard-throwing righty has been a master at inducing soft contact, playing well in his pitcher-friendly confines in Queens. Megill ranks in the 73rd percentile with his 34.1% hard-hit rate. Further, he’s posting the best barrel percentage of his career, limiting batters to a barrel rate of 7.3%.
Although walks have bubbled slightly over his last few starts, Megill has done well to limit contact. The former eighth-round pick has allowed 14 hits in 15.1 innings pitched this month, resulting in seven earned runs.
Based on our aggregate projections, Megill is one of the few top-end pitchers available today. He should be able to reach his fantasy ceiling against a Rays team that sits in the bottom half of the MLB in strikeouts.
Hitters
Adley Rutschman ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Catcher Adley Rutschman has been leading the charge in the O’s resurgence. The former first-overall pick has quickly found his foot in the major league, posting elite hitting metrics in only his second year in the bigs. We’re expecting another above-average performance from Rutschman on today’s slate.
Rutschman has improved his standing in nearly every offensive category. The 25-year-old has an improved barrel rate and better sweet spot contact, yielding a .481 expected slugging percentage and putting him in the 10% of MLB hitters. Additionally, he’s decreased his swings-and-misses, dropping his strikeout rate by nearly 4%.
Those improvements have translated to better run production and traditional stats. Rutschman’s OPS has jumped 40 points, and he’s on pace for new highs in home runs, RBI, and runs scored.
That quality production is reflected in his recent sample, with Rutschman recording nine hits, four of which have gone for extra bases, driving in four and coming around to score five times over his last eight games. Those early season trends should continue against the combustible Tyler Anderson.
Luis Robert Jr. ($4,100 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
We’re going back to the Luis Robert Jr. well on Thursday, looking for an improved effort from Wednesday’s disappointing 0-for-4 showing. The White Sox slugger has been effective at the dish and has an even bigger advantage than usual against southpaw Logan Allen.
Robert Jr. has reserved his best performances for lefties. The right-handed batting outfielder has a scorching .760 slugging percentage versus southpaws, swatting three long fly balls in jur 25 at-bats. Further, Robert Jr’s batting average and on-base percentage jump to .360 and .484, respectively.
More importantly, Robert Jr’s underlying metrics validate ongoing production. The 25-year-old sits in the 88th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 87th percentile in barrel rate.
Yesterday’s 0-for performance ended Robert Jr’s four-game home run streak. Considering the circumstances, he could get start a new streak on Thursday.
