The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Josh Bell ($2,800): First Base, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Bell has been heating up over his recent sample, a trend we like to continue on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox. The former Silver Slugger has hits in four straight, totaling nine base knocks over his past nine games. He’ll have a chance to extend that streak against a sub-par Mike Clevinger.
Although Bell has progressed over the past couple of weeks, he’s still short of his expected metrics. So far this season, he’s compiled a .350 slugging percentage and .337 on-base percentage, below his respective expected benchmarks of .409 and .348. Consequently, we’re anticipating more production from Bell as his metrics continue to balance out over the coming weeks.
Wednesday’s divisional battle is a great opportunity for Bell to sustain his current form. Clevinger ranks in the bottom half of the league in barrel percentage, expected slugging percentage, and expected ERA, facilitating more production out of Bell.
Justin Turner ($3,400): First Base, Boston Red Sox
Consistency has been an issue for the Boston Red Sox. Bean town has been prone to hot and cold flashes, going on prolonged winning and losing streaks seemingly out of nowhere. Still, Justin Turner has been one of the few bright spots and one of their most consistent producers over the early part of the season.
Turner has amplified his production in May. The two-time All-Star is slugging .481 this month, going 15-for-52 at the dish, with six extra-base hits. Predictably, this has positively impacted his run production, with seven of Turner’s 15 RBI and 11 of his 22 runs scored coming over the last couple of weeks.
Additionally, the right-handed batting Turner has an advantage over the Seattle Mariners’ Marco Gonzales. Turner’s slugging percentage jumps to .431 against lefties, with seven of his 13 extra-base hits coming in just 51 at-bats against southpaws.
The Red Sox first baseman could easily exceed his ceiling projections on Wednesday’s main slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Every time he steps onto the mound, Spencer Strider is worth rostering. That’s particularly true on Wednesday as his Atlanta Braves take on the Texas Rangers for an inter-league clash.
Strider remains one of the favorites to take home the first Cy Young award of his career, and rightfully so. Strider is improving on last year’s already impressive stats, improving his standing virtually across the board. The NL Rookie of the Year runner-up has a lower ERA and has allowed fewer baserunners and hits compared to last year’s benchmarks.
Still, the most dramatic improvement is in his strikeout metrics. Strider is punching out 15.2 batters per nine innings, above last season’s Cy Young-worthy 13.8. Moreover, the 24-year-old has hit double-digit strikeouts in three of his previous four starts.
The Rangers can’t help themselves at the plate, recording the eighth-most Ks in the majors and striking out 17 times through the first two games of this series. Strider will compound those issues en route to another top-tier pitching performance on the main slate.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
The Atlanta Braves advantage doesn’t end with Strider. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads our median and ceiling projections and should continue his MVP-caliber campaign against Nathan Eovaldi.
No one can keep pace with Acuna Jr. in the NL. The two-time Silver Slugger leads the league in OPS, posting .604 slugging and .438 on-base percentages. More importantly, his underlying metrics suggest that ongoing, if not improved, performances are on the horizon.
The Braves right fielder ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage, expected batting average, and expected weighted on-base average. Further, he slides modestly to the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Eovaldi struggles with giving up solid contact, ranking in the 38th percentile with a 41.1% hard-hit rate. Those issues will only get worse against Acuna Jr. and the Braves, who continue to torch their opponents. We’re betting Acuna Jr. flashes his power on Wednesday, improving his standing as the NL MVP frontrunner.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Corbin Burns ($8,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
A plethora of A+ pitching is available on Wednesday’s slates, but Corbin Burnes doesn’t appear to be getting the respect he deserves. The Milwaukee Brewers ace is coming off one of his best starts of the season and should maintain his form against the lowly St. Louis Cardinals.
Burnes tossed 6.0 innings of shutout ball last time out, allowing just two hits and punching out seven. That was his second scoreless appearance of the season and his sixth straight start of allowing two earned runs or fewer. He’ll have a chance to continue that streak and improve his strikeout metrics against a Cardinals squad that has opened up at the plate recently.
Over the past two weeks, St. Louis has accumulated the tenth-most strikeouts in the MLB. Although that free-swinging approach has yielded improved run production, it’s unlikely to benefit them against Burnes. The former Cy Young winner has a five-pitch mix, generating a 23.9% whiff rate or better on all but one of those offerings.
Burnes has fallen by the wayside with the top-end pitchers in front of him on today’s slate. Nevertheless, we like him to max out his potential against the Cardinals.
Hitters
Luis Robert Jr. ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Luis Robert Jr. has had something to prove lately, and there’s nothing Peyton Battenfield can do to slow him down.
The White Sox outfielder has been on an absolute tear this week, recording eight hits over his past five games, including three multi-hit outings. More impressively, Robert Jr. has unlocked his power swing, sending a ball into the bleachers in four straight games while adding two doubles. That’s bad news for Battenfield, who ranks among the bottom 6% of pitchers in hard-hit rate and 7% in barrel percentage.
Robert Jr. is almost single-handedly dragging the White Sox back into the AL Central race. The 25-year-old has an asinine 1.430 OPS this month, driving in 15 and coming around to score 17. His salary doesn’t reflect his ceiling, and we’re betting Robert Jr. sustains his elite play against the Guardians.
Aaron Judge ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sign stealing or not, Aaron Judge remains one of the best hitters in the game. The reigning AL MVP has elevated his play over his recent sample and should continue to thrive in Wednesday’s penultimate series game versus the Toronto Blue Jays.
Judge swatted two dingers against the Jays on Monday night, adding another long fly ball in last night’s contest. That’s perpetuated his hot streak from this weekend, in which he had another two home runs against the Tampa Bay Rays. That means five of his last six hits have left the ballpark, and we don’t expect his good fortune to end there.
Toronto sends Chris Bassitt to the mound, toting his 8.4% barrel rate and 4.69 expected ERA with him. Although Bassitt shone last time out, he’s primed for regression after overachieving relative to his metrics over the past few weeks. Judge and the Yankees are the beneficiaries tonight.
