The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Triston Casas ($2,300): First Baseman, Bostón Red Sox
The Red Sox are giving their 23-year-old first baseman some needed reps in the big leagues, despite a lackluster start to 2023. Casas is batting .185/.318/.361 and has more walks (22) than hits (20) on the season.
Casas has shown some pop with a quarter of those hits (5) flying over the outfield fence. On the strength of three double-digit DraftKings performances, he has produced a solid +2.99 Plus/Minus over his last ten games.
He is worth a value dart throw today against the Mariners’ Luis Castillo. Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the year.
Shane Bieber ($9,000): Pitcher, Cleveland Guardians
A workhorse for the Guardians, Bieber has lasted at least 5.2 innings in all of his 2023 starts. He is 3-1 with a solid 2.61 ERA in 51.2 innings.
He is even better in May with a 1.29 ERA in two starts, including throwing six scoreless innings against the Tigers with nine strikeouts in his last start.
At eighth on the DraftKings salary chart for today’s slate, Bieber holds a lot of value potential. He has three straight positive Plus/Minus performances.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) at San Francisco Giants
The FantasyLabs model loves the potential of Wheeler tonight in San Francisco. He has the highest ceiling on the slate with the seventh-highest pitching salary.
The 32-year-old veteran right-hander is off to a so-so start in 2023 at 3-2 with a 3.80 ERA. He allows a low 84.6 average exit velocity and has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate.
Wheeler has a +5.95 projected Plus/Minus today against a Giants lineup with a low implied run total. He is both a great value and ceiling play tonight.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox
Though his .285 batting average is above his career average, Ramirez’s power numbers are down significantly so far in 2023. He has just one home run since April 24 and four on the year, after swatting 29 and 36 the last two seasons.
The talented switch-hitting third baseman may be turning the tide. He has three straight games with extra-base hits for the Guardians. In May, he is hitting .295/.353/.432 and has only struck out twice in 44 at-bats.
The model likes his ceiling potential tonight with a juicy matchup against Lance Lynn. Lynn is 1-5 with a 7.51 ERA for the White Sox. He has allowed 11 home runs in 44.1 innings of work.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Cristian Javier ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Javier is coming off an 11-strikeout performance and over 30 DraftKings fantasy points in his last start against the Angels on May 10.
He is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in eight starts this season. His 1.01 WHIP and 54 strikeouts are in the top 10% of the league, but his .319 xwOBA and 41.3 hard hit % are above his career averages.
Don’t expect a complete-game shutout from Javier tonight against the Cubs, but he has been a consistent strikeout machine with 35 over his last four starts. Vegas is expecting him to get the job done as the Cubs have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate.
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Hitters
George Springer ($4,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Through 39 games, Springer has disappointed at the plate for the Blue Jays. He is batting .219/.280/.323, all well below his career averages.
He had a decent series against the Braves over the weekend with a home run and two double-digit DraftKings point performances.
The model likes Springer as a high leverage play, though he comes in with a low Bargain Rating at the price. The Blue Jays have one of the higher implied run totals tonight against Domingo German and the Yankees. German is 2-3 with a 4.00 ERA in eight starts.
Ty France ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
France is willing to do anything to get on base for the Red Sox, including standing in the line of fire more than just about anyone else. He has been hit 55 times by pitchers in the last three seasons.
Although he doesn’t come near league leaders in many other categories, France has come on strong in May, batting .340/.397/.453. Those numbers are much higher than his .277/.358/.394 season totals. During his current 12-game hit streak, France has five double-digit DraftKings performances.
His ceiling is relatively low without home run prowess, but France is a value option today against Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta, who is 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts.
