The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Leody Taveras ($2,400): Outfielder, Texas Rangers
Taveras was a top prospect and arrived in the Majors at just 21 years old in 2020. He struggled at the plate as his offense grew to match his stellar defense. After bouncing back and forth to Triple-A, he has become a regular contributor in the Rangers’ lineup, which has scored the second-most runs in the Major Leagues this season.
He checks into Monday’s series opener against the Braves with a 99% Bargain Rating at under $2.5K. He’s been on fire over the past few weeks, going 26-for-76 (.342) over his past 21 games with six doubles, a triple, a home run, and four stolen bases.
His power and speed have helped him average 10.5 DraftKings points over his 11 most recent contests. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 11 contests with an average Plus/Minus of +4.3.
Despite his recent production, he has a very low ownership projection on this 10-game slate, giving him good leverage while helping save salary to load up big bats or elite arms in other spots.
Taveras has offered more power when facing right-handed pitchers like Charlie Morton and has hit .304 with a .344 wOBA on that side of the split.
Nick Pratto ($2,800): First Baseman/Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Pratto also has a 99% Bargain Rating and an even better Leverage Rating for Monday night when the Royals visit the Padres.
The 24-year-old lefty struggled last year in his first action in the Majors, hitting just .184, but he has been much stronger since being recalled at the end of April this season. In his 16 games since returning, he has established himself in the middle third of the Royals order by hitting a scorching .377 (20-for-53) with five doubles and two home runs. He offers more power potential than Taveras but hasn’t added any stolen bases, being caught in his only attempt.
Pratto is hitting .435 with a .441 wOBA on the road, and he should be able to take advantage of that split with a matchup against Michael Wacha on Monday. Wacha has been decent in his past few starts but is letting lefties hit .278 off him this season with two homers and a .367 wOBA. Pratto should be able to stay hot on Monday night and offers good power potential for a play under $3K.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($10,700 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Since Shohei Ohtani isn’t on the main slate on Monday, Valdez earns the top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Astros’ lefty has a good matchup at home against the Cubs and edges out Charlie Morton and Hunter Greene for the top strikeout prediction.
He offers an 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and matches a slate-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Valdez has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.8 on DraftKings and +5.95 on FanDuel in his eight starts this season. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those eight outings.
Valdez is coming off his best start of the season last Tuesday against the Angels. He allowed just one run in eight innings while allowing three hits and striking out 12. He has had at least seven strikeouts in four of his past five outings and is now up to a 9.68 K/9 rate.
According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Cubs have the lowest implied run total of all the teams in action tonight, and the Astros are the third-heaviest favorites. It sets up for a good night for Valdez, especially at home, where he has a 2.32 ERA.
It’s Framber time!
Hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Elsewhere in the state of Texas, the Rangers open up their series against the Braves, which means they’ll have to contend with Acuña, who has been destroying everyone this season. He is almost even with Fernando Tatis Jr. for the top ceiling projection on THE BAT X, and both superstars are great plays from their leadoff spot since they can put up points with their power and speed.
Acuña put his multi-faceted game on display over the weekend in Toronto. He had two stolen bases for 15 DraftKings points and 18 FanDuel points on Saturday, followed by a home run for 21 DraftKings points and 27.9 FanDuel points on Sunday. He regularly has been putting up big numbers with either his legs or his bat and has at least 15 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
On the season, he has averaged 12.3 FanDuel points and 12.4 DraftKings points per game, and those numbers have been on the rise over the past month. He’s up to eight home runs, 17 stolen bases, a .433 wOBA, and a 52.6% hard-hit rate for the year.
Acuña is almost always worth considering since he can beat you in so many different ways. He seems virtually immune to matchups, but he gets a good one on Monday when the Braves will face Triple-A call-up Cody Bradford.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) at St. Louis Cardinals
Peralta jumps off the page on DraftKings, where he comes with a 91% Bargain Rating. He is the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel’s main slate but is only the fourth-highest on DraftKings. Peralta also boasts an 87% Leverage Rating on DraftKings, which is the second-highest of any pitcher on the slate.
While he hasn’t been going deep in games as consistently as Valdez, Peralta has been very solid this season, going 4-2 in his seven starts with a 3.32 ERA and 3.41 FIP. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his seven starts —including each of his past three — while bumping up his K/9 rate from 9.9 in 2022 to 10.2 this season.
Even his less-than-outstanding starts have been pretty solid, and he has gone at least six innings with over 22 DraftKings points in five of his seven starts. Two starts ago, he had had 10 strikeouts and 23.5 DraftKings points at Coors Field and shut down the Dodgers in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits and a run over six innings.
The Cardinals had a bounce-back series in Boston but are still struggling overall. This matchup in St. Louis will be the second time Peralta faces his division rivals this season after posting 25.3 DraftKings points and 46 FanDuel points with seven strikeouts in a win back on April 9.
Especially on Draftkings, Peralta is a good play in this matchup, and the Freddy/Framber tandem should be a strong play in your pitcher slots this Monday.
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Hitters
Dominic Fletcher ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
While a matchup between the Diamondback and the Athletics may not be the most compelling since both teams have struggled in the early part of the season, it’s crucial to monitor for fantasy purposes.
A’s scheduled starter Drew Rucinski has allowed 17 runs on 21 hits in 14.1 innings over his three starts. He has let lefties hit .500 against him with two home runs and a .579 wOBA, so the Diamondbacks should be lined up for a field day since so many of their key hitters are lefties.
Fletcher is a great value to consider at under $3K on both sites. Since joining the Snakes at the end of April, the 25-year-old lefty has posted an impressive .488 wOBA by going 18-for-42 (.429) with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He has a max exit velocity of over 98 mph in seven of his last nine games with an at-bat, so he’s clearly seeing and hitting the ball well.
Given his hot start and good matchup, it’s time to make Fletch happen!
You can use Fletcher’s cheaper salary to build a nice stack around him with Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, and Pavin Smith.
Matt McLain ($2,000 DraftKings, N/A FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The Reds had to put T.J. Friedl (oblique) on the injured list on Monday, but they used the opportunity to call up McLain, who will be a great value on DraftKings in his MLB debut. He’s at the minimum salary and offers huge upside, especially with the added boost of playing at Coors Field.
According to MLB Pipeline, McLain was the Reds’ No. 5 prospect coming into the season and has dominated in 38 games for the Louisville Bats in Triple-A. He hit .348 with 12 home runs, 40 RBI, and 10 stolen bases while posting an impressive .499 wOBA.
He hit safely in his 10 most recent games with Louisville, going 18-for-38 (.474) with five home runs and a .647 wOBA.
As always, there may be an adjustment period as he faces MLB pitching for the first time, but his ceiling is extremely high, and the Reds should give him a long look as their regular shortstop.
At this salary and in this game environment, he’s a great option to include at shortstop to allow you to spend up for Freddy, Framber, and other top-priced players.
