The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
TJ Friedl ($3,600): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
On Thursday, the Cincinnati Reds are tasked with getting past Kodai Senga and the Mets. Friedl should be up to the challenge and poised to continue his recent hot streak in this National League showdown.
Friedl has been the model of consistency at the dish lately. The 27-year-old has hits in five of his last seven outings, totaling ten knocks, four runs, and seven RBI. Moreover, the left-handed batting Friedl excels against righties and fastballs, making him a dangerous match for Senga. The Reds’ outfielder has an impressive .495 slugging percentage against conventional arms, with ten of his 11 extra-base hits coming versus righties. Additionally, Friedl’s got a .709 slugging percentage against fastballs.
Senga has nowhere to hide with Friedl at the top of the lineup. The Japanese hurler has given up eight runs and four homers over his past two road starts, totaling just 9.2 innings. Friedl will do his part to perpetuate those concerning stats on Thursday.
Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600): First Base, New York Mets
The Mets can fight fire with fire and have their own value play worth rostering on Thursday’s slate. Since the end of April, Vogelbach has been trending positively and is poised for another strong showing against Derek Law and the Reds’ bullpen.
Vogelbach has solidified the bottom of the Mets’ batting order. The former All-Star has a .812 OPS this year, improving his on-base and slugging percentages over the past few weeks. Since April 27, Vogelbach is 9-for-31, with five walks, two runs scored, five RBI, and three extra-base hits. Circumstances suggest that hot streak should continue.
The Reds will get an inning out of Law before turning things over to the rest of their bullpen. Collectively, Cincinnati relievers have combined for a .236 opponent batting average and 1.31 walks and hits per inning pitched, both of which rank in the bottom half of the MLB. Runs should be plentiful, and Vogelbach will be a contributor for New York.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
The Padres will need some length out of their starter on Thursday after burning through six different pitchers in yesterday’s extra-innings loss to the Twins. They’ve got the right man for the job, sending Darvish out for the series finale.
As expected, Darvish remains an ace on the mound. The five-time All-Star has allowed one earned run in four of his six starts this year and is coming off an impressive showing against the high-powered Dodgers last time out. We’re projecting Darvish to sustain that form in this interleague contest.
Darvish’s analytics support ongoing success. He ranks in the 78th percentile or better in whiff rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected ERA. Additionally, Darvish has a seemingly neverending repertoire, throwing seven different pitches to keep batters guessing at the plate. He induces a 25.8% whiff rate or better on all but one of those offerings, giving him an advantage over the competition every time he steps on the mound.
The Twins have been a free-swinging team, accumulating the third-most strikeouts in the majors. That elevates Darvish’s fantasy profile as he reaches his fantasy ceiling on Thursday.
Hitter
Pete Alonso ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Mets have plenty of firepower up and down their lineup. Still, Alonso is the engine that drives the offense, leading the team in runs, RBI, home runs, and slugging percentage. Like Vogelbach, Alonso benefits from taking on an underwhelming Reds’ pen that should help him live up to his fantasy expectations on Thursday.
Alonso has been mashing the ball lately, recording a long fly ball in his last two outings for an MLB-best 13. That extends his recent power surge, with five of his previous nine hits going for extra bases. More importantly, Alonso’s metrics indicate his production is coming from a sustainable place.
The Mets’ first baseman has one of the best profiles in the MLB. Alonso ranks in the 95th percentile in expected weighted on-base averages and barrel rate, contributing to a .597 expected slugging percentage that ranks in the 97th percentile. Further, his actual slugging percentage of .543 is slightly below that, implying further progression is anticipated.
Alonso is among the best hitters in our median and ceiling projections. His torrid pace should continue as he and the Mets knock around the Reds’ relievers.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Mike Clevinger ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Clevinger doesn’t have the most robust fantasy profile, but he is an appealing low-cost pitcher on today’s slate. The hard-throwing righty has some solid strikeout metrics working in his favor and gets to take on the lowly Royals.
The White Sox pitcher has seen an uptick in punchouts over his past couple of starts. Clevinger has sat down 15 batters over his last 11.0 innings pitched, a standard he should maintain against the Royals. At his peak, Clevinger was striking out 33.9% of batters faced. His strikeout percentage has dipped to 20.6% this year, putting him below career norms; however, Clevinger should continue to see those metrics climb as he works up to his career benchmark.
As a team, Kansas City sits in the bottom half of the majors in OPS and strikeouts. Clevinger has been effective over his last couple of starts and should easily exceed the implied value of his salary against the Royals.
Hitters
Gavin Sheets ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The White Sox struggled through the early part of the season, winning just seven of their first 28 games. They’ve turned a corner lately and should continue their ascent against Singer and the Royals.
Gavin Sheets remains an integral part of Chicago’s batting order. The utility man ranks third on the team in OPS, driving in 12 and coming around to score nine times. Further, he’s tied for third on the team with four home runs while accumulating the ninth-most at-bats.
The timing couldn’t be better for Sheets, who enters Thursday’s AL Central showdown on a modest four-game hitting streak. Across that stretch, Sheets has scored three times and driven in four. That’s bad news for Singer, who sits in the first percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity. Sheets’ hot streak should continue.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
It may have taken a couple of weeks, but Tatis appears to be back in game shape. The two-time Silver Slugger has found his rhythm at the plate and should continue to thrive on Thursday’s slate.
Tatis has unlocked his power swing lately, with four of his last seven hits going for extra bases. That includes two doubles and two home runs, yielding four RBI and runs scored. We’re anticipating more of the same from Tatis, as he remains outside of normal ranges in most of his metrics. Specifically, he’s falling short in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging percentage, benchmarks he should quickly get back up to.
Run production is a big part of Tatis’ game, but he’s also a menace on the base paths, rounding out his elite fantasy appeal. We’re betting it continues to come together for him as he improves his current form.
