The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,100): Outfielder, New York Yankees
The New York Yankees’ offense is proliferating over their recent sample, recording 24 runs over their past three games. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is doing his part to elevate the team’s offense, although his salary doesn’t reflect his fantasy ceiling.
A disconnect is forming between Kiner-Falefa’s actual and expected metrics, making him a progression candidate over his coming games. The 23-year-old has the best barrel and hard-hit percentages of his career, despite putting forward a career-low .431 OPS. Further, his .206 slugging percentage is over 150 points lower than his previous career best, implying Kiner-Falefa has a long way to go to reach expected benchmarks.
We’ve seen modest improvements from the former Gold Glove winner over his past few outings. Two of Kiner-Falefa’s last three hits have gone for extra bases, and sustained production is anticipated over his coming games. To his own detriment, Kyle Muller pitches to contact, assuring Kiner-Falefa continues his upward trajectory in the series finale against the Oakland Athletics.
Miguel Vargas ($2,500): Second Base, Los Angeles Dodgers
As is the case with most young hitters, Miguel Vargas is prone to bouts of ineffectiveness. Still, the Los Angeles Dodgers infielder has been a solid contributor over his recent sample and should continue to shine Wednesday versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
Vargas benefits from the righty vs. lefty matchup against Wade Miley, but that isn’t the only factor impacting his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday. The 23-year-old has been scorching at the plate recently, recording seven hits and two walks over his last seven games. More importantly, Vargas has made the most of his plate appearances, driving in seven and coming around to score five times across that sample. Moreover, he’s added a stolen base, highlighting his fantasy versatility.
Miley tends to get knocked around, ranking in the 37th percentile or worse in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and whiff rate. That’s good news for Vargas, who should continue his recent hot streak and overachieve relative to his discounted salary.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw ($10,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is coming off an ineffective outing against the San Diego Padres. Nevertheless, he remains one of the best pitchers in the MLB and should have no problem containing a struggling Brewers’ offense.
Kershaw continues to deliver Cy Young-caliber metrics. The future Hall of Famer ranks in the upper echelon on pitchers, posting 0.98 walks and hits per inning pitched, a 10.1 K/9 rate, and a 2.53 ERA. Moreover, he projects to have ongoing success thanks to his solid underlying metrics. The southpaw rates in the 73rd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, strikeout percentage, and expected ERA, highlighting his effectiveness in all facets of his game.
The Brewers have been one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS while accumulating the ninth-most strikeouts. Those deficiencies are even more pronounced against lefties, with their last-ranked .594 OPS and 33.6% strikeout percentage.
Wednesday’s inter-divisional battle is an ideal bounce-back spot for Kershaw, and that’s reflected in our projections. We’re betting Kershaw lives up to his potential and ends the day as one of the top performing pitchers.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Kiner-Falefa isn’t the only Yankees’ hitter projected to excel on Wednesday’s schedule. Outfielder and reigning MVP Aaron Judge is also a highly-touted commodity on the main slate.
Judge returned from the injured list on Tuesday, helping the Yankees sustain their current form. Although he was hitless, the three-time Silver Slugger had two RBI while coming around to score. It was a welcome addition for the Yankees, looking to keep pace with the top teams in the AL East.
The analytics support that greener pastures await the Yankees’ offensive catalyst. Judge has fallen off last year’s pace despite maintaining his gaudy metrics. He ranks in the top 3% of batters in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage, inferring that he’s a difference maker every time he steps to the plate.
Using our aggregate projections, Judge rates as one of the best available. He’s worth the investment as the Yankees sustain their current form.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($10,100 DraftKings, $10,40 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
There is no shortage of quality pitchers on Wednesday’s slate, which is reflected in their salaries. Six different pitchers have salaries above $9,000, leaving DFS players a bevy of options to consider. Still, Castilo presents with the most upside as he looks to maintain his elite form against the Texas Rangers.
Since landing in Seattle last year, Castillo has been one of the pre-eminent pitchers available. The two-time All-Star has a 2.86 ERA across 107.0 innings pitched, with a 10.1 K/9 rate and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He’ll be able to extend those metrics against a free-swinging Ranger squad.
Texas ranks in the bottom half of the league in punchouts against righties. Additionally, they’ve seen a decline in power over the past week, sitting in the bottom of the MLB teams in home runs and a sub-optimal .417 slugging percentage. Don’t look past Castillo, as he lives up to expectations against the Rangers.
Hitters
Lane Thomas ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Lane Thomas has been a fixture atop the Washington Nationals’ batting order lately, leading off in four straight games. The Nats’ outfielder earned the promotion thanks to a torrid stretch in which he’s recorded hits in nine of his last ten games. That trend should continue with Sean Manaea on the mound on Wednesday.
Not surprisingly, Thomas has pronounced splits against southpaws. His slugging percentage increases to an elite .556 mark against lefties, a 256-point jump compared to righties. Likewise, his on-base percentage is nearly 150 points higher, going from .287 to .439. As expected, this has yielded superior run production, with nine of Thomas’ 17 RBI coming against lefties.
Although it’s not reflected in his salary, circumstances favor Thomas in this one. The 27-year-old is 12-for-37 over the ten-game sample, with seven runs scored and seven RBI. Those metrics should improve with a sub-par southpaw on the bump.
Kyle Tucker ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Houston Astros depend on Kyle Tucker to deliver results in the middle of their lineup. He’s been held hitless in two straight, but we like the former All-Star to get back on track Wednesday against Griffin Canning and the Los Angeles Angels.
Analytically, Tucker remains a top-end hitter. The former fifth-overall selection ranks in the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 96th percentile in expected batting average, and 97th percentile in expected weighted on-base average. Still, his actual slugging percentage of .440 is well below the expected mark of .570, implying Tucker is a progression candidate over the coming weeks.
There’s a good chance he takes a giant leap forward against Canning. The young righty has been primarily ineffective this year, posting below-average metrics across the board. Of note, Canning has given up a 10.2% barrel rate, resulting in home runs in three straight. Tucker does his best work against right-handers and should lead the Astros on Wednesday’s slate.
