The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Call ($2,700): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Call has been locked in as the leadoff hitter in the Nationals’ lineup, and he makes a great play under $3K in Monday’s matchup against Drew Smyly ($7,800) and the Cubs. There are some weather issues to double-check on, but Call should bring good value as long as the rain holds off.
He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games with an average Plus/Minus of +3.0 over that span. He kept his seven-game hitting streak alive by going 1-for-5 on Sunday, and he has gone 10-for-28 (.357) with one home run, one stolen base, and an average of 8.6 DraftKings points per contest over that span.
Call has been especially effective against lefties on the year, hitting .370 with a .429 wOBA, so he’ll be on the strong side of his splits against Smyly.
He brings a little pop and a little speed, and he’s making contact and getting on base at a high enough rate to be a strong play under $3K. According to THE BAT X, Call ranks in the top five in points-per-dollar projection and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate. He’s also not expected for much ownership, giving him the highest Leverage Rating on the slate.
If you need a bargain stack, Call is projected to be followed by Jeimer Candelario ($3,200), Joey Meneses ($3,200), and Keibert Ruiz ($3,200). They definitely won’t break the bank but bring upside at home against Smyly.
Nick Senzel ($2,500): Third Baseman/Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Senzel has a 99% Bargain Rating and comes in on a sudden hot streak as he and the Reds open their series in San Diego. He is being virtually ignored since it has been so long since he was productive, so he offers excellent leverage.
Like Call, he’s a righty who will be on the strong side of his splits against a lefty, and Senzel is projected to hit seventh against Blake Snell ($8,500). Against lefties this year, Sezel has sizzled, hitting .412 with a home run, a double, and a .482 wOBA in his limited action.
As has been the case too often throughout his career, Senzel was sidelined by an injury to start the year. He fractured his toe running into the wall at Fenway last September and missed most of Spring Training. He had a decent rehab stint but started slowly, going just 5-for-36 (.139) over his first 11 games. However, he has shown tremendous upside in his five games since then. In those five contests, he went 10-for-26 (.385) with two homers and an average of 17.8 DKFP per game.
He has a solid blend of power and speed potential and brings a higher ceiling than Call. However, he’s a little more boom-or-bust from this super-affordable price at just $2.5K.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Blake Snell ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
While Senzel and some of the Reds can offer intriguing value, as a whole, the Cincinnati offense hasn’t been very good this season. The Reds have the third-fewest homers and the third-lowest ISO in the Majors to go with their top-10 K%.
They should be a good matchup for Snell, who has the top ceiling projection on DraftKings in both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections. He barely edges out Luis Garcia for the top spot despite coming in nearly -$1,000 cheaper.
Snell has been part of the Padres’ slow start, going 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA and 6.30 FIP in his first five outings. He has surrendered 15 runs on 25 hits in 23 innings. However, there are some positive signs, and the projections pinpoint him as a bounce-back candidate. Snell has 26 strikeouts in his 23 innings and has allowed only two runs in each of his last two starts. Those two outings also came against the Braves and Cubs, so he should get a bit of a softer landing spot against the Reds.
Since joining the Padres, Snell has produced strong home splits; even this year, things have improved for him when pitching at Petco Park.
Snell has the highest K Prediction on the slate on DraftKings. According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Reds have the lowest Implied Run Total of all the teams in action tonight, and the Padres are the heaviest favorites. All the signs point to Snell bouncing back and getting his first win of the season, and his affordability only makes him a more attractive ceiling target.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Padres shouldn’t have trouble providing Snell some run support in this contest as they take on Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver. Tatis is expected to lead the way and has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on Monday’s slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel in both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections. On FanDuel, Tatis is still shortstop eligible and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate since his salary is so much, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
After a little bit of a slow start following his suspension, Tatis finally seemed to get things going south of the border as the Padres faced the Giants in Mexico City. He had multiple hits in both of the Padres’ wins, extending his hitting streak to eight straight games. The most encouraging sign, though, was that he had three extra-base hits in those two games, producing a total of 33 DraftKings points and 43.6 FanDuel points.
This will be his first game at Petco Park since returning from suspension, and Petco is obviously a much different environment than Mexico City. Still, the matchup vs. Weaver is a good one: he’s allowed 10 runs in 11 2/3 innings while giving up five home runs in his first two starts of the season. Weaver has a history against the Padres from his time in Arizona, and Tatis went 4-for-10 in their past meetings with a double, a triple, and a home run.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
MacKenzie Gore ($8,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Gore comes in just behind Garcia and Snell in the blended projections on Monday and is an especially strong play on DraftKings, where he has an 87% Leverage Rating and a 96% Bargain Rating.
Part of the reason Gore has so much upside is that he has the second-highest strikeout prediction behind only Snell. He has fanned at least seven in all five starts this season, exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of them. On the season, he has worked 27 innings and compiled a 3.00 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.35 xERA.
The 24-year-old was a key piece of the Juan Soto trade and looks ready to establish himself as the team’s current and future ace. He looked the part last Wednesday in a ceiling game against the Mets. In that outing, he struck out a season-high 10 and gave up just one run in six innings on his way to 55 FanDuel points and 31.9 DraftKings points.
The Cubs’ offense has been better than expected this season and ranks second in wRC+ vs. southpaws. Even in a subpar matchup, though, Gore’s upside is worth a look, especially on DraftKings, where he comes at a massive discount.
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Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
The Blue Jays edge out the Padres for the highest Implied Run Total on the slate, and Guerrero is second in the blended projections on DraftKings behind only Tatis and third on FanDuel behind only Tatis and Soto.
Guerrero and the Blue Jays will face Corey Kluber, who has a 6.75 ERA and 6.76 FIP through his first five starts with Boston. Guerrero has hit Kluber well in the past, going 5-for-9 with a home run, a walk, and even a stolen base.
On the season, Vladdy is hitting a healthy .309 with five homers and a .387 wOBA. He had a rough 0-for-4 on Sunday but did pick up a pair of walks. He has shown much better plate discipline this season, increasing his walk rate from 8.2% last year to 10.2% and decreasing his strikeout rate from 16.4% to 11.0%. He’s also stolen two bases in addition to his .182 ISO and 54.6% hard-hit rate.
Guerrero has an excellent career track record at Fenway Park, where he has hit six home runs while going 42-for-124 (.339) with a .996 OPS and an average of 10.03 DraftKings points and 9.97 FanDuel points in his 33 career games (per the Trends tool).
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Vlad’s chances of grabbing at least two total bases:
Masataka Yoshida ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
On the other side of that matchup in Boston, Yoshida makes sense as a strong midrange play as the Red Sox face José Berríos.
Yoshida has the highest median and ceiling projection for all outfielders under $5K on DraftKings. Only Tatis and Soto have better Projected Plus/Minus than Yoshida of all the players priced over $3,200. On FanDuel, Yoshida has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders and brings a 73% Bargain Rating.
The 29-year-old lefty has a 10-game hitting streak coming into this series, and he has hit .410 during that streak with three doubles, three homers, four walks, and a .491 wOBA. He has a 58.8% hard-hit rate during that run, and his excellent hit tool seems to have translated well to the Majors so far.
On a slate with few scalding-hot bats in the outfield at the top of the salary structure, it makes sense to drop into the mid-range and grab an option like Yoshida, who is a solid and consistent producer. He has moved around the batting order a bit, but he’s projected to hit second on Monday, which should set him up nicely for continued success and plenty of run production.
