The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Willie Calhoun ($2,000): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Projected to bat leadoff for the Yankees, Calhoun had a great day at the plate in yesterday’s doubleheader. He had at least one hit and a run scored in each game, including a home run and a double with three RBIs combined. Priced at the minimum of $2,000 on DraftKings, Calhoun has a 99% Bargain Rating and the highest Projected Plus/Minus in our in-house projections.
The Yankees are projected for 4.6 runs against Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock. In his five starts this year, Whitlock has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, which are both career highs. His 1.75 HR/9 and 8.8% barrel percentage allowed make the Yankees one of the best stacks on the slate. Calhoun makes the Yankees affordable and easy to fit into all lineup builds.
Whitlock struggles on the road, where he has a 7.07 ERA with all five of his home runs allowed. Opponents have a .430 wOBA and a .672 slugging percentage when Whitlock pitches away from Fenway Park. Getting the platoon advantage is another bonus for Calhoun. He will be incredibly popular as he is a great cash game play filling one of three outfield spots.
Ryan Noda ($2,600): First Baseman, Oakland Athletics
With a Team Value Rating of 87, the Athletics are going to be a popular value stack on this 13-game slate. Eight of their nine hitters are priced under $3,000, including Noda, who is projected to bat second in the lineup. Noda, at only $2,600, has a 90% Bargain Rating and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X projections. He is another great value to target.
Over the last three games, Noda is hitting 6 for 11 with two hits, at least one run scored, and one RBI in every game. Over that time, Noda also has two doubles and one home run, as he is averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game. In his first season in the league, Noda has a .218 ISO with an extremely impressive 45.8% hard-hit rate and 14.6% barrel percentage.
Noda will have plenty of opportunities batting second against Brewers right-hander Adrian Houser. Noda will have the platoon advantage, which has proven to be favorable against Houser throughout his career, as left-handed batters have a .359 wOBA compared to a .272 wOBA for right-handed batters. This is a fantastic spot for Noda, who is swinging a hot bat.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
After sweeping the Cubs, Ohtani and the Angels will look to make it five-straight wins as they open up three-game home series against the Mariners, who have lost six of their last eight games. Ohtani leads the Angels staff in ERA, wins, and strikeouts as he has posted a career-high 33.8% strikeout rate. It is the second-straight year his rate has been over 33%.
In his first win of the season, Ohtani held the Mariners to one earned run while striking out eight batters through six innings. Strikeouts have been the key for Ohtani in racking up fantasy points, and tonight should be no different. This matchup is elite for strikeouts, as the Mariners have a 25.9% strikeout rate, which is tied for the second-highest in the league this season.
Our projections have Ohtani projected for 8.18 strikeouts tonight, which is over one more than the next closest pitcher. The Angels are only a slight home favorite, but the Mariners are still only projected to score 3.7 runs. This game has the lowest total on the slate at 7.5 runs.
Expect a pitcher’s duel and another great outing from Ohtani, who is the top pitcher on the slate.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The most popular batter on this slate is Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. His dual eligibility on FanDuel makes him even easier to fit into lineups even though he is one of the top two most expensive batters. In his 42 games played this season, Tatis Jr. already has 11 home runs and seven stolen bases. It helps his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 18.7% as well.
One of the main reasons why Tatis Jr. looks like such an attractive option is the Padres are the away team in Coors Field tonight. They are implied for a slate-high 6.8 runs against Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber. Pitching at home, Gomber has an 8.64 ERA while allowing nine home runs and a .324 wOBA. He has allowed a career-high 2.06 HR/9 on the season.
Tatis Jr. has the platoon advantage and has 5 Pro Trends in this matchup tonight. With the great value hitters mentioned above, Tatis Jr. is a great player to pay-up for. The Padres have a few other expensive bats in their lineup, but Tatis Jr. rates out the best by far in our blended projections. Take advantage of his elite upside against a pitcher who struggles at home.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Tyler Wells ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Wells is an incredible value on DraftKings at only $8,300 with an 80% Bargain Rating. He is a great second pitcher to pair with Ohtani as Wells gets a home matchup against the Royals, who have the second-worst record in the league at 18-44. The Royals offense is terrible, as they rank bottom five in several categories while tied for the fifth-highest strikeout rate.
In his third year in the league, Wells has a career-best 3.29 ERA with a 4-2 record and a 26.6% strikeout rate. Run prevention should be easy pitching against the Royals, who are only implied for 3.7 runs. The Orioles are a -190 home favorite, which makes Wells an intriguing value pitcher. He has averaged 18.7 DraftKings points per game this season.
Hitters
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
It is impossible to ignore how great Ronald Acuna Jr. has been this season. He has 12 home runs and ranks second in the league with 28 stolen bases. Over his last five games, Acuna Jr. has recorded 14 or more DraftKings points in four of those games while averaging 16.8 per game. His dual-threat ability makes him safe for cash games while having tournament upside.
Acuna Jr. will get a matchup against Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray who has struggled in back-to-back starts allowing six earned runs and three home runs. His 19% strikeout rate doesn’t put fear into any batter. Batting leadoff, Acuna Jr. will get plenty of opportunities for fantasy points against Gray.
The Braves are implied for six runs and are a -205 favorite.
Tommy Pham ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pham is another value batter who finds himself in a favorable spot against Pirates veteran left-hander Rich Hill. In his last six games, Pham has three home runs, two doubles, one triple, and 10 RBIs. He has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points per game over that time and is still priced under $3,000 on both sites. Pham is a strong value play and has proven to have upside.
Rich Hill has a 5-5 record through 12 starts with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. After a brutal start to the season, Hill has put together some strong outings but still has a 21.6% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity averages out at 87.6 MPH as he is allowing a career-high 11% barrel percentage. In his four plate appearances against Hill, Pham has one home run.
