The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Taylor Ward ($3,400): Outfielder, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels continued their ascent up the standings, winning their third straight game on Wednesday. They’ll have a chance to build off that momentum as they go for a sweep of the visiting Cubs. Ward has been integral to their success lately and should continue his hot play on Thursday.
Ward enters Thursday’s interleague showdown on the strength of a seven-game hit streak. Over that stretch, the Angels’ outfielder has totaled 11 hits, one double, three long balls, four runs scored, and six RBI. He’ll have a chance to extend that scorching play against Drew Smyly, a southpaw who pitches to contact. That suits Ward’s hitting profile perfectly, as he rates above average in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and chase rate.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bearish on Smyly’s ability to get outs in this matchup:
Although he’s made a name for himself over his recent sample, Ward’s salary does not yet accurately reflect his fantasy ceiling. On that basis, he’s the slate leader in Projected Plus/Minus and should exceed the value of his modest salary.
Willie Calhoun ($2,000): Outfielder, New York Yankees
It’s been a long week for Calhoun. The Yankees outfielder is hitless over his last four games after an impressive stretch in which he recorded nine hits across five games. We like him to get back on track Thursday against Chicago White Sox, as he projects as one of the best values on the board.
Calhoun’s recent uptick in production is validated by solid underlying metrics. The 28-year-old is better than most in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and walk percentage. Combined with his 14.8-degree launch angle, Calhoun is a threat whenever he walks to the plate. Moreover, he remains below his expected slugging percentage, implying more productive at-bats are on the horizon.
Circumstances favor Calhoun in Thursday’s tilt against the Sox. The left-handed batting Calhoun does most of his damage against righties, compiling a .390 slugging percentage and all of his extra-base hits coming against conventional arms. He’ll take some of Lance Lynn‘s offerings for a ride, elevating his fantasy contributions on the main slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,000 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Strider is the best pitcher on tonight’s slate, and it’s not even close. All the Cy Young frontrunner has done this year is dominate, and the ineffective Mets won’t offer much resistance. Strider is poised to improve his perceived value as the best pitcher in the National League.
Strider’s reputation as the premier arm on the Senior Circuit is well validated. The former fourth-round pick is 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.00 walks + hits per inning pitched, and a league-leading 14.6 K/9. In terms of absolutes, he’s got almost 20 more strikeouts than the next closest competitor in the NL while throwing ten fewer innings.
Those traditional stats are propped up with some of the best analytics in the business. Strider ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff rate thanks to his devastating three-pitch mix. The Braves ace induces a 55.6% swing-and-miss rate on his changeup and a 57.4% mark on his slider.
The Mets have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year, ranking in the bottom third in the majors in OPS and the bottom half in runs scored. Worse, they’re averaging nearly ten strikeouts per game over the past week, totaling 49 Ks in their last five games.
Strider’s fantasy value has never been higher, and he isn’t worth passing up.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Atlanta’s dominance isn’t limited to handcuffing opponents from the mound. They also possess one of the most dangerous lineups in the game, featuring several perennial All-Stars. Among them is Acuna, who once again projects as an elite fantasy option against the Mets.
Acuna’s batting profile reads like a Hall of Fame application. The two-time Silver Slugger sits in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage, expected batting average, and expected weighted on-base average. He tails off marginally in hard-hit and barrel rate but still delivers an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph, putting him back in the 99th percentile.
There are a few game-specific factors also worth considering. Age has finally caught up with Justin Verlander. The future Hall of Famer gives up a ton of hard contact, putting him in the bottom half of MLB pitchers in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. Further, he’s been victimized by right-handed batters, allowing four home runs and 20 hits across 20.1 innings pitched. Likewise, 24 of Acuna’s 30 extra-base hits have come off righties, including nine of 12 long balls.
Those variables and more are cooked into our algorithm, which ranks Acuna as the pre-eminent hitter available on the evening slate.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Reid Detmers ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
There’s an unassuming name atop our median and ceiling projections today, with Angels’ starting pitcher Detmers showing one of the highest fantasy ceilings on the slate. The former first-round pick has modest salaries on both platforms but should get the better of a struggling Cubbies’ lineup.
Detmers got off to a great start this season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in three of his first four starts. Although he’s struggled with consistency since then, he’s occasionally flashed his elite ceiling. Three starts ago, Detmers struck out 12 in 5.2 innings, highlighting the stuff that made him a top-round pick. Those performances will become more frequent as Detmers continues developing and establishes more confidence on the bump.
The Cubs have the fifth-most strikeouts and fourth-worst strikeout rate versus lefties this year. Additionally, they’ve struggled to produce outside their hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Chicago ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs scored and strikeouts as the visitors.
Detmers is poised for another strong showing as he looks to re-capture his early-season form.
Hitters
Anthony Rizzo ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Aaron Judge‘s absence from the Yankees’ lineup has necessitated others to step up. Rizzo hasn’t been a difference-maker lately, but it’s time for the three-time All-Star to snap out of his modest slump.
Rizzzo’s recorded just one hit in four games this month but will be fresh after yesterday’s postponement. Further, he’s reserved his best efforts for at home, accumulating a .597 slugging percentage at Yankee Stadium. Eight of his 11 homers and 21 of his 32 RBI have come within his friendly confines, leaving little doubt that he’ll continue to produce.
The White Sox are sacrificing Lynn on Thursday. The Yankees are rested and at home against an ineffective pitcher who runs his pitches down Broadway. Lynn sits in the 16th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 17th percentile in expected ERA, allowing Rizzo to reach his fantasy ceiling in this inter-divisional matchup.
Luis Robert ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Of course, it’s not just the Yankees that benefit from playing in Yankee Stadium. The White Sox have a slew of heavy hitters that could take advantage of the park factors and tantalizing offerings from Randy Vasquez. Luis Robert stands among them with the best fantasy projections.
May was arguably the best month of Robert’s career. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up put together a .640 slugging percentage with eight home runs, 17 RBI, and 23 runs scored. He hasn’t replicated those lofty metrics early this month, but he’s showing signs of getting back on track. Robert has two hits in his previous two outings, with one double and two runs scored.
Vasquez should facilitate growth from Robert on Thursday. In his lone big league start, the youngster gave up a .516 expected slugging percentage and 8.3% barrel rate. It’s unlikely he will sustain long-term success at Yankee Stadium with those numbers, and Robert will offer a rude awakening.
