The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Kevin Newman ($2,600): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Hello, Newman.
The Reds’ utility infielder has taken over as the team’s primary leadoff hitter over the past several games but is still highly affordable and eligible for multiple positions, making him a good fit in many stacks and roster builds. He is projected to return to the leadoff spot Monday as the Reds finish their series with the Brewers and take on Julio Teheran. Cincinnati is slightly favored despite losing each of the first three games in this set.
Newman has a 99% Bargain Rating, the highest of any player on Monday’s seven-game slate.
In his 10 most recent games, Newman has gone 14-for-39 (.359) with five doubles, seven walks, and two stolen bases. He hasn’t homered since April 17, but he has proven he can be productive even without much power potential if he keeps getting on base and adds in a few stolen bases. In those 10 games, he has averaged 10.2 DraftKings points per game and has five games with double-digit DraftKings points.
Newman could be squeezed out of the mix when the Reds go younger and call up phenom Elly De La Cruz, but the veteran has been solid lately and should stay in the mix in the short term. While I’m not sure I’m on board with Newman as a long-term option, that doesn’t really matter for DFS. If he’s hitting leadoff and getting on base, he’s worth a look at this price and with his multi-positional eligibility.
Drew Waters ($2,000): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Waters is available at the minimum on Monday night as the Royals take their talents to South Beach and take on the Marlins. Waters didn’t start on Sunday but has been getting regular time in the outfield since getting called up just over a week ago.
The switch-hitting 24-year-old got a late start to the season due to a strained oblique, but he looked good during his 13-game rehab assignment with the Omaha Storm Chasers. He hit .327 with a pair of home runs, two stolen bases, and a .439 wOBA. Waters is expected to offer a solid blend of power and speed, giving him a higher ceiling and multiple ways to produce value in any game.
In his six games with an at-bat, Waters has averaged 5.7 DraftKings points, and he hit his first homer of the season last Friday against the Rockies. In his 32 games in Kansas City in 2022, Waters hit five homers and had a .347 wOBA. He hasn’t attempted a stolen base in the Majors yet, but he does have potential in that category as well.
He’s also hit lefties well, so he should be in a good matchup against Braxton Garrett. Waters doesn’t have to do much to deliver good value at only $2K and makes a good bargain play in the outfield, as indicated by his 98% Bargain Rating and his projected Plus/Minus of just under 2.0 in both THE BAT X Projections and FantasyLabs Projections.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
While he hasn’t been as consistent as expected for a true ace, Nola brings the highest ceiling projection on Monday’s seven-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Nola gets a boost from his favorable matchup against the Tigers, and he’s worth considering if you can afford to pay up to get his ceiling.
He showcased his ceiling three starts ago with a strong home outing against the Cubs, striking out a season-high 10 and allowing just two runs on four hits to get the win and earn 32.8 DraftKings points and 55 FanDuel points. That was his most recent home start, but he was knocked around a little bit on the road by the Braves and Mets in his two starts since then. Throughout the season, Nola’s best starts have come at Citizens Bank Park, where he has a 3.86 ERA and 4.06 FIP.
While Nola has a high ceiling, he has a 4.70 ERA and 4.40 FIP this season and has only averaged 15.4 DraftKings points per start. He has been victimized by the long ball too often this season, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 10.3 K/9 to 7.8 K/9.
Despite not being in his best form, he should have a soft landing spot against the Tigers. Detroit has scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors this year, ahead of only the hapless A’s. They are hitting just .226 as a team (third-worst in the Majors) with a .289 wOBA. They scored just three runs total in their three games in Chicago this weekend and have only scored more than three runs once in their six most recent games.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Tatis has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as he and the Padres try to earn a split in their series against the visiting Cubs.
Tatis has been solid since returning after his suspension, hitting .263 with 11 homers and six stolen bases with a .349 wOBA in his 39 games. He has a .270 BABIP — due for some positive regression — and an excellent .236 ISO. His numbers aren’t quite what they were in 2021, but he appears to be rounding into form.
In his past four games, Tatis has been especially hot, going 8-for-17 (.471) with three doubles, two home runs, and a stolen base, resulting in an average of 18.8 DraftKings points and 25.2 FanDuel points per game. He has a 60% hard-hit rate and a 26.7% barrel rate during those contests.
Seven of his 11 home runs this season have come in his 17 games at Petco Park, where he is hitting .316 with a .412 wOBA. He also adds some stolen base potential, making his ceiling even higher.
On Monday, Tatis is projected to bat second against Kyle Hendricks, who has made just two starts for the Cubs this season, allowing six runs (four earned) over 9 1/3 innings. Hendricks usually pitches to contact quite a bit, which should make him a good matchup in which Tatis can keep seeing and smashing the ball on Monday.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Andrew Abbott ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds are continuing their youth movement by calling up 24-year-old lefty Abbott to make his MLB debut against the Brewers on Monday night. He’s available for the minimum salary on DraftKings, representing an elite value. He’s even worth a look on FanDuel, where he was added to the player pool with a salary of $8K.
While he doesn’t have overpowering stuff like several of the Reds’ other young pitchers, he is rated as the team’s top pitching prospect and the No. 6 prospect in the organization.
Abbott has been very sharp in his 10 starts in Double-A and Triple-A this season, going a combined 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.926 WHIP. The best sign for his fantasy potential is his 90 strikeouts in 54 innings. He has been even sharper in his three recent starts for the Louisville Bats in Triple-A, striking out 25 in 18.1 innings and allowing a total of just three runs.
While he will be stepping up in competition by moving to the Majors, this is a pretty good spot for his debut. He’ll face the Brewers, who have the worse team batting average (.210) and lowest team wOBA (.281) in the majors against lefties.
Abbott is an elite value on DraftKings, allowing you to stuff your lineup full of big bats. He enables just about any stack on the board to be in play and won’t have to provide excellent points-per-dollar production.
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Hitters
Corey Seager ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Rangers have been riding high all season with a relentless offense that has been an outstanding stack on almost every slate. They have scored the most runs in the majors and have the highest team batting average with the second-highest wOBA. Their production is even more impressive when you consider they have been without one of their best hitters, Seager, for much of the season. Since returning, though, Seager has jumped right in and joined the fun.
In the blended projections, Seager has the highest median projection of all shortstops on DraftKings and ranks behind only Tatis at the position on FanDuel. Of all the hitters in the blended projections, Seager has the sixth-highest median projection on DraftKings and the eighth-highest on FanDuel.
Since returning from the IL 16 games ago, Seager is hitting .343 (23-for-67) with seven doubles, five home runs, and a whopping .427 wOBA. He has averaged 12.7 DraftKings points and 17.3 FanDuel points per game over that stretch, with a 60.7% hard-hit rate and 19.6% barrel rate.
In four straight games, Seager has produced multiple hits. He had four extra-base hits in the weekend set against Seattle while helping the Rangers stack up 30 runs. They’ll look to keep rolling against the Cardinals, who start their series with veteran Adam Wainwright ($7,100) on the mound. This season, Wainwright has struggled against left-handed hitters like Seager, allowing them to hit .400 with a .469 wOBA.
Nick Castellanos ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Castellanos is a solid option to consider whenever the Phillies face a lefty. He’s a career .302 hitter against southpaws with a .368 wOBA. On Monday, the Phillies open their series against his former team with a matchup against Joey Wentz ($6,000). Whether he’s extra fired up to face his former club or not, he should be in a good spot against Wentz.
Castellanos also gets a massive boost from his short-term form. Castellanos has gotten off to a torrid start in June, going 11-for-17 (.647) in four games with a double, two home runs, and an insane .690 wOBA. He has also been pretty locked in over his past 10 games, averaging 11.2 DraftKings points and 14.0 FanDuel points per contest by going 18-for-41 (.439) with a .487 wOBA and six multi-hit performances.
Another factor in his favor is that he has excellent splits at home, hitting .363 with four of his seven homers and a .432 wOBA.
Using the blended projections, Castellanos is in the top 10 in ceiling projection among all outfielders on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is a little better value on FanDuel, where he brings a 78% Bargain Rating.
