The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Mike Tauchman ($2,500): Outfielder, Chicago Cubs
After years of failing to live up to expectations, Tauchman has finally recaptured some of the glory that made him an impact player in 2019. Tauchman has the second-best OPS of his career and has been promoted to the top of the Cubs lineup as a result. Still, his salary doesn’t reflect his fantasy ceiling, making him the top-rated bargain on tonight’s slate.
The Cubs’ outfielder has had success finding the meaty part of the bat, posting a 40.3% sweet spot rating. That’s contributing to a .403 expected slugging percentage, a benchmark that Tauchman remains short of. Nevertheless, Tauchman has found his power stroke lately, with three of his last seven hits going for extra bases, including two long balls.
Moreover, the left-handed batting Tauchman has the added advantage of taking on righty Taijuan Walker. The Philadelphia Phillies pitcher ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in virtually every analytics category, giving Tauchman an unneeded edge in this matchup. The 32-year-old is already slugging .410 of right-handers.
Jesse Winker ($2,400): Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Winker hasn’t held up his end of the bargain this year. The former All-Star has the worst OPS of his career and has been slowed down by injuries throughout the campaign. Still, he’s showing signs of life over his recent sample and has the underlying metrics to support improved production.
Winker enters Thursday’s showdown against the Mets with three hits over his previous two games, including one double, two RBI, and one run scored. Extending our scope further back reveals an improved standard from the Brewers outfielder. Since returning from injury on June 17, Winker has a .346 slugging percentage, above his season-long mark of .254.
There is a growing disconnect between Winker’s metrics and his usual standard, making him a natural progression candidate toward the end of the season. We’re anticipating ongoing success from Winker, and that’s reflected in our projections, highlighting him as an undervalued commodity.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($11,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Somewhat flying in the face of our second value pick, one pitcher stands above the rest on the evening docket. Scherzer has turned a corner over his last couple of starts, flashing vintage stuff against quality opponents. He’s expected to sustain that form against the Brew Crew.
The three-time Cy Young winner has allowed just three earned runs across 14.0 innings pitched, striking out 16. Further, he’s decreased his WHIP beneath 1.00, allowing 13 baserunners over that stretch.
Although consistency has been an issue, Scherzer still has Cy Young-worthy stats. The future Hall of Famer has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his previous 11 outings, including five quality starts with a 6-1 record. Combined with his increased strike-out totals, Scherzer’s been a forgotten-about fantasy stud.
Citi Field has been a safe haven for Scherzer, amplifying his fantasy value against the Brewers. The 38-year-old has a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home and is a perfect 2-0 in four starts. Milwaukee doesn’t have an imposing offense, and Scherzer’s in fine form. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin and is poised to end the month on a high note.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Few things bring as much upside as teeing off on Chase Anderson at Coors Field. Those are the circumstances facing the Dodgers as they try to escape with a series win against the Rockies. The Dodgers will be led by Betts, who is coming off one of his best efforts of the season.
The Dodgers’ leadoff hitter put up a whopping 40.7 FanDuel points in Wednesday’s loss, going 1-for-2 at the dish with three walks, three RBI, and two runs scored. More impressively, that was the third time in five games in which Betts went yard, yielding multiple RBI with each swat.
As exceptional as his performances have been, Betts is still below his expected slugging percentage, implying more room for growth. That’s validated by Betts’ other analytics, as he still rates among the top 10% of hitters in expected weighted on-base average, average exit velocity, and chase rate.
Even if he’s underperformed his expected stats, he’s still been pretty darn good against right-handers this season (via PlateIQ):
Betts is rounding into MVP form ahead of the All-Star break, showing no signs of slowing down. Anderson has been tagged for 16 runs over his last 5.2 innings pitched, including five homers. The Dodgers’ utilityman will add gas to that fire as he reaches his fantasy ceiling in Denver.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($9,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Surprisingly, the Blue Jays have leaned into their starting pitching this year, taking the burden off their batting order. Blue Jays’ starters are tied for the fifth-most wins this season, and Bassitt has been a fundamental part of their achievements. He should help Toronto close out their series against the Giants with a win in Thursday’s rubber match.
Bassitt confuses batters with his insane eight-pitch repertoire. The soft-throwing righty has a plethora of offerings, inducing a 23.1% whiff rate or better on five pitches. Further, he uses six of the eight offerings as put-away pitches, depending on where he’s at in the count. His sweeper has been his most effective pitch, as Bassitt uses it 11.5% of the time with a 39.7% swing-and-miss rate.
Like most starting pitchers, Bassitt’s best efforts have come at home. He’s allowed just 23 hits across 46.1 innings, dropping his WHIP to 0.82 at the Rogers Centre. Additionally, his K/9 rate jumps to 8.2 in Toronto, with a 3-1 record. According to our MLB Models, he’s the only person who could come close to matching Scherzer’s efficiency on the evening slate.
Hitters
Kyle Tucker ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Astros have some ground to make up in the standings, and they’ll need their best players to step up if they want to defend their title come October. Houston has fallen out of playoff contention and further behind the Rangers for the AL West lead, jeopardizing their postseason aspirations. Nevertheless, they continue to trot out an above-average lineup that is due for elevated output.
Tucker’s production has been admirable, but it should be better. The former fifth-overall pick is below expected averages and further off career norms. Tucker is putting up the worst slugging percentage of his career, falling nearly 50 points below expected. However, he has used the past few games to inch closer to those levels.
The Astros outfielder enters Thursday’s interleague matchup on a five-game hitting streak. Across that modest sample, Tucker has totaled seven hits, five runs, and three RBI. Over half of those hits have gone for extra bases, with Tucker delivering three doubles and one home run. That’s foreshadowing what’s to come for Tucker as we approach the All-Star Game.
George Springer ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Blue Jays’ bats have been as reliable as usual. Toronto’s year-over-year metrics have decreased, and Toronto’s top hitters haven’t produced as expected. However, they’ve vastly improved their traditional stats over the previous week and have seen a resurgence among their veteran players. The Jays’ have been steadied by Springer, who remains undervalued in tonight’s finale.
The Jays’ outfielder is having the best month of his season. Springer has a .845 OPS in June, translating to increased run production. The two-time Silver Slugger has accounted for 27 runs, driving in 12 and coming around to score 15 times. A lot of that output has come more recently, with Springer recording 16 hits, seven runs, and seven RBI over the last ten contests.
Toronto enters tonight’s battle against the Giants with one of the highest implied team totals. Springer should continue to be an integral part of the Jays’ scoring, exceeding the implied value of his salaries.
