The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Willie Calhoun ($2,200): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Near the bottom of the salary chart, the model likes Willie Calhoun as a bargain option on today’s slate. The Yankees outfielder has been a part-time player most of his career but is getting some regular at-bats in the Yankees lineup this season.
He is batting .240/.309/.416 overall on the year, which is right near his career averages. In 12 starts since May 25, Calhoun has produced six double-digit DraftKings point totals, including two games with a home run over the weekend.
The Yankees have a difficult matchup against Max Scherzer and the Mets. Calhoun is an interesting contrarian play on the slate with a consistent record of positive Plus/Minus performances.
Ryan Noda ($2,700): First Baseman, Oakland Athletics
In more than 50% of Ryan Noda’s plate appearances, the ball is never put in play. He has both one of the highest walk rates (19.5%) and strikeout rates (31.6%) in the league.
His .249 batting average is pedestrian, but the walks elevate his wOBA to .378, in the top 8% of all MLB hitters. That gives him a relatively safe floor for his salary range. The upside may be capped with only seven home runs and 25 RBI on the year, but Noda is consistently producing double-digit DraftKings results, with three in his last seven games.
The Athletics face right-hander Yonny Chirinos making a spot start for the Rays. Chirinos is 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 34.2 total innings.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($9,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Age may finally be getting to perennial All-Star Max Scherzer. At 38 years old, he is having a down year by his high standards but is still an above-average pitcher in the league.
He is 5-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 10 starts this season. He has four positive Plus/Minus outings in his last five starts. The model loves Scherzer as the highest-rated pitcher on the slate today.
Even when he gives up runs, like the five earned runs in his last start, Scherzer saved the fantasy fallout with 11 strikeouts.
The Yankees offense hasn’t eclipsed three runs in their last four games.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
The batting average may be down this season for Mookie Betts, but his power and production have not fallen off. He is batting .263/.367/.534 on the season.
Betts is in the top 7% of MLB hitters with a .541 xSLG and .396 xwOBA. His 17 home runs boost his ceiling potential, and he has exploded with four homers already this month. In June, Betts is hitting .324/.419/.649, including a 43.0 DraftKings point game on June 2.
Lance Lynn takes the mound for the White Sox today at 4-6 with a 6.72 ERA.
This is a good spot to pay up for Betts.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Like the first place Minnesota Twins, Pablo Lopez sits at a .500 record (3-3) after 13 starts this season. He has a 4.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Lopez is third in the American League with 92 strikeouts this season, with the highest K% of his career (28.6%). He has nine positive Plus/Minus performances in his 13 starts, including four 20+ DraftKings point games in his last seven.
The Brewers have a conservative implied run total on today’s slate. The model likes Lopez as a mid-tier pitching play.
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Hitters
Corey Seager ($5,300 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Corey Seager is having a career year in his ninth MLB season. Overall, he is batting .348/.409/.600 with seven home runs and 34 RBI. He is in the top-2% of the league with a .593 xSLG and .420 xwOBA.
In June, Seager has taken it up another notch, hitting .415/.478/.683. He has clearly outperformed his salary level with a +71.88 Plus/Minus on the season.
Seager faces Jaime Barria of the Angels today for a spot start. Barria is 2-2 with a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings. Expect multiple pitchers to take the mound early for the Angels.
Mauricio Dubon ($3,500 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
A career .257 hitter, Mauricio Dubon is out ahead of his skis this season, batting .300/.326/.401. He has one of the lowest K% and lowest walk rates in the league, creating a lot of balls in play for potential fantasy scoring.
Dubon excels against lefties with a .342 wOBA and .119 ISO. He gets a left-hander on the mound today in Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Corbin is 4-6 with a 4.89 ERA.
This is a good spot to insert Dubon in lineups at a reasonable price.
