The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ramón Laureano ($2,500): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
There haven’t been a lot of bright spots this season for the A’s, but Laureano is starting to produce good bargain numbers.
Laureano was once a rising star with the A’s, but injuries and a PED suspension have derailed him over the past few seasons. In his 49 games this season, he’s hitting just .227 but does have five home runs and seven stolen bases.
On Monday, Laureano brings a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, the highest of any player on Monday’s seven-game main slate.
Laureano had an 11-game hitting streak that ended on Sunday when he went 0-for-3. Despite going hitless, he still managed double-digit DKFP with two walks and a stolen base. During his hitting streak, Laureano went 13-for-38 (.342) with two doubles, a triple, and three stolen bases, averaging 9.2 DraftKings points per game.
Since the A’s lineup lacks many strong offensive options, Laureano usually hits in a premium spot in the lineup and is projected to hit cleanup again on Monday. He’ll be facing the Rays’ Zach Eflin, who has been good this season but has bad splits on the road.
Laureano isn’t the only bargain from Oakland that pops in the projections. Four of the top five Bargain Ratings come from the Oakland lineup, including Jonah Bride, JJ Bleday, and Shea Langeliers.
Maikel Garcia ($2,600): Third Baseman, Kansas City Royals
The Royals are another team that has several options with strong Bargain Ratings on Monday as they face Luke Weaver and the Reds.
Garcia has a 90% Bargain Rating and is one of my favorite bargain options in the Royals’ lineup due to his solid recent form and high ceiling.
The 23-year-old has played 32 games in the Majors since joining the Royals in early May. He has hit .264 overall with a .305 wOBA and five stolen bases to go with his one home run. In Triple-A, he showcased a little more power but is mainly considered a high-average speed player with strong hitting tools and stolen base potential.
Garcia had a pair of hits in Sunday’s series finale and has gone 15-for-49 (.306) over his past 15 games with three doubles, three stolen bases, and his one home run. Over that span, he has a .346 wOBA and an average of 7.1 DKFP per contest.
Even without a ton of power production, he’s a solid bargain play since he regularly gets on base and can steal a base to deliver strong value.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
James Paxton ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
After missing all of last season and not getting a win since August of 2020 coming into this year, Paxton has had quite a renaissance with the Red Sox. The 34-year-old lefty has the highest median and ceiling projection on Monday night’s slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also brings good relative value since his salary is only the fifth-highest among starting pitchers on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Paxton has the highest strikeout prediction of any starting pitcher on this slate and should be in an excellent spot to pick up a win as well, with his -250 moneyline odds ranking second on the slate.
Paxton has gone 2-1 in his five starts this season with a solid 3.81 ERA and 3.54 FIP. He had one subpar start but has allowed two runs or fewer in four contests with at least 21 DraftKings points and at least 36 FanDuel points in each. He has also piled up at least eight strikeouts in three of his five starts, including each of his two most recent outings.
In his last start, he posted a season-high 29 DraftKings points and 52 FanDuel points, exceeding salary-based expectations on both sites for the fourth time.
The Rockies on the road have struggled on offense, ranking in the bottom third in the league in runs, batting average, and wOBA.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) at Texas Rangers
Ohtani has been crushing it at the plate over the past few weeks as he continues to build up equity ahead of this offseason’s expected bidding war. While he plays DH most of the time, he is an outfielder on both FanDuel and DraftKings and can also move to 1B on DraftKings.
Wherever he fits in your lineup, he brings one of the highest ceilings of any hitter, given his current form. He has hit safely in eight straight games and 11 of his past 12. Over those dozen games, he has gone 19-for-49 (.388) with four doubles, a triple, and six home runs. He has a .543 wOBA and has averages of 15.0 DraftKings points and 19.7 FanDuel points per contest.
Using our new PlateIQ tool, you can see just how impressive Ohtani’s numbers have been against right-handers over the past 30 days:
On Monday, Ohtani has the highest median and ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to THE BAT X. He ranks very highly in the FantasyLabs projections as well, offering a great blend of security and ceiling.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Matthew Liberatore ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
While the blended projections confirm strongly that Paxton is the top starting pitching option in terms of ceiling and value, they also indicate that Liberatore is underpriced and has the potential to deliver a strong outing at home against the Giants.
The Cardinals’ lefty has made four appearances (three starts) and allowed 10 earned runs in 15 innings. His past two starts have been less than great, but both were on the road in tough matchups against the Guardians and Rangers. He showed more upside in his lone home start this season. In that game, he held the Brewers to just three hits in five shutout innings to produce 23.65 DraftKings points and 39.0 FanDuel points.
The first-round pick from 2018 likely needs a strong outing to keep his spot in the rotation and gets a good matchup against the Giants. San Francisco broke through for 13 runs on Sunday but had just two total runs in their two previous games. If you throw out their trip to Denver, they had just 11 runs in their five previous games, so their offense can sometimes disappear, especially against lefties.
Liberatore brings the highest projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on FanDuel in the blended projections, and he brings a 79% Bargain Rating on that site as well. On DraftKings, he has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus of those taking the mound.
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Hitters
Corbin Carroll ($5,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Despite his lefty-lefty matchup against Matt Strahm, Carroll is too hot to overlook. The matchup isn’t nearly as bad as it looks either, since Strahm is only an opener and has been on the struggle bus lately. Carroll has also proven impervious to matchups over the past month, carrying his team to the top spot in the National League West.
After his recent surge, the 22-year-old phenom is hitting .308 on the season with an impressive .271 ISO, .411 wOBA, and 159 wRC+. Over his 20 most recent contests, Carroll is hitting .367 with seven home runs and a .492 wOBA while also adding in nine stolen bases. Carroll is averaging 14.8 DraftKings points and 19.4 FanDuel points per contest in that span. He got even hotter over this past weekend, producing over 25 DraftKings points and 33 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.
Carroll can contribute in multiple categories bringing a high ceiling due to his power and speed. He is an excellent pay-up option in the outfield on this slate, especially since the Dbacks have the third-highest implied team total.
Elly De La Cruz ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) at Kansas City Royals
The Reds have become a fun team to watch over the past few weeks, as they’ve called up several of their young prospects. The highest touted prospect of the group is De La Cruz, and so far, the 21-year-old has lived up to the hype.
He has hit safely in each of his six games, going 8-for-22 (.364) with a home run, a .473 wOBA, and three stolen bases for an average of 14.2 DraftKings points and 14.2 FanDuel points per game.
He brings an extremely high ceiling and relatively low risk at his midrange salary. He can slide to either 3B or SS on both sites, bringing plenty of upside to his matchup against Zack Greinke ($7,000) and the Royals. De La Cruz is 7-for-15 (.467) in his splits against righties and should continue his impressive arrival on Monday night.
