The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dane Dunning ($6,600): Pitcher, Texas Rangers
Dane Dunning is having a career year for the Rangers with a 7-1 record and 2.69 ERA, far below his career 4.06 mark.
PlateIQ shows Dunning is allowing just 38.5 hard hit % against left-handed hitters on the season, and the Red Sox plan to load the lineup with six lefties today. All nine batters are projected for below-average fantasy production today, with four batters that strike out in more than 25% of plate appearances.
Dunning has a fairly low 15.8 K% on the season but posted 10 strikeouts in his last outing for the first time this year. That burst gave him 37.11 DraftKings points on June 28 against the Tigers. If he can get anywhere close to that production today, he is a strong bargain play.
Willi Castro ($2,200): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Near the minimum salary threshold, Willi Castro provides multiple methods of scoring fantasy points. His speed on the base paths has turned into 17 stolen bases so far this season, and his 33.6 hard hit % has led to a strong .702 OPS for the price.
Castro is batting .253/.320/.382 for the Twins but lacks in power with five home runs and 16 RBI. The ceiling is not massive without home run potential, but Castro can still manufacture solid fantasy totals. Yesterday, he scored 19.0 DraftKings points with a hit, two walks, and two stolen bases.
The Twins face Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks today. The 39-year-old righty is 1-8 with a 5.15 ERA on the season. Castro is an interesting cheap option on the slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,400 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) at Tampa Bay Rays
The model loves Aaron Nola‘s ceiling potential against the Rays. On the season, Nola is 7-5 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
The Rays and Phillies have two of the lowest implied run totals on the slate in what Vegas expects to be a pitcher’s duel between Nola and Zach Eflin.
Despite an up-and-down season, Nola has shown ceiling potential with three 30+ DraftKings points games. His latest came on June 5 against the Detroit Tigers, where he struck out 12 batters in seven innings to notch 41.35 fantasy points. Nola has a wide range of outcomes against the Rays.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
With a +7.00 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, Kyle Tucker is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has three home runs and 11 RBI over his last five games.
On the year, Tucker is swatting .295/.370/.487 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI. He is in the top-6% of hitters with a .387 xwOBA and 12.6 K%.
The Astros face Kyle Freeland and the Rockies today. Freeland has struggled to a 4-8 record and 4.88 ERA. He has allowed 16 runs over his last three starts. This could be a bonanza for Tucker and the Astros.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Jesus Luzardo ($10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
In his fifth major league season, Jesus Luzardo is having the strongest campaign of his career. He is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 17 starts.
Luzardo has a 28.4 K% and 6.1 BB%, both better than league averages. His salary has increased steadily over the season from $7,800 at the opener. He has responded with 10 positive Plus/Minus games in his 17 starts.
With at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts, Luzardo has a lot of upside today against the Cardinals.
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Hitters
Jose Altuve ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Astros will be a popular stack today against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. Vegas gives them the highest implied run total on the slate.
Jose Altuve is having a down year by his lofty standards since joining the Astros on May 19. He is hitting .264/.371/.479 on the year with six home runs and 18 RBI in 32 games.
With a .400 wOBA and .209 ISO, Altuve normally feasts on left-handed pitching. That bodes well for a plus matchup against Freeland, though his 2023 numbers have not lived up to that trend.
Altuve has three home runs in his last six games. This could be a great spot to get back on track toward his usual production numbers.
Christian Yelich ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Christian Yelich is showing signs of returning to his peak production levels of 2018 and 2019. Yelich is batting .282/.379/.452 on the season with 10 home runs and 41 RBI.
He is adding increased value on the base paths this season with 19 stolen bases so far, equaling his entire season total from 2022. Yelich has three 20+ DraftKings point games in his last six, packing the stat sheet with one home run, one triple, two doubles, and seven RBI in that span.
The Cubs will start veteran Kyle Hendricks today. In seven starts this year, Hendricks is 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
