The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dominic Canzone ($2,100): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
On Monday, it looks like it’s time to re-enter the CAN-zone!
The Diamondbacks’ rookie outfielder has a 97% Bargain Rating with a salary barely over the minimum on DraftKings. In his 15 games since being called up, he has gone 9-for-38 (.237) with two doubles, a home run, and eight RBI. He had multiple hits in three straight games before going 0-for-3 on Sunday.
Canzone showed great potential this year with the Reno Aces in Triple-A. He had a .354 batting average and .449 wOBA while smashing 16 homers in 71 games.
He has already shown a flair for the dramatic with some big hits against Seattle over the weekend and is projected to continue hitting fifth in the lineup. Arizona will take on Alex Cobb in San Francisco to start their divisional series. Cobb has been good at home, but he has allowed lefties to post a .323 wOBA against him this season, so there should be opportunities for Canzone.
Nick Madrigal ($2,200): Third Baseman, Chicago Cubs
Madrigal is the only player on the nine-game DraftKings slate with a 99% Bargain Rating, and he’s projected to bat ninth against lefty Andrew Abbott when the Cubs open their home series against Cincinnati.
Madrigal’s salary is still extremely low after he was sidelined for almost a month with a hamstring strain. He was activated on Saturday and started at 3B in both the Cubs’ weekend contests with the Cards. On Saturday, he went 2-for-7 with a double and a run to produce 10 DraftKings points.
Madrigal has been a pretty solid producer when available this season with a .278 batting average, seven stolen bases, and a .311 wOBA. While he doesn’t offer much power, with only three homers in 197 MLB games, he has good contact skills and gets on base at a good enough clip to be viewed as a “second leadoff” hitter at the bottom of the order.
In his career, Madrigal has hit .293 against lefties, so he’s a solid way to get some reliable cheap production with minimal risk of coming up empty.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) at New York Yankees
Glasnow and Charlie Morton are the two big arms to consider building around on Monday night, and I like Glasnow’s ceiling a little better since he has a higher K Prediction.
The Rays’ righty will be working on an extra day of rest, and he has been turning in longer outings in his last few turns through the rotation. He was limited to shorter outings after a delayed start to the season but has gone 4-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 11 starts.
Glasnow has been rounding into form with 55 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings over his past six starts with a 2-2 record, a 2.23 ERA, and a 1.99 FIP. Glasnow has at least 23 DraftKings points and 38 FanDuel points in each of those six outings, averaging 26.8 DraftKings points and 45.2 FanDuel points per game.
On Tuesday, Glasgow went seven strong innings against the Marlins and finished with eight strikeouts, 31.35 DraftKings points, and 52 FanDuel points. The seven innings matched his season-high, which he set in his previous outing against the Orioles.
Monday’s matchup will be his first time facing the Yankees this season, but New York’s lineup isn’t nearly as potent as it has been in recent years. The Yankees have hit just .231 over the past 30 days, averaging four runs per contest. You can see using our PlateIQ tool how much the Yankees have struggled against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days:
Getting Aaron Judge back in the mix should help, but this is still a lineup that you don’t need to fear.
Glasnow also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Acuna became the first player in MLB history to stack up 50 stolen bases and 20 home runs before the calendar even gets to August. Acuña has shown no signs of slowing down either, swiping his 51st bag of the season on Sunday and collecting another multi-hit performance.
He and Fernando Tatis Jr. are neck-and-neck for the top ceiling projection on Monday, but there are weather concerns to consider at Coors Field, which makes Acuña a better option.
On the season, he’s averaging an impressive 12.8 DraftKings points and 16.6 FanDuel points per game, but he still is somehow trending in the right direction. Since the All-Star break, he has been especially aggressive on the bases, with 10 stolen bases in 14 games. He has also hit three home runs during that span and averaged 13.7 DraftKings points and 17.6 FanDuel points.
Acuña has favorable splits at home and against righties, so this matchup with Griffin Canning at Truist Park should set him up for another big game. He brings multiple ways to go off with a monster performance which gives him a high ceiling and a high floor in almost every matchup, including Mondays.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Nick Pivetta ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Pivetta is one of the most fascinating wild cards on Monday’s slate, making his return to the rotation after a stint in the bullpen. Early in the season, Pivetta made eight starts and struggled to a 3-3 record with a 6.30 ERA and 5.75 FIP. After being sent to the bullpen, he has found his footing with a 1.98 ERA and 2.57 FIP in 17 relief appearances. This will be his first start since May 16, but he should be relatively stretched out after throwing over 75 pitches in three of his past four games and serving as the bulk reliever after an opener got things underway.
According to THE BAT X projections, Pivetta has the third-highest ceiling projection on both FanDuel and DraftKings. On DraftKings, he’s particularly attractive, with a 54% Bargain Rating. He also brings the highest projected Plus/Minus of any starting pitcher on DraftKings and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Like Glasnow, his upside is closely tied to this strikeout production. In 41 innings out of the bullpen, he had 58 strikeouts. He also had at least five strikeouts in his last five multi-inning appearances, highlighted by a dominant 13-strikeout performance in Oakland with 42.3 DraftKings points and 63 FanDuel points.
He has that kind of upside if he can translate his bullpen success back to the rotation, and it will be fascinating to see how his start plays out in the late game against the Mariners.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
Sign Up, Get $200 Deposit Bonus
Hitters
Triston Casas ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) at Seattle Mariners
Casas has outperformed salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his past nine starts and five of his past six on FanDuel.
The rookie started the season slowly but turned things around with a great July. He hit .349 with seven homers, a .429 ISO, and a .502 wOBA. He has hit safely in 12 of his 14 games since the All-Star break, with a .597 wOBA and 290 wRC+.
He should be in a good spot against George Kirby. Kirby has been solid overall this season, but 10 of his 14 homers allowed have come to left-handed hitters, who have a .333 wOBA against him.
As a very affordable 1B option, Casas can allow you to pay up for top hitters in other spots while still bringing a high ceiling at a power position.
Luis Campusano ($3,100 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
I’m always on the lookout for cheap catchers that come with upside. It’s not typically a position I pay up for, but I don’t want to totally punt it, either. Using the 50/50 projections, Campusano stands out as a great option if the weather holds off in Denver.
He brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings using the blended projections, behind only his teammate Tatis. On FanDuel, he provides the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at C/1B behind William Contreras.
The 24-year-old Campusano was sidelined for three months after a sprained left thumb that required surgery. Since returning, he has gone 11-for-37 (.297) with two doubles, a home run, and a .333 wOBA. He has gone 5-for-17 (.412) with a home run and a .441 wOBA in his small sample size against lefties this season, so getting him against Austin Gomber with the added boost of playing at Coors Field is a great situation to target.
If you plan on playing Campusano but the weather becomes too much of a problem, Connor Wong and Carson Kelly are affordable catching options in the late games that can be used as pivots.
