The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house num erous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Kirilloff ($2,700): First Baseman, Minnesota Twins
If it’s not broken don’t fix it. Alex Kirilloff is our first DraftKings bargain value, as he still remains affordable at only $2,700. Kirilloff homered last Friday and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last 10 games, including four home runs and 14 RBIs over that time. He is tied for the most Pro Trends on the slate and has a 98% Bargain Rating. Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Kirilloff’s numbers are incredible, with a .300 ISO and a .465 wOBA (via PlateIQ):
The Twins are implied for 5.4 runs as they have a Team Value Rating of 94 with a matchup against Royals right-hander Brady Singer. Projected to bat third for the Twins tonight, Kirilloff stands out as an elite value as he also ranks fifth in THE BAT X projections for the highest Plus/Minus on the slate. The Twins represent a great team stack, but it all starts with Kirilloff.
Tom Murphy ($2,400): Catcher, Seattle Mariners
One of the most popular catcher options for this 14-game slate is Mariners’ Tom Murphy, who has a 97% Bargain Rating. Murphy is projected to bat fifth for the Mariners, who have a 4.9 implied run total. In his last five games, Murphy has four runs scored, with four of his five hits being extra-base hits, including two home runs. His .276 ISO leads all catchers if he qualified, but he does not because he has only played in 38 games. Murphy’s hard-hit rate of 41.3% is also one of the league’s best.
Murphy will get the platoon advantage against Diamondbacks southpaw Tommy Henry who has an average 4.01 ERA but a very low 16.3% strikeout rate. In his 15 starts, Henry only has three games with over five strikeouts, while he has given up three earned runs in back-to-back starts. Murphy is only $2,400 on DraftKings and provides salary savings for all lineups.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($10,800 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman is the clear-cut best pay-up option as he has the highest projected ceiling for THE BAT X and our in-house projections. In his second season with the Blue Jays, Gausman is leading the team with a 3.18 ERA and has 162 strikeouts. After not allowing a home run in four straight starts, Gausman gave up four home runs in his last start but still managed to end the game with over 20 DraftKings points, as his bread and butter this year is capturing strikeouts.
Gausman has a career-high 32.9% strikeout rate and leads the slate with a projected strikeout mark of 7.92. The Angels rank inside the top 10 in strikeout rate as a team and are only implied for 3.6 runs, which is tied for the lowest total tonight. With Angels star Mike Trout on the injured list, this is a great bounce-back spot for Gausman, who is a -205 home favorite.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox
Among the pay-up options, Jose Ramirez leads all batters with seven Pro Trends and has the highest projected ceiling across both sites. Ramirez displayed his ceiling Wednesday night with two home runs bringing his hard-hit rate once again above 36% for the season. Notoriously known for putting the ball in play, Ramirez has a career-low 9.7% strikeout rate and only has three strikeouts in his last 45 plate appearances. With his combination of power and speed, he has a high ceiling.
Ramirez will get a matchup against White Sox right-hander Touki Toussaint, who is making a spot-start for Lucas Giolito, who was traded away on Wednesday. After showing a little bit of promise with the Braves, Toussaint is with his third team in the last two seasons and has yet to find the winner’s circle this year. Toussaint also has posted a career-low 18.9% strikeout rate. Ramirez has done all of his damage against right-handed pitching with a .319 average and a .531 slugging percentage.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
One of the biggest pricing discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel is Mets pitcher Max Scherzer. The 39-year-old veteran is a fantastic play on DraftKings with his $9,400 salary but is just a tournament pivot from Gausman on FanDuel, where he is only $100 cheaper. Scherzer hasn’t been as dominant as years past, but still provides an upside, especially in this spot against the Nationals. Scherzer is a -190 home favorite against the second-worst team in the National League.
Where Scherzer has gotten into the most trouble this season is with the long ball. He has a career-high 1.97 HR/9 and has given up nine home runs in his last four starts, including four in his last start. Luckily for him, the Nationals are tied for the second-least amount of home runs. This is also a revenge spot for Scherzer, and we know what type of attitude he will bring.
Hitters
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Toronto Blue Jays
The trade rumors didn’t cool off Shohei Ohtani, who homered twice in his last game leading the Angels to their eighth win in their last nine games. If anyone is going to take Gausman deep, it will be Ohtani, who leads the league with 38 home runs and has 80 RBIs. Getting exposure to Ohtani is a necessity in lineups that fade Gausman, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. Ohtani is also easy to fit into builds on DraftKings with his first baseman and outfield eligibility.
Ohtani’s career-high .377 ISO towers above the rest of the league and his 12 stolen bases rank inside the top 25. Gausman is an elite pitcher, but where he can be taken advantage of is with left-handed power batters. Gausman’s WHIP rises to 1.30 from 1.00 against left-handed batters this year. Being the most feared hitter in baseball, Ohtani has slate-breaking upside.
C.J. Cron ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Having this be the first time that Coors Field is mentioned in this article goes to show what kind of matchup we have in store with the Rockies and Athletics. Two of the worst teams in baseball collide at the best hitter’s park in the league. Normally it is best to target the road team in Coors Field, but tonight the best player in this game is Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron who is expected to return after missing four straight games. Cron has been red hot with a home run in four of his last five games.
Cron has gotten at least one hit and scored a run in six consecutive games while averaging 14.7 DraftKings points per game over that time. He will get the platoon advantage against Athletics southpaw JP Sears, who has allowed five home runs and eight earned runs in his last two starts. Sears may lead the team with a 4.19 ERA, but he also has a 1.93 HR/9 this season.
