The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Will Brennan ($2,400): Outfield, Cleveland Guardians
If the Cleveland Guardians hope to catch the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central, they’ll need to get more out of the bottom of their lineup. Brennan has been a fixture in the bottom third and should produce in Thursday’s division battle against the Chicago White Sox.
Not surprisingly, the left-handed batting Brennan has superior splits against righties. The 25-year-old slugs .412 in that split, with 18 of his 21 extra-base hits coming off conventional arms. That also correlates with run production, as 25 of Brennan’s 27 RBI have come off right-handed pitching. Further, we’ve seen a modest boost in Brennan’s fantasy production over his recent sample. The Guardians outfielder has four hits over his last five games, scoring thrice, driving in one, and nabbing a stolen base.
As with most young hitters, Brennan’s best metrics come off the fastball. With Dylan Cease throwing his heater 41.3% of the time, Brennan will have plenty of good pitches to tee off. We like him to reach his fantasy ceiling in this AL Central showdown.
Dylan Carlson ($2,300): Outfield, St. Louis Cardinals
The floodgates have opened up for the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards are coming off a series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks, recording ten or more runs in two of the three outings. Carlson was conspicuously quiet in those thrashings but is set up for success versus Justin Steele and the Chicago Cubs.
Carlson’s best splits come against fastball-heavy southpaws, and Steele relies on his four-seamer and sinker 65.7% of the time. The Cardinals outfielder has a .403 slugging percentage against lefties and a .441 expected slugging percentage off fastballs. Moreover, Carlson’s actual slugging percentage against heaters (.415) is below the expected benchmark, implying he’s a progression candidate.
Splits notwithstanding, Wrigley Field is a hitter-friendly venue, and Steele’s metrics reflect that. He has a higher WHIP and batting average allowed at home, resulting in a slightly higher ERA. Carlson and the suddenly scorching Cardinals will compound those issues on Thursday.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kodai Senga ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
With the seasons that several other rookies are having, Senga has fallen out of the NL Rookie of the Year conversation. Still, he’s out-performed expectations and has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing New York Mets squad. We’re highlighting his metrics and potential as the top pitcher available on tonight’s slate.
Senga has been nothing short of sensational over his past few starts. He was removed early from his most recent outing due to a rain delay, but the ghost forkball pitcher remains a stud. The Japanese national hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game since the middle of June, with two of his last three outings meeting the quality start threshold. Additionally, he’s seen a surge in his strikeout metrics, with Senga punching out 32 across his last 22.1 innings pitched.
More importantly, that on-field success is grounded in solid underlying metrics. The 30-year-old sits in the 80th percentile or better in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and strikeout percentage. Senga can turn to any of his six offerings at any moment, inducing a 25.0% whiff rate or better on all but two of those pitches.
The Washington Nationals’ offensive metrics are overheating, and a correction phase is inevitable. Senga can help facilitate that regression as he continues his torrid pace from the past month. Based on our projections, Senga has the highest ceiling on the slate, and we expect him to live up to the hype.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
There are only a handful of marquee names on tonight’s three-game slate, but that doesn’t diminish Ramirez’s fantasy value. The four-time Silver Slugger has been scorching post-All-Star break and is poised for another strong showing against Cease.
Ramirez has been on another level since the Midsummer Classic. The former runner-up MVP has a .314 batting average with nine runs scored, seven RBI, and four stolen bases over the last couple of weeks. What he’s lacking in power, he’s making up for in volume with four multi-hit efforts.
It’s not like his power stroke has abandoned him completely, either. Ramirez has two homers and two doubles out of the All-Star break. Both long fly balls came in Wednesday’s win over the Kansas City Royals. That’s a good omen for tonight’s battle against Cease, an advantage also reflected in his PlateIQ profile. The Guardians’ third baseman leads the team in wOBA with above-average ISO, strikeout, and walk ratings against right-handed pitchers.
Ramirez remains one of the best contact hitters in the game, and that approach is paying off lately. He leads our aggregate projections by a wide margin and is easily the best hitter available on tonight’s mini slate.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Tanner Bibee ($7,200 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
As usual, the Guardians rely heavily on their pitching staff to keep them competitive. Quietly, Bibee has cemented himself as an integral part of the starting rotation, amplifying his fantasy value in the latter part of the year. Again, he projects as a top value against the White Sox.
Bibee has found another gear over the past month. The hard-throwing righty has allowed a paltry four earned runs across his last 29.2 innings pitched for a diminutive 1.20 ERA. Included in that five-game sample are three quality starts, a 10.3 K/9 rate, and 0.98 walks and hits per inning pitched.
The White Sox are in full sell mode, looking to ship off whatever pieces they can for another shot at things down the road. That’s reflected in their current metrics. The Southsiders have the sixth-worst OPS in the bigs over the past week, with the 12th-most strikeouts and eighth-fewest runs. Bibee’s reign continues as he solidifies himself as a top arm in the Guardians’ rotation.
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Hitters
Francisco Lindor ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Unfortunately for the Mets, the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. The uncertainty of what comes next for the Mets remains, but there is unwavering confidence in several pieces on the team. Among those is Lindor, who has improved his stats month-over-month since May. That upward trend continues in tonight’s battle against the Nats.
The Mets shortstop slumped immediately following the All-Star break but has five hits over his last four games. That sample includes one double, four runs scored, one RBI, and two stolen bags. That improves Lindor’s OPS to .848 in July, putting him on track to end July above his previous month-end benchmark for the third straight month.
Nats probable starter Josiah Gray has struggled with consistency this year, and he’s poised for a letdown in this one. Gray is coming off his best start of the season but was struggling mightily ahead of that outing. Before his last start, Gray had allowed nine earned runs over 10.0 innings, giving up three homers, 18 hits, and five walks.
Waves collide as Lindor’s upward trend inevitably knocks Gray back down to earth in this NL East battle.
Andres Gimenez ($4,300 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Rounding out our value picks is second baseman Gimenez. The 24-year-old is in fine form, looking to sustain his above-average standing over the previous week. According to our aggregate projections, he could reach his pinnacle on Thursday night.
Gimenez has had a productive month, punctuated by improved metrics this week. He’s got hits in three of his last four, with two of those three hits going for extra bases. That elevates his slugging percentage to .453 in July, the highest in any month this season.
Gimenez’s hot streak — and the trade of Amed Rosario — should solidify a spot near the top of the lineup. He’s projected to bat second on Thursday, using his left-handed bat as an advantage over right-hander Cease. That gives Gimenez every opportunity to reach his ceiling and continue his torrid pace.
