The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Seiya Suzuki ($3,100): Outfield, Chicago Cubs
Hits come in bunches for Seiya Suzuki, and the Chicago Cubs outfielder is proliferating. Still, his salary hasn’t caught up to reflect his current form, making him the top bargain value on Wednesday’s evening slate.
Since July 4, Suzuki has five multi-hit outings, three of which have come over the past week. Not surprisingly, his fantasy output reflects the recent surge, with Suzuki eclipsing double-digit fantasy points in four of seven contests. More importantly, his analytics profile supports ongoing growth. Suzuki remains below his career slugging percentage, despite putting up a career-best hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The cherry on top is that Suzuki and the Cubs get to tee off Lance Lynn. Lynn generously gives up an 11.1% barrel rate and a .461 slugging percentage, neither of which puts him above the 15th percentile. Suzuki isn’t done flexing. Now is the time to back him at a discounted price.
Oswald Peraza ($3,000): Second/Third Base, New York Yankees
It’s all hands on deck for the New York Yankees, who continue to deal with a rash of injuries. Oswald Peraza was included in the most recent set of call-ups, and the youngster is poised for a breakout effort against Jose Quintana.
As is the case with most bargain plays, there’s a contrarian angle to rostering Peraza. The infielder is substantially below his expected slugging percentage. He’s slugging a disappointing .204, below his expected benchmark of .318. Peraza has fallen even further off the pace since rejoining the Yankees in mid July, posting a forgettable .176 slugging percentage. Progression is inevitable for Peraza as he starts his march back toward normal ranges.
We’re anticipating a more robust fantasy performance Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. Quintana only has one start underneath his belt this season, but his metrics have been deteriorating for years. Trying to navigate the Yankees lineup in the Bronx will only compound his worrisome stats, and Peraza will be the beneficiary.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($10,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Very quietly, Framber Valdez is putting together a Cy Young-worthy campaign. The Houston Astros ace has a sparkling 2.94 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The Texas Rangers bats have cooled off recently, ensuring Valdez delivers another quality outing.
Valdez came out of the All-Star break guns-a-blazing. The southpaw struck out a season-best 13 against the Los Angeles Angels, following that up with a win against the lowly Oakland Athletics. Still, neither of those outings came at home, where Valdez has been utterly dominant.
Minute Maid Park has been Valdez’s security blanket all season. He’s compiled a seemingly unbeatable 2.11 ERA, allowing just 1.00 walks and hits per inning pitched. Moreover, he’s benefitted from the pitcher-friendly dimensions of his home park, permitting just two homers across 72.0 innings pitched for a minuscule 0.3 home runs per nine innings.
The Rangers’ metrics have dipped slightly over the last week, yielding fewer runs per game. Those issues have been more pronounced lately, with Texas recording just three runs in two of their previous four contests. There’s a reason Valdez is near the top of our median and ceiling projections. We’re highlighting him as the top arm available on today’s evening slate.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Valdez isn’t the only Astro set to shine in this rivalry matchup. Kyle Tucker has flourished of late and is projected to continue his upward trajectory against Andrew Heaney.
After months of underachieving, Tucker’s underlying metrics have ballooned over the past few weeks. His OPS is up to 1.253 in the month of July, yet he remains below his expected slugging percentage. Better, Tucker gets to feast on Heaney’s meatballs, enhancing his current pace.
Tucker is putting a charge into the ball, ranking in the 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage with a .537 mark. Although impressive, his actual slugging percentage of .522 is short of that, implying further progression is anticipated. Oddly enough, the left-handed batting Tucker does his best work against southpaws. Uncovering his lefty splits reveals a .615 slugging percentage, with 17 of his 43 extra-base hits coming against non-conventional arms in half the at-bats.
That potential is reflected in our aggregate modeling and PlateIQ. Tucker ranks second on the team in ISO and wOBA, validating his elite potential and setting the stage for a monster fantasy performance.
A sweep against their in-state rivals would pull the Astros level with the Rangers, heading into the final two months of the season. According to our projections, Tucker will do his part to help Houston gain the inside track.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($9,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Despite a bottomless budget and roster full of All-Stars, the New York Mets remain one of the worst-hitting teams in the bigs. Those offensive woes are even more pronounced against lefties, contributing to Carlos Rodon’s lofty projections. Considering the Mets’ ineffectiveness, we’re betting Rodon lives up to his ceiling in this Subway Series finale.
The big lefty returned earlier this month, tossing 5.1 innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium. He followed that up with two sub-optimal road outings but is poised for a bounce-back effort at home. Rodon has mastered the domain of Yankee Stadium, posting a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 walks and hits per inning pitched across five starts.
Of course, the Mets will help solidify that trend. The Queens’ residents sit sixth-last in OPS against lefties, adding the tenth-most strikeouts. Rodon’s salary doesn’t reflect his potential, and we expect him to thrive back in the Bronx.
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Hitters
Ian Happ ($3,300 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Outfielder Ian Happ is riding a modest four-game hitting streak into Wednesday’s Chi-Town showdown against the White Sox. More importantly, Happ’s proficiency at the plate has boosted his run production, elevating his fantasy appeal in this one.
Happ is a lock in the run-producing spots of the Cubs lineup. Typically batting third, Happ finds himself in the ideal position of being able to drive in and score runs, plainly evident over his recent sample. The switch-hitter scored six runs over his last three games, adding one double and an extra-base hit along the way. Those stats will likely persist against the gas can that is Lance Lynn.
Although he’s effective from both sides of the plate, Happ’s best efforts come against righties. His average, slugging percentage, and OBP are superior as a left-handed batter, with 22 of his 30 extra-base hits coming from the left side. Don’t overlook the value he brings to tonight’s docket.
Ozzie Albies ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
We’re targeting another switch-hitter with our final selection, shining a light on everything Ozzie Albies has to offer. Additionally, his fantasy value is elevated by an ideal pitching matchup in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park.
Granted, Albies has been mired in a bit of a slump lately, but he’s found a way to maintain his fantasy value despite limited success at the dish. The 26-year-old has just one hit over his previous six outings, a three-run dinger against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday. Nevertheless, he’s safely reached base in five straight, coming around to score all five times and highlighting his potential on the base paths.
The Atlanta Braves have steamrolled every pitcher they’ve faced this year, and there’s little Brayan Bello can do to slow that momentum. Albies has maintained his run production despite his batting woes. He should figure things out against Bello, adding another dimension to his already impressive baseline production.
