The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Kirilloff ($2,800): First Baseman, Minnesota Twins
Kirilloff got a late start to the season after offseason wrist surgery, but the 25-year-old lefty is starting to deliver on the hype that had him as one of the Twins’ top prospects over the past few seasons. On the season, he has hit .282 with eight homers and a .364 wOBA while usually hitting in the heart of the Minnesota order.
He has five multi-hit performances in his nine games since the All-Star break and has hit .333 over his 20 most recent games with five doubles, four homers, a .418 wOBA, and an average of 9.25 DKFP per contest.
Monday night, Kirilloff will be on the positive side of his splits against righty Luis Castillo. Kirilloff is only hitting .119 this year against lefties but has hit .323 against righties. Even though Castillo is a strong option as one of the better pitchers in play, he has had his ups and downs this year, especially against lefties, who he has let hit 12 of the 19 home runs he has allowed on their way to a .319 wOBA. Kirilloff has a good shot at staying hot in this matchup.
Kirilloff has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings on this slate and has outperformed salary-based expectations in six of his eight most recent matchups.
David Fry ($2,300): Catcher/Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
Fry has an 85% Bargain Rating on this slate and comes with the added value of being eligible at either catcher or in the outfield. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his past four games on main slates and is projected to bat sixth for Cleveland on Monday when they face lefty Ryan Yarbrough.
The Guardians have the second-highest Implied Run Total on the main slate, and they should be a good source of value against the struggling lefty. Yarbrough has gone 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 4.63 FIP in his 12 starts for the Royals.
You can see how the Guardians are expected to lineup against Yarbrough and how they have fared against southpaws this season using our PlateIQ tool:
You can see Fry’s ISO and wOBA in dark green in the sixth spot since he has hit lefties well so far this season.
The 27-year-old made his MLB debut for Cleveland on May 1 and has earned his way into more playing time. In his past 15 games, he has gone 13-for-40 (.325) with two home runs and two stolen bases. He came up clutch with a game-tying home run on Sunday with two outs in the ninth inning off of Craig Kimbrel and should continue to get more work if he keeps stepping up.
Against lefties, he has hit .345 with two homers and a .450 wOBA. If you run short on salary, catcher is always a good place to look for a cheap play. Fry is a solid option there or in the outfield on this slate and brings good upside while barely costing more than the minimum.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Darvish and Luis Castillo of the Mariners are the two big arms to consider this Monday. I like Darvish’s matchup much better, and he has the higher ceiling projection using THE BAT X projections.
Darvish has shown his ceiling off with two strong starts coming out of the All-Star break. He allowed only one run total over 12 innings with 16 strikeouts against the Phillies and Blue Jays. He averaged 50.5 FanDuel points and 28.3 DraftKings points in those two outings and has the potential to be in that neighborhood again on Monday in a great home matchup against the Pirates.
Over the past 30 days, Pittsburgh has the lowest ISO in the Major Leagues at just .126. The Pirates are hitting just .226 with a .285 wOBA over that span while also striking out in 26.3% of their plate appearances, which is the fourth-most over that span.
Darvish matches six Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and no other pitcher on the slate matches more than five in either format. He is projected for the second-most strikeouts, behind only Castillo, and the Pirates have the lowest Implied Run total of any team on the main slate.
It looks like a smash spot for Darvish, who has been a little inconsistent this season but has shown he still brings an elite ceiling.
Hitter
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Using THE BAT X projections, no other batter comes close to matching Guerrero’s ceiling projection this Monday. FantasyLabs projections also have him in the top seven ceiling options on the slate as he leads the Blue Jays to the left coast to take on the Dodgers in a three-game series to start the week.
Winning the Home Run Derby doesn’t seem to have messed with Vladdy’s swing at all. Since returning from the All-Star break, he has four homers in nine games and has hit .242 (8-for-33) with four walks, six RBI, and seven runs scored for an average of 10.0 DraftKings points and 13.5 FanDuel points per game.
Guerrero homered three times in his past four games coming into Monday’s matchup with Michael Grove, who has given up nine homers on his way to a 6.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP. It should be a smash spot for Guerrero, who has hit .293 with a .375 wOBA on the road this season.
Even though he isn’t cheap, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to THE BAT X projections. He also comes with a relatively low projected ownership of under 12% on each site.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Logan Allen ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The second-lowest Implied Run Total of the night belongs to the Royals, who have to deal with young lefty Logan Allen. The Guardians seem to continually churn out high-end pitchers, and this 24-year-old southpaw has shown he has a very high ceiling when he’s on his game.
Allen matches four Pro Trends on DraftKings and five on FanDuel, which trails only Darvish. Allen also has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction. Using the blended projections, he has the third-highest ceiling and median projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only the elite options of Darvish and Castillo.
Allen just returned from a trip back to Triple-A and looked sharp in his return with eight strikeouts in five shutout innings against the Pirates for 30.1 DraftKings points and 45 FanDuel points.
He has averaged 15.8 DraftKings points and 28.2 FanDuel points per start, with three ceiling games of at least 27 DraftKings points and 45 FanDuel points. He has that kind of ceiling against the Royals, who he faced earlier this season but only lasted 3 2⁄3 innings before reaching 98 pitches. Allen hadn’t given up a run but was so inefficient that he was forced to leave the game before qualifying for the win.
Monday night should be a good spot for Allen to continue to improve his efficiency and offer a strong return with an elite ceiling at a mid-level investment.
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Hitters
CJ Abrams ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Nationals are in a great spot as they welcome in the Rockies to start the week after sweeping the Giants over the weekend by a combined score of 21-4. The young Nats seem to be finding a little bit of rhythm, and one of the keys to their recent production has been the emergence of Abrams.
So far in July, Abrams has hit .353 with three doubles, two triples, three home runs, and 10 stolen bases. He has shown potential power and plenty of speed while averaging 12.8 DraftKings points and 16.1 FanDuel points per contest. His surge has also resulted in him moving from the bottom of the order to the leadoff spot.
Abrams has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops on DraftKings and the second-highest on the whole slate, trailing only Guerrero. On FanDuel, he checks in with the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops while still ranking in the top 15 overall. He matches five Pro Trends on DraftKings, the second-most on the slate, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games on both sites.
Travis Jankowski ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) at Houston Astros
Using the 50/50 projections, Jankowski has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on DraftKings and the fourth-hights on FanDuel. He is a great value option in the outfield as he steps into a larger role after the injury to Corey Seager (thumb). In the two games since Seager got hurt, Jankowski has moved to second in the batting order, and he’ll be a great option if he stays there against right-handed starters like Monday night’s probable opponent Brandon Bielak.
Jankowski has been on a very nice roll over his past 17 games and hit .352 (19-for-54) with two doubles, a home run, and seven stolen bases. He has averaged 8.8 DraftKings points and 11.1 FanDuel points per game over that stretch and should be locked into a good run-producing spot if he continues to bat second as projected. His speed and good form make him a nice value play to afford more power in other spots.
