The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
David Villar ($2,300): First/Third Base, San Francisco Giants
David Villar hasn’t been a regular contributor for the San Francisco Giants, but he has been more reliable when called upon lately. He should work his way back into the lineup in Thursday’s rubber match against the Cincinnati Reds and overachieve relative to his affordable salary.
Since June 14, four of Villar’s five hits have gone for extra bags. That modest sample includes three doubles and a home run across 20 at-bats for a noteworthy .550 slugging percentage. Even when it’s not translating to base hits, Villar is making solid contact. The 26-year-old has an impressive 14.5% barrel rate and 39.5% sweet spot rating, implying ongoing success is anticipated at the plate.
Even considering his recent surge, Villar is still well off his expected slugging percentage. The Giants’ infielder is at a .336 mark, with his expected slugging percentage almost 100 points higher at .431. Inferring from our aggregate projections, that form should continue with another strong showing on Thursday.
Trent Grisham ($2,400): Outfield, San Diego Padres
It’s easy to get lost in the commotion that is the San Diego Padres. Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto steal the spotlight with their gaudy metrics and flashy traditional stats but don’t lose sight of Grisham. The Padres outfielder has been one of the most consistent producers this season and has amplified his output over the past month.
Grisham’s OPS has jumped to .936 in July, but that has yet to impact his salary. He’s consistently hovering in the mid $2,000s salary-wise despite being an anchor at the bottom of the lineup and a springboard as the batting order turns over. Grisham has come around to score 11 times over his last 14 games, also driving in nine.
In reconciling his current form with his underlying metrics, Grisham is positioned for ongoing success with the Friars. His 14.9% barrel rate puts him among the top 9% of hitters, and his 13.0% walk rate makes him a threat every time he’s on base. There are flashier options available, but don’t discount Grisham’s contributions.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s a new day, but the same Strider leading our median and ceiling projections. The Atlanta Braves ace is coming off a disappointing showing but remains a force at home. He’s exactly what the Braves need to cool off the Arizona Diamondbacks and avoid their first sweep since the start of May.
Even after last week’s dud against the Chicago White Sox, Truist Park remains Strider’s fortress of solitude. The NL Cy Young frontrunner has a 15.0 K/9 rate at home, allowing just 46 hits over 58.2 innings pitched. Amazingly, that’s been his standard throughout his career. Strider has compiled a 14.5 K/9 rate across 28 career starts at home, with 0.98 walks and hits per inning pitched.
More importantly, the sustainability of those metrics is validated by elite analytics. Strider ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff rate, shockingly falling off to 96th percentile in chase rate. Although he has just three pitches, he mixes them masterfully, keeping hitters guessing every time they enter the batter’s box.
Also of note: Strider is a perfect 4-0 in day games this season and 8-2 throughout his career. We’re betting he shakes off the rust and lives up to his full potential, helping the Braves head into the weekend on a high note. That aligns with our projections, rating him as the top arm on today’s main slate.
Hitter
Austin Slater ($2,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Believe it or not, Slater is one of the pre-eminent hitters on today’s docket. The Giants outfielder trails only Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. with the third-best ceiling in our aggregate projections.
Injuries have limited him to 98 plate appearances, but Slater has made the most of those at-bats. The former eighth-round pick is sitting pretty with a .408 on-base percentage and a .506 slugging percentage, putting him tops on the team in OPS. Further, two of his four home runs on the season have come over the past five games, bumping his month-long slugging percentage up to .579.
Based on his metrics, we’re anticipating more of the same from Slater over the coming weeks. He’s off to a career-best hard-hit rate, putting a charge into 50.0% of his hits.
Lastly, Slater’s also got one of the more appealing PlateIQ profiles on the slate, with a .437 wOBA and 0.167 ISO against left-handed pitchers:
As implied, Slater saves his best efforts for southpaws, leaving Andrew Abbott nowhere to hide. His OPS climbs to 1.018, with three of his four long balls and two of his three doubles coming off lefties. This is a discounted rate for a top performer, and it’s not worth passing up.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Burnes continues to fly under the radar as an undervalued starting pitcher. The Milwaukee Brewers ace has seen his salary decrease over the past month, which is counterintuitive to his fantasy performances. Burnes has been at his best over the past few outings and is poised to extend his good fortune against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Burnes is coming off the best start of his season. The former Cy Young winner struck out 13 against the Reds, punctuating an improved spell from the righty. Burnes has allowed a minuscule four runs over his last 19.0 innings for a 1.89 ERA. Additionally, he’s seen a boost in his strikeout metrics, with a 12.3 K/9 rate and 0.74 walks and hits per inning pitched across the same three-game sample.
Lately, Philadelphia has taken a free-swinging approach at the dish. The Phillies have accumulated the sixth-most punchouts over the last couple of weeks. Although Burnes may not replicate his season-best effort, his stats support that he’s running hot these days. Combined with the Phillies’ diminished plate discipline, he should once again exceed the implied value of his fantasy salary.
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Hitters
Juan Soto ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Padres are doing their best to climb back into the NL playoff race. Although they’ve made moderate progress of late, there’s still more work to be done. If they want to make a sincere charge up the standings, they’ll need their best players to step up, starting with Soto.
After a tepid April, Soto has elevated his play back to expected levels. If we take out the first month of the season, Soto’s slugging percentage jumps to .497. Coming out of the All-Star break, that number moves even higher, with the three-time All-Star improving that benchmark to .619 over the second half.
As expected, Soto’s stats are propped up by inspired analytics. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit rate, and walk rate.
Pete Alonso ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Getting dethroned as Home Run King appears to have impacted Alonso’s confidence at the dish. The two-time home run champion has just one hit after the All-Star break, a long single last week against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nevertheless, expect Alonso to break out of his rut in the series finale against the Chicago White Sox.
Michael Kopech will be serving up taters for Alonso and the New York Mets. Kopech ranks in the 20th percentile in expected slugging percentage, yielding a 5.56 expected ERA. Worse, he hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning since the start of June, giving up homers in his past three starts.
Alonso needs a bone, and Kopech should bring him back to life. According to our algorithm, Alonso has one of the best ISO ratings on the slate and most Pro Trends working in his favor. He delivers in this one.
