The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000): Outfield, San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are charging up the standings, and it’s all thanks to their offense. San Fran has 32 runs scored across five games after the All-Star break, including 15 through its first two games against the Cincinnati Reds. Mike Yastrzemski has his chance to get in on the action in Wednesday’s series finale.
The Giants outfielder has been conspicuously quiet at the plate lately but is an ideal dark horse candidate to break out of his mini-slump. Yastrzemski’s slugging percentage has dipped to a sub-optimal .333 this month, below his expected mark of .453. Moreover, the left-handed batting Yastrzemski gets to tee off righty Graham Ashcraft, who’s been less than ideal this season. Ashcraft ranks in the 23rd percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, expected ERA, and strikeout percentage.
Yaz has fallen off the pace but should elevate his performance in this National League showdown. Projected to bat fourth on Wednesday, Yastrzemski will have plenty of opportunities to deliver meaningful fantasy points.
Seiya Suzuki ($3,300): Outfield, Chicago Cubs
We are not passing up the opportunity to roster one of the hottest hitters in the NL. Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki has been on a tear the past couple of weeks and is poised to maintain his play against the lowly Washinton Nationals.
Suzuki is coming off a four-hit effort on Tuesday night, totaling two runs, three RBI, and a dinger. That brings his slugging percentage up to .511 since July 4. As expected, his run production has increased with the improved discipline at the plate, with Suzuki contributing seven runs and five RBI. Those metrics are projected to continue against Trevor Williams. The soft-throwing righty has been serving them up all season, ranking in the 11th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 16th percentile in expected ERA.
Suzuki is running hot, and Williams doesn’t possess the stuff to cool him down. Contrarily, the Nats’ projected starter should facilitate ongoing production from the Japanese National as Suzuki heats up through the dog days.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Few pitchers bring as much upside as Luis Castillo pitching at home. Although it’s not reflected in his record, the reigning All-Star has been absurd at home. Further, he’s been seemingly unhittable over his past few starts, giving him a more robust advantage over the Minnesota Twins.
Safeco Field has been a haven for Castillo. The righty has allowed a paltry 50 hits across 71.1 innings pitched this year, factoring into just 0.93 walks and hits per inning pitched at home. More impressively, Castillo has reserved his best strikeout stuff for the Seattle Mariners faithful. His K/9 rate jumps to 10.7 at home, compared to 8.1 on the road.
Still, irrespective of venue, Castillo has thrived over his recent sample. He’s allowed more than three earned runs just once since May 16, and his WHIP has plummeted to 0.89 over 18.0 innings in July.
According to our aggregate projections, Castillo is the top arm available on Wednesday’s slate. He leads our median and ceiling projections. The Twins are coming off a ten-run outing last night, but that has been the exception and not the rule to their offensive woes this season.
Castillo will facilitate that regression tonight.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
At his best, Fernando Tatis Jr. is a pre-eminent player and MVP candidate. Lately, we’re seeing more and more of his MVP-caliber profile. Needing a few weeks to get re-acclimated to the bigs; we’ve seen everything that Tatis has to offer over the last couple of months. That should continue in Wednesday’s inter-league matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Tatis Jr’s ceiling towers above the rest. He’s posted an OPS above .930 in June and July, thanks in part to his cumulative .583 slugging percentage over that stretch. Somehow his slugging percentage remains below expected, suggesting there’s more room for growth from the two-time Silver Slugger. That’s also reflected in the bigger picture, as he remains below his career benchmarks in slugging percentage and OPS.
Additionally, Tatis Jr’s PlateIQ profile stacks up nicely compared to Jose Berrios’ pitching style. Berrios relies on his sinker/slurve combination, and Tatis Jr. can send those pitches into orbit. The shortstop-turned-outfielder has a .226 ISO off sinkers and a .638 expected slugging percentage off breaking pitches. Berrios turns to those two pitches more frequently than any other, offering them up 58.8% of the time, per PlateIQ:
Seven of Tatis’ last 18 hits have gone for extra bases, and Berrios doesn’t have the repertoire to contain him. We’re betting Tatis Jr. continues his torrid pace and lives up to his lofty projections in this one.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($8,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Rodon signed a lucrative six-year deal with the New York Yankees this past offseason. However, a left forearm strain followed by a back injury delayed his season debut. The southpaw took to the mound for his first start just before the All-Star break and is scheduled to make just his third start of the season. Data on Rodon is scant, but there are a few reasons to believe he exceeds the implied value of his modest salary against the Los Angeles Angels.
Although he gave up more runs across a shorter outing, Rodon improved his fantasy value in his most recent start. The two-time All-Star struck out six across 5.0 innings, allowing four hits and two walks for 21.0 fantasy points. As usual, Rodon has used his changeup sparingly, but batters have yet to make contact on it. Additionally, his slider remains his filthiest offering, inducing a 45.8% whiff rate, with Rodon turning to it as his preferred put-away pitch.
We can’t say that Shohei Ohtani struggles against lefties, but his metrics show a notable decline. Moreover, his worst metrics come against breaking pitches, playing in Rodon’s favor. We’re betting the freshly-minted Yankees pitcher continues his upward trend, reaching his fantasy ceiling versus the Halos.
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Hitters
Joc Pederson ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Fantasy points are ripe for the picking for Joc Pederson. Production has been intermittent for the Giants outfielder out of the All-Star break, but he’s operating well below expected levels. Teeing off Ashcraft could be the crack that Pederson needs to bust out a potentially season-best performance.
You wouldn’t know it from his middle-of-the-road production, but Pederson remains a top analytics hitter. The left-handed batter ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average. His advantages don’t stop there, as Pederson also ranks among the top 14% of MLB hitters in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate.
Those metrics give Pederson an even more pronounced edge over Ashcraft. As noted, the Reds’ pitcher has been combustible this year, and Pederson should get in on the action. He rates as one of the best hitters available in our aggregate projections.
Ozzie Albies ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Runs were not in short supply in the series opener between the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks. These teams combined for 29 runs on Tuesday night, with the D-Backs escaping with a rarely-seen 16-13 victory. They might not duplicate those metrics again today, but that won’t stop Ozzie Albies from trying.
With everything the Braves have to offer, Albies has flown under the radar. The second baseman has a scorching 1.063 OPS this month, including four homers and seven extra-base hits. That’s translated to tangible results for the Braves, with Albies knocking in ten and coming around to score 12 more.
We’ll have to start calling Ryne Nelson the Thanksgiving Day Parade, the way he floats things down Broadway. Those aren’t mistakes you can make against the Braves, and Albies will make him pay. Don’t be surprised if he exceeds his already impressive ceiling projections.
