The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Brandon Walter ($4,000): Pitcher, Boston Red Sox
Pitchers have $4,000 DraftKings salaries for a reason. For Brandon Walter, that reason is a big one. He’s never started a Major League Baseball game. In his first big league season, Walter has tallied five appearances and 13.2 innings for the Red Sox. He has a 3.29 ERA with nine strikeouts in that span.
Walter does have starting pitcher experience in the past. He started 12 games in the minor leagues this season and 22 last year. Although he has a 6.08 ERA at Triple-A Worcester in 2023, Walter has shown better fantasy scoring potential with 65 strikeouts in 63.2 innings.
PlateIQ shows the matchup is great for Walter against Oakland today. The Athletics’ lineup has a total .291 wOBA, .132 ISO, and 0.75 home run projection.
Walter is a bit of a crapshoot (currently projected for around 37 pitches), but for the low price point, he is an interesting wild card in tournament lineups.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($2,000): Third Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds continue to showcase their young prospects this season, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand the latest to make his major league debut for the club on Monday.
A former fourth-round pick of the Twins, Encarnacion-Strand was traded to the Reds last August and made his way to Triple-A for the start of 2023. He batted .331/.405/.637 with 20 home runs and 62 RBI in just 67 games for Louisville Bats before starting his first major league game.
Still looking for his first big-league hit after an 0-2 debut, Encarnacion-Strand showed incredible production in the minors and has the potential to blow his minimum DraftKings salary out of the water against Anthony Desclafani and the Giants. Desclafani is 4-8 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 starts this season.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
An interesting proposition today, Hunter Brown has the highest ceiling on the slate in the most dangerous ballpark for pitchers.
On the season, Brown is 4-4 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 17 starts for the Astros. Those numbers may not scream ceiling potential, but his high 28.1 K% adds fantasy upside. Brown induces a 54.3% ground ball rate which should help him keep the ball within the confines of Coors Field.
The last two starts have not been promising for Brown, with a 10.29 ERA and 18 hits allowed in seven total innings. That said, he has shown ceiling potential on the season with three 30-point DraftKings performances. For his relatively low salary, Brown could be a surprise bargain pitching option in Colorado.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
What a season so far for the Braves superstar. Ronald Acuna Jr. is lighting up the stat books in all aspects at the plate and has been the most productive player in fantasy baseball lineups.
In 2023, Acuna Jr. is batting .333/.414/.593 with 23 home runs, 58 RBI, and a league-leading 43 stolen bases. He has an incredible .657 xSLG and 55.1 hard hit %.
His biggest improvement from 2022, however, has been his eyes in the batter’s box. Acuna Jr. has lowered his strikeout rate from 23.6% last season to a minuscule 11.6% this year. He will use that new plate discipline against the Diamondbacks’ Zach Davies today with a 1-5 record and 6.37 ERA.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Jordan Montgomery ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Jordan Montgomery has pitched much better this season than his 6-7 record indicates. In 18 starts, Montgomery has a respectable 3.23 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
After a rough month of May, Montgomery has settled down this summer with a 1.71 ERA in five June starts and an 0.82 ERA in his first two July outings. The 30-year-old lefty is not a strikeout machine. He has topped seven strikeouts just one time this season but still exceeds his projected point total over 70% of his starts.
The Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Give Montgomery a shot against a Miami lineup that lacks explosiveness with a .137 team ISO.
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Hitters
Gunnar Henderson ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
It may be a little odd for baseball purists to see the Los Angeles Dodgers playing in Baltimore, but this young Orioles hitter is still poised for a strong performance.
In his second big league season, Gunnar Henderson is gaining confidence as the season goes along. His June (.320/.354/.640) and July (.369/.350/.500) batting numbers are much stronger than his .246/.341/.466 overall marks for 2023.
In his last 10 games, Henderson has a +2.87 Plus/Minus with three home runs and 10 RBI in that span. He showed an incredible ceiling potential with 42 DraftKings points against the Yankees on July 6.
Henderson has a solid matchup today against Michael Grove of the Dodgers. Grove is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA in eight starts this season.
Ozzie Albies ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Fantasy owners will be licking their lips to get Braves into their lineup today as Atlanta has the highest implied run total on the slate against Diamondbacks’ starter Davies.
After Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies is the second Braves hitter in the projections today. Albies is batting .266/.322/.516 on the year with 22 home runs, 66 RBI, and seven stolen bags.
In his last four games, Albies has three 20+ DraftKings performances. He posted three multi-hit and multi-RBI games in that stretch against the White Sox. The Atlanta lineup provides lots of fantasy scoring potential, and Albies is a great play again today.
