The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Triston Casas ($2,500): First Baseman, Boston Red Sox
Casas has a 94% Bargain Rating on Monday night as the Red Sox roll into Oakland to take on the Athletics and Paul Blackburn. Casas has come out of the All-Star break crushing the ball and has homered in all three games since the break. The 23-year-old rookie struggled early in the season but has come around lately and established himself as the 1B of the future in Boston.
While his .233 average on the season isn’t that impressive, he has been much better in his past 20 games. He has hit safely in five straight contests and gone 22-for-70 (.314) over his past 20 games with six doubles, five home runs, and a .411 wOBA.
You can see how productive Casas and the Red Sox have been against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days using our PlateIQ tool:
Casas has hit 11 of his 12 homers this season against right-handed pitchers, and five have come in the past month. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in six straight games and is a great way to save salary and still get good power upside in a favorable matchup against the Athletics.
Henry Davis ($2,600): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Casas and Davis have been among my favorite bargain picks over the past month, and both remain very affordable despite good production. Davis climbed quickly to the majors after the Pirates took him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he’s proving that he’s ready to produce.
He’s picked up two hits in each of his three games coming out of the All-Star break, going 6-for-11 with a double, a home run, a stolen base, and an average of 15.3 DKFP per game. He has hit .280 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a .346 wOBA since being called up and has a strong 44.4% hard-hit rate, which has climbed to 54.3% in July.
Davis and the Pirates host the Guardians on Monday night and will take on Xzavion Curry in what is expected to be a bullpen day. Davis brings a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and should provide cheap outfield production. In what should be a favorable matchup, the Pirates can also be a sneaky bargain stack with speedy Liover Peguero ($2,000) poised to make his MLB debut at the minimum salary. Ji-Man Choi ($2,400) and Jared Triolo ($2,300) have also been productive at their low salaries.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Gilbert has the highest ceiling projection of the 20 starting pitchers on Monday night’s slate using THE BAT X projections, despite being only the third-most expensive option on each site. Gilbert is the only pitcher on the slate that matches five Pro Trends on FanDuel and the only pitcher that matches four Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Part of Gilbert’s good projections is due to his favorable matchup against the Twins, who have the lowest Implied Run Total on the board. Minnesota also has the highest K% of any team in the MLB, so Gilbert should be able to pick up plenty of punchouts. He has the second-highest strikeout prediction on this slate, trailing only Logan Webb, who comes with more risk since he’s pitching at Great American Ballpark against the revamped Reds.
Gilbert has been consistent this season, going 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 3.47 FIP. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts, including tough road matchups against the Astros and Orioles. In those five outings, he has averaged 21.9 DraftKings points and 36.8 FanDuel points.
In his two career starts against the Twins, Gilbert has allowed just one run in 11 innings while picking up 13 strikeouts. He’ll hope to continue that mastery and help the M’s move back above .500 with a win on Monday.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Ohtani has continued to produce at a ridiculous pace at the plate, even though a blister has slowed him down as a pitcher. He blasted a pair of home runs this past weekend and is up to 34 long balls on the season, four more than any other batter in the majors.
Ten of those home runs have come in his 18 most recent contests. During that span, he’s gone 24-for-71 (.338) with three triples and an eye-popping .507 wOBA to average 14.0 DraftKings points and 18.5 FanDuel points per game. Ohtani has 19 home runs since June 6 and is on the best power binge of his career.
According to THE BAT X projections, he has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on the slate. Even though he’s expensive on DraftKings, he has a positive Projected Plus/Minus since he’s expected to deliver such good production. On FanDuel, Ohtani is also an outstanding value, given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
He and the Angels should be in a good spot as they host Luis Severino ($6,900) and the Yankees. Severino has been battered for 11 homers in nine starts and has posted a 7.38 ERA and 6.38 FIP. While everyone has feasted against Severino, lefties have especially hit him hard, posting a .413 wOBA. Severino has also been especially hittable on the road, where he has a 9.27 ERA and 6.69 FIP, allowing six homers in just 22.1 innings.
Ohtani will look to continue Severino’s struggles and his positive power trends in a smash spot Monday.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
MacKenzie Gore ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) at Chicago Cubs
In the blended projections, Gore stands out as a good option as he takes the mound at Wrigley Field. He has the third-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. Gore also has a 76% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s just the eighth-most expensive starter.
Gore should be very well-rested since he has only pitched four innings all month. He was knocked around in Philadelphia on July 1, but his last start on July 6 was abbreviated through no fault of his own. A rain delay forced him to leave after just 1.1 innings, even though he had allowed just one hit with one strikeout.
Before those two starts, Gore had allowed three runs or fewer in five of his previous six starts, posting a 3.89 ERA and 3.95 FIP. He had 41 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings over that stretch and averaged 18.0 DraftKings points and 32.7 FanDuel points per game. He didn’t get great run support in those outings, which is why he’s only 4-7 on the year, but he has been pitching well enough to be worth a look against the Cubs, who rely on lefties for much of their power production.
Gore also grades well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
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Hitters
Kerry Carpenter ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) at Kansas City Royals
The Tigers have one of the best matchups this Monday since they’ll be facing Jordan Lyles in the first game of their series against the Royals. Lyles has gone 1-11 in his first 17 starts with a 6.42 ERA and 5.51 FIP. He has surrendered 20 homers in his 17 starts. Twelve of those homers have come off the bat of left-handed hitters, who have a .361 wOBA against him.
Carpenter is one of the Tigers’ best power bats and has hit .274 with 11 homers and a .365 wOBA in his 50 games this season. Since returning from his shoulder injury 30 games ago, Carpenter has been even more locked in with a .316 batting average, seven homers, and a .400 wOBA.
In the first series coming out of the break, Carpenter hammered three home runs in three games in Seattle, averaging 18 DraftKings points and 24.2 FanDuel points per game.
He ranks in the top 10 of projected Plus/Minus among outfielders on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Using the 50/50 projections, Witt has the highest ceiling projection of all shortstops on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only the ever-versatile Mookie Betts. Witt is not nearly the most expensive shortstop on either site but provides excellent upside due to his combination of power and speed.
Over his past 13 games, Witt produced 13 DraftKings points and 16.8 FanDuel points per game by going 19-for-51 (.373) with four doubles, two triples, four home runs, four stolen bases, and a .470 wOBA. He hit safely in 12 of those 13 games and came out of the break playing well during a three-game series vs. the Rays.
He and the Royals will take on Matt Manning, who has struggled most of the season aside from his no-hitter in his most recent start.
Witt offers a high ceiling for a player under $5K on DraftKings and under $3.5K on FanDuel.
