The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Kirilloff ($2,400): First Baseman, Minnesota Twins
The Twins represent three of the top four players in projected ownership in THE BAT X projections. One of those three is first baseman Alex Kirilloff who is projected to bat fourth in the Twins’ lineup. At only $2,400 on DraftKings, Kirilloff doesn’t need to do much to return value. He has the most Pro Trends in the lineup with five and has a 94% Bargain Rating tonight.
Kirilloff is much more comfortable against right-handed pitching than left as he has a .442 slugging percentage compared to just .206 against southpaws. The Athletics will start right-hander Paul Blackburn, who is allowing a 4.87 ERA and has a 1.54 WHIP. He struggles with left-handed batters, and behind him is the worst bullpen in the league that is allowing a 5.75 ERA this season.
Kirilloff may not have major upside with his lack of power, but he is cheap enough as a lineup filler at his salary.
Eugenio Suarez ($2,700): Third Baseman, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners ended their last nine games before the All-Star Break 7-2 to sneak just over the .500 mark on the season. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez in their last series, had a game with two home runs and a double showing his upside. Hopefully, his bat stayed hot through the All-Star Break, as Suarez is only $2,700 on DraftKings with a 94% Bargain Rating.
Suarez has recorded a double-digit barrel percentage in each of his last five seasons, averaging 13.8% over that time. This year, Suarez has a career-high 46.6% hard-hit rate, and that number rises significantly against left-handed pitching, which he will face today with the Tigers starting southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. Despite Rodriguez having the best year of his career, he is coming off of his worst start allowing five earned runs and two home runs to the Athletics. Suarez is a great value play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Even though Luis Castillo is $2,000 cheaper than Shohei Ohtani on DraftKings, he has the highest projected ceiling and Plus/Minus among pitchers on this 14-game slate. In his first full season with the Mariners, Castillo has a career-best 2.85 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. His 26.7% strikeout rate this year is another reason why he is the most popular pitcher on the slate.
Castillo will get the luxury of pitching at home against the Tigers, who are one of the worst offenses in the league. They are implied for only three runs tonight as they have scored the third-fewest runs while also ranking inside the top 10 in strikeout rate. Castillo has proven to have massive upside against lower-scoring teams this season and tonight should be no different.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
It is rare to find a batter with this big of a gap in ceiling projections as Ronald Acuna Jr. has on tonight’s slate. The 25-year-old phenom already has a career-high 41 stolen bases to go along with 21 home runs and a .231 ISO. His strikeout rate has been cut in half from last year down to 12%, and his .331 batting average is second in the league. Acuna Jr’s dual-threat ability makes him the best fantasy hitter to target. His last 30-day numbers against right-handed pitching are great (via PlateIQ).
Matchups rarely matter for a player of Acuna Jr’s caliber, but the White Sox will start right-hander Michael Kopech who is making his first start since coming off the 15-day injured list. Through 16 starts this season, Kopech has a 3-7 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Coming in around 15% ownership on both sites, Acuna Jr. is the pay-up batter to target tonight.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) at Kansas City Royals
Tyler Glasnow didn’t get his 2023 campaign started until late May but has been incredible over his last three starts. During that time, he has allowed five earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched while accumulating 31 strikeouts. Glasnow is averaging 26.2 DraftKings points per game in those three starts despite only throwing over 90 pitches once. He has a slate-high 8.18 projected strikeouts against the Royals, who rank fourth in strikeout rate at 24.7%. A fantastic matchup for a lights-out starter.
Glasnow and the Rays are a -290 road favorite as they look to build on their American League leading 58 wins. The Royals are implied for only 3.4 runs as they are fighting with the Athletics for the worst record in the league. They are second-to-last in runs scored and won’t pose much of a threat to Glasnow. His five-figure salary is a little high but is deserving for this spot.
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Hitters
Anthony Volpe ($4,000 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The Yankees are in the best spot on the slate being the road team playing at Coors Field. They are implied for a slate-high 6.6 runs, as several of their batters look great in our projections. However, no one looks as good as shortstop Anthony Volpe who has the highest rating in both our in-house and THE BAT X projections. Volpe comes at a discount on both sites.
Volpe will also get the platoon advantage as the Rockies will start left-hander Austin Gomber who has been awful pitching at Coors Field this year. Gomber’s ERA skyrockets to 7.84 while allowing a .590 slugging percentage and a 46.6% hard-hit rate. Volpe’s rookie season has had its fair share of ups and downs, but this is a great spot batting leadoff for the Yankees.
Julio Rodriguez ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
After coming up just short in the Home Run Derby, Julio Rodriguez paired with Eugenio Suarez is one of the best combos this slate has to offer. Rodriguez will also get the platoon advantage against Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, but his numbers stay around the same regardless of pitcher handedness. He still looks fantastic on both sites as an upside batter.
Rodriguez currently ranks fifth in projected ownership for batters as the Mariners have an 83 Team Value Rating tonight. He has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last nine games without hitting a home run, which is impressive. His stolen base numbers are rising to where he is becoming a mini-Ronald Acuna Jr. There are times after a Home Run Derby when batters find their power again. Maybe that’ll be the case for Rodriguez, and we’ll see him add to his home run totals.
