The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Matt Beaty ($2,000): First Base/Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals batters aren’t usually at the front of the pack when it comes to fantasy value, but Wednesday’s projections highlight an exception to that rule. Matt Beaty is coming off a two-hit performance against the Boston Red Sox and should duplicate that effort in tonight’s penultimate inter-divisional battle.
The Royals first baseman/outfielder has been moderately productive since re-joining the club at the start of August. Over that stretch, Beaty has four hits and two doubles across 16 at-bats. Further, he’s got one RBI and two runs scored, stabilizing the bottom of the order. The left-handed batting Beaty has an even more pronounced advantage against righty Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has given up 15 homers this year, 11 of which have come against lefties.
At $2,000, Beaty is a true bargain on the main slate. He should take advantage of hitting off Pivetta in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, exceeding the implied value of his salary.
Abraham Almonte ($2,000): Outfielder, New York Mets
We’re targeting another low-end salary with plus potential with our next Bargain Rating pick. Abraham Almonte was re-called by the New York Mets, getting his first MLB action of the season in Tuesday’s loss to the Chicago Cubs. Although he went hitless in his return, we like the veteran slugger’s chances of delivering versus Kyle Hendricks.
Almonte has excelled in the Mets minor league system this season. Across three leagues, the journeyman was slugging .548 with an impressive .377 on-base percentage. Moreover, he had an incredible home run rate, swatting dingers on nearly 10% of his at-bats. His plate approach hasn’t always translated in the bigs, but circumstances favor the switch-hitter in this one.
Almonte’s best splits come against right-handers. More specifically, righty starters. Throughout his career, Almonte has a .725 OPS against right-handed starters, including a .404 slugging percentage. The Mets outfielder leads our Points/Salary aggregate projections and is poised for a break-out effort against the Cubbies.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($11,300 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Los Angeles Angels pumped the breaks on a seven-game losing skid, knocking off the San Francisco Giants last night. Shohei Ohtani gives them their best chance of making it two in a row as he goes for his third straight win from the bump.
The presumptive MVP has been exceptional on the mound of late. Ohtani has not allowed a run over his past 13.0 innings, allowing just four hits and four walks across that sample. Additionally, his fantasy-boosting strikeout metrics are working just fine, with Ohtani punching out 28 over his last 24.1 innings pitched.
Ohtani should have no problems navigating the Giants’ lackluster order with his six-pitch repertoire. San Fran has compiled the eighth-worst OPS and third-most strikeouts this season. Somehow, they’ve looked even worse more recently, putting together a .579 OPS this week with 56 Ks in six games.
Ohtani’s metrics put him among the MLB’s best pitchers, but his strikeout analytics is where he separates himself from the pack. The righty ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout percentage, thanks in part to his elite whiff rate and six-pitch mix. We’re betting he lands among the top-performing pitchers again en route to his tenth win of the season.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Not surprisingly, Ronald Acuna Jr. leads our aggregate median and ceiling projections again on Wednesday night. The Atlanta Braves slugger is well on his way to the first MVP award of his career and should live up to those expectations against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Analytically, there’s nobody better than Acuna Jr. The hard-hitting outfielder ranks in the 100th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and expected batting average, falling marginally below that standard in hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage, dropping to the 99th rung.
Predictably, those metrics lend themselves to substantive run production. Acuna Jr. scored his 100th run of the season in last night’s win, adding 68 RBI and 53 stolen bases on the year.
There’s something in the air to start the month, as Acuna Jr. has elevated his play since August 1. Over that stretch, he’s compiled a 1.301 OPS, with five of his 12 hits going for extra bases. Further, he’s got four multi-hit outings across those seven games, driving in seven and scoring seven more.
As noted, Acuna Jr’s PlateIQ profile validates his projections, installing him as the best hitter in the Braves lineup. There’s nothing the Pirates can do to slow him down as Acuna Jr. continues to prove that he’s the best player in the NL.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
Father time may be catching up with Yu Darvish. The five-time All-Star has fallen off his usual pace, posting below-average stats and deteriorating metrics. Still, the analytics support that Darvish is better than his record implies, and he has a chance to show it Wednesday night against the Seattle Mariners.
Darvish is barely over .500, going 9-8 on the campaign with a 4.41 ERA; however, that’s well above his expected value of 3.68. Additionally, Darvish has turned a corner over his past few starts, dropping his ERA in two straight and allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his previous five starts. Across that sample, the Japanese National has a 2.47 ERA with 32 Ks over 29.1 innings pitched.
The Mariners are one of the most free-swinging teams in the bigs. So far this season, Seattle has compiled the second-most strikeouts, 54 of which have come over their last five games. That plays into Darvish’s hands as he continues his hot streak and reaches his fantasy ceiling at T-Mobile Park.
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Hitters
Rafael Devers ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
It may only be August 9, but the Boston Red Sox are fighting for their playoff lives. The Red Sox have fallen to last in the AL East, 12 games back of the division lead and 5.0 behind the final wild card berth. If Boston hopes to make a run at the postseason, Rafael Devers will need to live up to his fantasy potential.
That’s not to say that Devers hasn’t been delivering. The Red Sox third baseman is up to his usual antics in Beantown. Devers leads the team in OPS, home runs, RBI, and extra-base hits while ranking second in runs scored. He’s flashed that top-end potential lately, recording four hits over his past four outings, totaling two doubles, one long fly ball, with three runs batted in.
Of course, Devers’ success is validated by solid underlying metrics. The Red Sox’s unofficial team leader sits in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, rising to the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage. The left-handed batting Devers has yet another implied advantage against righty Jordan Lyles, making him one of the best options available on tonight’s docket.
Masataka Yoshida ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
We’re going with a cheeky little stack to conclude our picks, rostering Masataka Yoshida next to Devers for maximum value. Although Yoshida’s profile isn’t as robust as Devers’, the lefty batter thrives versus conventional arms and should bounce back after yesterday’s hitless outing.
A hitless effort has done little-to-nothing to knock Yoshida off his current pace. The Red Sox rookie has hits in all but one of his last seven games. Across that modest sample, Yoshida has totaled eight hits, three doubles, two runs, and two RBI. But the best has yet to come, as the left-handed batting outfielder should tee off Lyles tonight.
Yoshida’s got above-average splits versus righties. This season, the 30-year-old has a .487 slugging percentage, with 31 of his 40 extra-base hits coming against right-handers. Those strengths will be amplified in tonight’s pitching matchup. Lyles rates as one of the worst pitchers in the majors, sitting in the 21st percentile in expected ERA and eighth percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Fenway Park is an unforgiving venue, and Yoshida will roll out the unwelcome mat in this one.
