The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jake Bauers ($2,600): First Baseman/Outfielder, New York Yankees
Bauers is one of five players on Monday’s eight-game main slate on DraftKings that has a 97% Bargain Rating. Of the group, he has the highest ceiling projection and is the only option that brings eligibility at multiple positions.
He’s projected to lead off for the Yankees as they open their series in Chicago against Dylan Cease and the White Sox. Bauers led off in three of the Yankees’ four games against the Astros over the weekend and went 4-for-16 (.250) with two home runs, two walks, and an average of 10.5 DraftKings points per game.
Against right-handed pitchers, Bauers has hit .239 on the season with all 11 of his home runs and a .358 wOBA. Despite the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, he has actually been better on the road this year. Bauers makes a good bargain play at either 1B or in the OF as long as he stays in a prime run production spot by hitting at the top of the order in front of the Yankees’ big bats.
Robbie Grossman ($2,600): Outfielder, Texas Rangers
The Rangers are in a great matchup on Monday night as they open their series against the Athletics by facing Ken Waldichuk. The Athletics’ lefty has posted a 6.52 ERA, 5.64 FIP, and 1.74 WHIP in 25 games this season while surrendering 16 home runs. The Rangers have been the highest-scoring offense in the Major Leagues this season, so it makes sense to get some exposure to the Texas lineup on Monday night.
Grossman is an affordable way to do that with his 91% Bargain Rating. He is projected to hit seventh and should be a mainstay as the team’s DH with Josh Jung (thumb) sidelined and Ezequiel Duran expected to move to 3B.
The 33-year-old journeyman has put together a solid season during his first year with the Rangers. He has a .222 batting average and eight home runs, but most of his good numbers have come against lefties. He has a .284 batting average, three homers, and a .356 wOBA in that split this season.
If you’re looking for a cheap outfield play with upside, Grossman is an excellent way to get a piece of the Rangers’ production while saving plenty of salary.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Strider’s ceiling is one of the highest of any starting pitcher in baseball due to his impressive strikeout tally. He leads the Major Leagues with a 14.44 K/9 rate and has racked up 208 strikeouts in 132 innings over his 22 starts. In those starts, he has averaged 25.6 DraftKings points and 42.2 FanDuel points per outing and has established himself as the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young.
He has been exceptionally sharp over his past eight starts after hitting a rough patch in June. In six of those eight outings, he has produced at least 27.9 DraftKings points and at least 47 FanDuel points. He’s gone 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA, 2.27 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP while racking up at least nine strikeouts in each outing.
He should be able to keep rolling as he faces the Pirates on Monday. Pittsburgh has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the majors over the past 30 days and hit just .217 as a team. The Pirates also have a 26.6% strikeout rate in the last 30 days, the sixth-highest in the Majors.
Strider has the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slate, and no pitcher matches more Pro Trends. He also has the highest K Prediction by over one full strikeout, which is a significant margin.
He is expensive, especially on DraftKings, but Strider has consistently delivered exceptional performances. If the weather doesn’t get in his way, he should be in a smash spot against the Pirates on Monday night.
Strider also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Acuña continues to post impressive numbers in multiple categories and has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Acuña leads the Majors with 53 stolen bases and has also smashed 25 home runs. As a result, he has produced a gaudy 12.96 DraftKings points and 16.78 FanDuel points per game. As ridiculous as those numbers are over a 109-game span, he has been playing even better recently. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 14.25 DraftKings points and 18.35 FanDuel points per game, with four homers and 12 stolen bases across 20 contests.
He collected multiple hits in his past four games, including a home run and two stolen bases, and he gets a good matchup against Osvaldo Bido and the Pirates on Monday night.
Since he can produce in multiple categories, he has a higher floor with a sky-high ceiling. The only thing that could be questionable for Acuña on Monday is the weather, but if the rain holds off, he’ll again be a great centerpiece to consider for your lineup.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Dane Dunning ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
Dunning was extremely sharp in his last start, and now he gets a great matchup to build on that success as he faces the Athletics.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, using the aggregate projections.
Last Wednesday, Dunning was dominant in 7 2/3 innings against Chicago. He picked up a season-high 11 strikeouts on his way to 38.9 DraftKings points and 63 FanDuel points. It was a great showing from the 28-year-old righty, who has had some great starts and some awful starts since joining the rotation.
Unsurprisingly, his best starts tend to come against inferior lineups like the White Sox and Tigers, who he looked great against in a late-June start.
Since the A’s lineup is extremely thin, Dunning should be able to continue his success from his last start and has a good shot at a win as a -240 favorite.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
Sign Up, Get $200 Deposit Bonus
Hitters
Adolis Garcia ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
Let’s go back to the Rangers one more time. Garcia should be a good play since he has been crushing lefties all season. You can see using our PlateIQ tool how good the Rangers have been against lefties, including Garcia and Grossman:
Garcia has been especially productive over his past 11 games with a .325 (13-for-40) batting average with five homers, 10 RBI, and a .471 wOBA. In those games, he has averaged 11.9 DraftKings points and 15.9 FanDuel points.
He should be set up to stay hot against Waldichuk, so consider adding him to your outfield mix.
Luis Rengifo ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Shortly after the All-Star break, Rengifo stepped in as the Angels’ primary leadoff hitter, and he brings good value in that role along with good positional versatility to help him fit in multiple builds. He’s eligible at second base and shortstop on DraftKings and adds outfield eligibility to those two spots on FanDuel.
In 15 games since moving to the top of the order, he’s gone 19-for-61 (.311) with three doubles, two triples, and four home runs for a .421 wOBA and an average of 9.9 DraftKings points and 12.8 FanDuel points per contest.
He has been consistent enough to bring a solid floor and a reasonable ceiling as long as he keeps hitting leadoff in front of the Angels’ big bats, including in this matchup with Giants starter Logan Webb.
