The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Merrill Kelly ($9,100): Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly faces a difficult Dodgers lineup today in Los Angeles, but the model targets him as a high-bargain option on the slate.
On the season, Kelly is 10-5 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 12 in his last outing in seven scoreless innings against the Reds.
PlateIQ indicates the Dodgers will be a tough task for Kelly with five High ISO and six High wOBA hitters. Kelly allows a relatively high 46.6 hard hit %. Expect lower ownership than usual, making Kelly an interesting value option.
Michael A. Taylor ($2,500): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Michael A. Taylor has been cooking at the plate in August, with seven of his 19 home runs coming this month. The veteran outfielder’s season-long batting totals are .225/.278/.444.
Taylor has a +6.16 positive Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has eight double-digit DraftKings performances since August 1 with a .246/.316/.551 hitting line.
The Twins take on right-hander Gavin Williams with his 1-5 record. His 3.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are more promising for Williams, but Taylor is still in a good spot for fantasy production today.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
George Kirby ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
With a $1,000 salary increase from his last start, George Kirby gets the Athletics opponent boost today in Seattle. The Athletics projected lineup has a low .143 ISO and .296 wOBA.
Kirby is 10-8 on the season with a 3.28 ERA. He has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors and notched nine strikeouts in his last start. He has a 2.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP so far in August.
The Athletics have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate today. They continue to occupy the basement in team batting average on the year, among a number of other offensive categories.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($7,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The best hitter in baseball this season had his best fantasy performance last night in Colorado. Ronald Acuna Jr. scored 51 DraftKings points with one home run, four hits, five RBI, and two stolen bases.
Acuna Jr. extended his league-leading totals in runs scored and stolen bases last night while improving on his eye-popping .335/.418/.572 hitting totals.
The Braves stay in Colorado today to face righty Peter Lambert. He has a 3-4 record with a 4.92 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. At home, he has an elevated 6.61 ERA in three starts.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Despite a rough last outing, Pablo Lopez is near the top of the model ratings on today’s slate. He allowed five earned runs and three homers in five innings of work against the Rangers on August 24.
The Twins right-hander is 9-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has a strong 29.3 K% and allows a .276 xwOBA.
Lopez has been more successful after the All-Star break with a 4-1 record and 3.21 ERA. He has a +0.85 Plus/Minus over the last month.
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Hitters
Charlie Blackmon ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Atlanta Braves
While the Braves’ potent offense enjoys the thin Colorado air, the home team also boasts some run-scoring potential.
Veteran Charlie Blackmon is batting .312/.393/.532 at home this season with a .925 OPS. In part-time action, he has been excellent in August with 19 hits in 47 at-bats for a .404/.500/.628 hitting line.
Charlie Morton gets the nod for the Braves on the road. He has a 13-10 record on the back of a 3.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Expect a lot of offense in Denver tonight.
George Springer ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
In his third season with the Blue Jays, George Springer is having another solid season at the plate. He is batting .258/.327/.407 with 17 home runs and 54 RBI.
Springer has two home runs in his last four games to go with three double-digit DraftKings performances. He tallied three stolen bases in that span for additional fantasy production.
The Blue Jays take on MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals today. Gore is 6-10 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.37 ERA in 25 starts this season.
