The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tim Anderson ($3,100): Shortstop, Chicago White Sox
Anderson has had a disappointing season. He’s posted a 58 wRC+ after recording a mark of at least 110 in the previous four seasons, and he recently missed time with a suspension. After a week off, Anderson returned with a two-hit effort last night and is poised for another strong showing Thursday against the Oakland Athletics.
His recent performance is a good indicator, but a few other factors are working in Anderson’s favor. First, Anderson gets to tee off lefty Ken Waldichuk. The 30-year-old has inspired splits versus southpaws, with his OPS climbing to .778 against lefties, compared to .505 off righties. Secondly, Anderson is a natural progression candidate, as his slugging percentage is 60 points below expected.
Circumstances favor Anderson, and he’s got a palatable $3,100 salary in this one. That makes him one of the best values, as he leads our Projected Plus/Minus and ranks second in Points/Salary.
Jordan Luplow ($2,600): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
It’s been an eventful few weeks for Luplow. The now Minnesota Twins outfielder spent most of the campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays Triple-A affiliate, earning a call-up at the end of July. The Jays put him on waivers to facilitate a move down to Buffalo, but Luplow was picked up by the Twinkies. Since then, he’s been raking, earning another promotion up the lineup.
Since joining the Twins, Luplow has an above-average .799 OPS. Both components of that rating are climbing, as his on-base percentage has jumped to .355, and his slugging percentage is up to .444. Consequently, the Twins moved Luplow into the heart of their order, showcasing Luplow’s fantasy value,
Although his run production has been limited, Luplow is expected to perform well against Andrew Heaney. Luplow has a natural advantage against the southpaw as a right-handed batter, and all three of his extra-base hits have come off lefties. He’s historically been an elite hitter vs. left-handers, so don’t overlook this value pick on tonight’s slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Luplow isn’t the only Twins player worth rostering tonight, though. Minnesota will send their ace to the bump for tonight’s crucial showdown with the Texas Rangers. Based on our aggregate projections, we anticipate another elite effort from Lopez.
Lopez’s analytics profile puts him among the top pitchers in the bigs. The hard-throwing righty ranks in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate, 90th percentile in expected ERA, and 94th percentile in chase rate. More importantly, those metrics have been on full display over his recent sample.
So far this month, Lopez is a cool 4-0 with a sparkling 0.36 ERA while allowing a minuscule 0.88 walks + hits per inning pitched. Those Cy Young-worthy stats come with more robust strikeout metrics, as Lopez has a healthy 10.4 K/9 rate over his last three outings.
Lopez gets a struggling Rangers squad amid a downturn in their metrics. Texas has lost six in a row, with a laughable .619 OPS over the last seven days. The Twins can add to those woes, and Lopez will lead the charge.
Hitter
Luis Robert Jr. ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
We’re hopping back on the White Sox train with our ceiling pick, highlighting Robert as the best available hitter. The outfielder has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season. We get everything he has to offer against Waldichuk.
Robert leads the White Sox in virtually every offensive category. His 63 RBI, 78 runs scored, 33 homers, 64 extra-base hits, and .872 OPS are all team bests. Further, six of his last 12 hits have gone for a double or better, including four long fly balls.
Like Anderson, Robert’s prowess is amplified against lefties. His OBP and slugging percentage both increase versus southpaws, inflating his OPS to .954. Those advantages are also reflected in Robert’s PlateIQ profile, as he has a team-leading .269 ISO and .412 wOBA:
Robert is among the best players on tonight’s slate, ranking in the top three in median and ceiling projections. Waldichuk and his 5.91 ERA and .428 expected slugging percentage have nowhere to hide.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Merrill Kelly ($9,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly is having a banner year. The five-year veteran is on pace for several noteworthy accomplishments, potentially setting career-best marks in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Kelly can further his cause with another strong outing against the Reds, simultaneously boosting the D-Backs in the NL playoff race.
Kelly arguably enters tonight’s crucial NL showdown in the best form of his career. The righty has dazzled of late, twirling a 2.88 ERA over his past six starts. We’ve also seen improved strikeout metrics from him over that stretch, with Kelly punching out 36 over his last 34.1 innings for a 9.5 K/9 rate.
Although he has fewer wins at home, Kelly has been a tough-luck loser on multiple occasions. Five of his previous six home starts have been of the quality variety, but Kelly only has two wins for his efforts. We suspect another elite performance is on the horizon, this time rewarded with a win.
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Hitters
Seth Brown ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Athletics can fight fire with fire, turning up the offensive fireworks in tonight’s contest versus the White Sox. Brown has been slumping lately, dropping his salary on both platforms. Still, he’s an ideal buy-low candidate with upside against Jesse Scholtens.
Hits tend to come in bunches for Brown. The A’s outfielder has five multi-hit outings this month, representing 11 of his 15 hits. Not surprisingly, that correlates with improved run production, as three of Brown’s four RBIs and both his runs scored have come in those games.
Scholtens is a contact pitcher, leaving most of his offerings in the zone. That plays into Brown’s strengths as he looks to live up to his fantasy ceiling. According to our projections, there’s a good chance Brown reaches that plateau, as he rates as one of the top median and ceiling options on the slate.
Bo Bichette ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Consistency has eluded the Blue Jays this season. However, Bichette has been an exception to that rule. Toronto has been surpassed in the Wild Card standings, now sitting outside the playoffs looking in. Bichette can bolster their postseason aspirations with a solid performance on Thursday night.
Bichette’s analytics are better than they’ve ever been. The Blue Jays infielder has a career-best .317 expected batting average and a 40.6% sweet spot rating.
More importantly, Bichette enters tonight’s AL East showdown on a ten-game hitting streak, albeit interrupted by a trip to the IL. Over that stretch, Bichette has totaled 19 hits, three doubles, a triple, and two homers while scoring six times and driving in seven. That’s just a taste of what to expect as he helps the Jays bounce back from last night’s shutout and rejuvenate their playoff hopes.
