The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Matt Wallner ($2,400): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Matt Wallner has the highest Bargain Rating on the slate at 99% with his $2,400 DraftKings salary. Wallner has hit a home run in two of his last four games, including six RBIs over that time. Through 39 games this season, the second-year pro has a .284 ISO and a 47.9% hard-hit rate. Wallner is also one of three hitters on this entire slate that has seven Pro Trends.
Wallner will get the platoon advantage against right-handed Pirates starter Andre Jackson. He has destroyed right-handed pitchers thus far with a .598 slugging percentage, including eight of his nine total home runs. Projected to bat sixth for the Twins, Wallner is a great salary saver and is only projected for around 5% ownership.
He is a fantastic low-owned bargain value.
Curtis Mead ($2,200): Third Baseman, Tampa Bay Rays
After missing all of May and most of June with an injury, Curtis Mead did well enough in Triple-A to get called up to the Rays earlier this month. He is coming off a three-hit performance in his last game and is projected to bat sixth for the Rays, who have a 4.8 run total. Mead has accumulated DraftKings points in four of his five starts, which makes him a value at $2,200.
Mead will get a matchup against the Angels left-handed starting pitcher Tyler Anderson. It has been a rough first year for Anderson on the Angels staff, as he has allowed a 5.28 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate. As most southpaw pitchers are, Anderson struggles with right-handed batters, which is another added bonus for Mead, who will get the platoon advantage.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,700 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Tied for the league lead in wins with 13, Spencer Strider is easily the best pitcher on tonight’s slate. Strider’s salary is steep, but he is projected for 8.49 strikeouts as he has averaged a 38.1% strikeout rate over the last two seasons. During the month of July, Strider averaged 10.6 strikeouts per game, so double digits are possible in this matchup against the Giants.
Strider and the Braves are a -225 favorite,s as the Giants have a 3.5 implied run total, the lowest on the slate. The Giants as a team rank fourth in the league in strikeout rate at 24.8%. They rank in the bottom 10 of home runs, runs scored, and wOBA. There is enough value to pay up for Strider, who has proven to be very consistent, averaging 24.4 DraftKings points per start.
Hitter
Luis Robert Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The second-most popular batter, according to THE BAT X projections, is White Sox star Luis Robert Jr. He leads the team in hits, home runs, RBI, and batting average and has recorded at least one hit in nine-straight games, including three home runs. Robert Jr.’s power will be on full display in Coors Field against the Rockies right-handed starting pitcher Peter Lambert.
The White Sox are implied for 6.1 runs, but make sure to monitor the weather as it looks like rain is in the forecast. If this game plays, Robert Jr. is in a fantastic spot against Lambert, who has yet to have a season with an above 20% strikeout rate. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers, Robert Jr. has an impressive .328 ISO and .404 wOBA (via PlateIQ):
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
When deciding to fade Spencer Strider, Twins starter Pablo Lopez is the next best option. His strikeout rate has risen to 30% this season and his ability to prevent runs has been Lopez’s best attribute as of late. Lopez has allowed one earned run in his last 19 innings pitched. Over that time, Lopez has 20 strikeouts and is averaging 28.1 DraftKings points per start.
Lopez is a -227 favorite at home against the Pirates, who have a 3.6 implied run total. The Pirates have been one of the worst scoring offenses in the league all season, making this an elite spot for Lopez to continue his earned run-less streak alive. When comparing the two tier-one pitchers, Lopez looks much better on DraftKings at a $2,100 discount to Strider.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to be a hitter worth targeting, as his ceiling consistently remains high regardless of his matchup. It may be difficult to pair Acuna Jr. with either of these top-tier pitchers due to his price tag, but he is still drawing around 15% ownership. The Braves are implied for 5.5 runs tonight as Acuna Jr. is in his normal leadoff spot where he can do everything.
The Giants will start veteran right-hander Alex Cobb who has seen his hard-hit rate climb in recent seasons. Cobb has allowed six home runs in his last three starts while only striking out 10 batters in 15.2 innings pitched. This is a horrible matchup for Cobb, who comes in struggling recently. Acuna Jr.’s salary remains high, but he is more than worth it in this spot.
