The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,800): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
With a win on Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox can earn a sweep of their cross-town rivals, the Chicago Cubs. Thankfully, they’ve got a few batters expected to deliver against Cubs’ probable starter, Javier Assad. Among those is Andrew Benintendi, who thrives against soft-throwing righties.
Not surprisingly, Benintendi’s best metrics come against the heater. His .396 expected slugging percentage isn’t spectacular, but it is greater than his actual rating of .346. Additionally, both of his homers and 13 of his 28 extra-base hits have come off the fastball, suggesting that Benintendi will be at his best on Wednesday. Assad has a six-pitch mix, but between his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker, half of his repertoire is fastball variations, which he throws a combined 78.1% of the time.
Wrigley Field is an unforgiving ballpark, and Assad has struggled at home. His walks and hits per inning pitched inflates to 1.44 at Wrigley, yielding a higher ERA. Assad may have lasted 7.0 innings in his last start, but Benintendi will ensure that is cut short tonight.
Dylan Moore ($2,500): Second Base/Shortstop, Seattle Mariners
Wins are the most important thing for the Seattle Mariners these days as they try to catch the teams ahead of them in the wild card race. That task becomes a little less daunting when you have a balanced lineup and guys like Dylan Moore doing some heavy lifting.
Moore is scorching this month. The Mariners’ middle-infielder has a robust .556 slugging percentage, with five of his seven hits going for extra bags in August. That’s a continuation of a recent upward trend in which Moore has compiled four home runs, five doubles, and a triple across his last 52 at-bats.
Those stats should climb even higher when the M’s are done with James MacArthur. The Kansas City Royals righty gives up a generous 53.8% hard-hit rate and 6.54 expected ERA. When Seattle is done with the opener, they get to tackle the rest of KC’s bullpen, ranking second-last in ERA (5.29) and WHIP (1.49). Moore should exceed the implied value of his modest salary tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Blake Snell ($10,100 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The NL Cy Young Award is one of the few awards without a top contender. Instead, there’s a bevy of pitchers vying for the title down the stretch run. Included in that group is Blake Snell, who has had a magnificent summer with the San Diego Padres. That stretch should continue in Wednesday’s inter-league showdown against the Baltimore Orioles.
Since the start of June, Snell is an impressive 8-2. Over that stretch, he’s compiled a jaw-dropping 13.4 K/9 rate while allowing five or fewer hits in all but one of his 13 starts. The southpaw has been even more immaculate of late, winning three consecutive decisions without allowing more than four hits in any of those four outings.
Predictably, Snell’s underlying metrics suggest that he’s not going to lose any ground in the Cy Young race. The former AL award winner ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate and 96th percentile in whiff rate, sitting in the 86th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected batting average.
The O’s have uninspired offensive metrics, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories. Sadly, they’ve fallen even further over their recent sample, putting together a drab .631 OPS over the past week with 52 Ks. Snell’s ascent continues with another solid outing at home.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
The Los Angeles Angels would be in a much worse spot without Shohei Ohtani. The presumptive MVP has made a big impact at the plate and on the mound, straddling a line that no other player in the bigs can. Again, he’s projected as a top performer on Wednesday’s slate, sitting near the top of our ceiling projections.
Ohtani’s analytics profile is asinine. He sits in the 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel rate, falling one percentile in hard-hit percentage. Those metrics illuminate an MVP standard that few players can duplicate.
Moreover, Ohtani has hits in 16 of his previous 19 contests, totaling 22 hits, four doubles, and five doubles. As expected, that has resulted in solid run production, with Ohtani delivering 14 runs scored and seven RBI across that sample.
There’s little Jon Gray can do to slow down Ohtani. As revealed by his PlateIQ profile, Ohtani has a .372 ISO and .460 WOBA versus righties. That’s translated to tangible results, with the left-handed batting Ohtani slugging .692 against conventional arms.
There’s no disputing Ohtani’s ceiling in this one.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
For the past year and a half, Luis Castillo has been a stabilizing force in the Mariners rotation. The hard-throwing righty has compiled a 3.15 ERA in 35 starts with the club. Still, we’d expect more wins than the 12 Castillo has accumulated, considering his strong underlying metrics.
Since joining the M’s, Castillo has improved his K/9 rate to a career-best 10.4. That’s come with fewer baserunners and an improved opponent’s batting average, as Castillo’s WHIP decreased from 1.20 with the Reds to 1.05 in Seattle. Likewise, his OBA has dipped to .205 since landing with the Mariners.
There’s been just one blip on Castillo’s radar lately. The 30-year-old has limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts, a stretch that includes five quality starts, three wins, and 49 strikeouts.
In reconciling his actual metrics with expected ones, Castillo should continue to deliver more of the same. That’s even more true against the basement-dwelling Royals, who remain one of the worst offensive teams in the majors.
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Hitters
Teoscar Hernandez ($3,600 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
We’re not done adding to our pseudo-Mariners stack yet. Teoscar Hernandez has been a catalyst in the heart of the M’s order and is expected to carry that momentum into tonight’s battle against the Royals.
The Mariners outfielder has been torching opponents since the calendar flipped to August. Hernandez has a top-tier .961 OPS over the past couple of weeks, resulting in a surge in run production. He’s accounted for nine runs across the modest 12-game sample, including three RBI in last night’s win over the Royals.
That trajectory is projected to continue tonight. Hernandez remains below his expected slugging percentage and outside of career norms, implying that he remains in a positive correction phase. For many of the same reasons as we expect Moore to thrive, Hernandez gets to look at batting practice quality pitches from Kansas City’s relievers. Don’t expect Hernandez to miss.
Ian Happ ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
We’re staying on theme with our final value pick, highlighting Ian Happ from the Cubs in tonight’s Chicago rivalry contest. Happ is a fixture in the three spot and has an ideal pitching matchup against Mike Clevinger.
Happ has been one of the most consistent performers for the Cubs this season. The former All-Star’s OPS hasn’t dipped below .750 at any point this season, with Happ bumping it to .766 over the last couple of weeks. Over that stretch, Happ’s totaled ten hits, 12 runs scored, four homers, and eight RBI, highlighting his perceived fantasy value each time out.
This contest has one of the highest totals on the betting board, suggesting that runs will be plentiful at Wrigley. That’s reflected in our aggregate model, which shows the Cubs with the best Expected Runs total this evening. Happ is integral to that production and should excel against Clevinger and his underwhelming metrics.
