The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lawrence Butler ($2,000): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
The Cardinals and A’s start a series in St. Louis on Monday, and there is a good bargain play on each side of the matchup. Not only are both these plays good values, they’re both available at the rock-bottom minimum of $2,000. If there is a high-priced play you’re looking to build around, these two players can be the keys to unlocking a superstar stack while staying under your salary cap.
Butler was a recent call-up for the A’s, who are giving their young prospects a chance to get meaningful playing time in the majors. The 23-year-old lefty was just ranked the No. 5 prospect in the team’s system by MLB Pipeline. He started the season in Double-A with the Midland Rockhounds, hitting .285 with 10 homers, a .363 wOBA, and 13 stolen bases in 67 games. In 22 games at Triple-A, he hit .280 with five homers, a .361 wOBA, and eight stolen bases. He has not homered or stolen a base since being called up before this past weekend’s series in Washington, but he did go 1-for-4 with a double in each of the A’s two most recent games.
On Monday, Butler and the A’s offer some fascinating value against Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.20 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. Mikolas has a low K% and pitches to contact, so there should be some value in the Oakland lineup, which has been a little more productive lately.
Butler has a 91% Bargain Rating, the third-highest OF on Monday’s slate.
Luken Baker ($2,000): First Baseman, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals bring the third-highest Implied Run Total of the night on the other side of this matchup, and Baker could be a great way to grab a piece of that action. He has an 85% Bargain Rating, the second-highest at 1B on Monday’s slate.
Baker was called up on Saturday but has yet to appear in a game for the Cardinals. He is a big-time power prospect, though, and has a high ceiling for a player so cheap.
In Triple-A, Baker smashed 33 homers in 84 games for the Memphis Redbirds and hit .334 with a .480 wOBA and 98 RBI. He finished his stint in the minors with a 17-game hitting streak, during which he went 26-for-71 (.367) with 10 home runs and a .526 wOBA.
J.P. Sears has given up 25 homers in his 23 starts, so the Cardinals are a good place to go searching for power on Monday, making Baker an excellent punt play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($11,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Both the FantasyLabs and THE BATX projections point to Scherzer as the pitcher with the highest ceiling on Monday night. In fact, he has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection on THE BATX on DraftKings.
Scherzer also has an 87% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is the third-highest priced option, but on DraftKings, he costs more than any other scheduled starting pitcher. Scherzer has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate and a fairly positive matchup as he and the Rangers host the struggling Angels, who have gone just 3-9 in their last 12 games.
Mad Max will be making his third start for the Rangers. In his first two, he allowed just four runs on 10 hits over 13 innings to pick up a pair of wins and average 25.4 DraftKings points and 46 FanDuel points in those outings. Even though his strikeouts are down a little, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in both outings and should be set up for another strong start Monday.
Hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Acuña continues to post awe-inspiring numbers in multiple categories and has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Acuña extended his Major League lead to 55 stolen bases on the year. He also has 26 homers, an MLB-best .421 OBP, and an MLB-leading 107 runs scored. His .423 wOBA and .237 ISO have helped him average 12.8 DraftKings points and 16.6 FanDuel points per game in his 117 games this season. It’s impressive to see a player post that kind of production over a short span, but he has kept up his pace all year. He’s even trending up in August, averaging 13.3 DraftKings points and 17.4 FanDuel points with two homers and four stolen bases in his 13 games this month.
On Monday, Acuña and the Braves welcome in the Yankees and will face righty Clarke Schmidt. The Braves lineup has been amazing all season, and you can see using our PlateIQ tool how favorable their matchup is this Monday:
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Grayson Rodriguez ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) at San Diego Padres
Rodriguez has been much better since returning to the Majors after the All-Star break, although he’s still searching for his first win since May. Rodriguez was knocked around in April and May but has been solid in his five most recent starts.
He boasts a 3.45 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP in those five outings, with 24 strikeouts in 28 2⁄3 innings. Despite no wins due to a lack of run support, he has still averaged 14.3 DraftKings points and 26.6 FanDuel points over that stretch.
Those matchups have also been against some of the most formidable lineups in the Majors. He held his own against the Dodgers, Rays, Blue Jays, and Astros, and he went 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Yankees for 19.25 DraftKings points and 35 FanDuel points.
Facing the Padres at Petco Park is one of his best matchups since returning, and he could be a great value SP to pair with Scherzer.
THE BATX has him projected for the third-highest Points per Salary or any starting pitcher on the main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s projected for relatively low ownership on both sites as well.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
Sign Up, Get $200 Deposit Bonus
Hitters
Corbin Carroll ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The Diamondbacks need to be on your radar as they head to Denver this Monday. They have the highest Implied Run Total by a wide margin and are heavily favored at -240.
Even though the Arizona offense hasn’t been clicking, this should be exactly what they need to get going. Not only do they get the boost of batting in the rarified air of Coors Field, but they also get to face Chris Flexen. He’s made three starts since joining the Rockies and has allowed 14 runs on 22 hits, including six home runs. The result is an ugly 8.56 ERA, 9.49 FIP, and 2.20 WHIP.
In his rookie season, Carroll has shown the same kind of power and speed combo that makes Acuña an elite option. He has 21 homers and 36 stolen bases in his 113 games this season, averaging 9.9 DraftKings points and 12.9 FanDuel points. Over his past 15 games, Carroll has struggled to just a .164 batting average, but he has shown signs of shaking off his mini-slump and has hit safely in five of his past six games with a double, a triple, and a stolen base.
Carroll has the second-highest median and ceiling projections on the entire slate from THE BATX projections.
Tommy Pham ($3,700 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
Sticking with the Diamondbacks, Pham is under $4K on DraftKings and under $3.5K on FanDuel. He brings a very high ceiling into the matchup and should be able to outproduce salary-based expectations. Stacking him and Carroll in your outfield gives you some correlation and upside.
Arizona traded for Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline. After scuffling to a 1-for-16 start with the team, he has hit safely in his five most recent contests, exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four games on FanDuel and four of his past six on DraftKings.
In those six games, Pham went 6-for-23 (.261) with two doubles, a home run, six RBI, and three stolen bases.
With such a great matchup, he’s hard to overlook at this salary if he continues to hit in the heart of the lineup.
