The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dairon Blanco ($2,100): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
The Royals have the highest Team Value Rating on the slate as they are implied for 5.2 runs. Outfielder Dairon Blanco has displayed upside with his ability to swipe bases. Through 37 games, he already has 12 stolen bases. Blanco has yet to hit a home run but has six doubles and four triples, as his speed causes havoc on the base paths for opposing pitchers.
Blanco is $2,100 on DraftKings with the highest Bargain Rating on the slate of 97%. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this Royals offense against Cardinals veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright who just gave up seven runs at home to the Rockies. Wainwright’s career-high 7.81 ERA and career-low 12.2% strikeout rate makes this a great matchup for Blanco.
Jordan Luplow ($2,200): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Jordan Luplow is another cheap outfielder worth getting exposure to, especially at his sub-5% ownership. The Twins claimed Luplow off waivers in early August, and he has already made an impact hitting 5-for-10 with a stolen base. Luplow has double-digit DraftKings points in two of his five games played, which is difficult to find at his very cheap $2,200 salary.
Luplow is projected to bat fourth in the Twins lineup against Phillies left-hander Christopher Sanchez. Getting the platoon advantage is another added bonus for Luplow, as all nine of Sanchez’s home runs allowed this season have come to right-handed batters. The Twins may only have a 4.3 implied run total in this spot, but Luplow provides incredible salary relief.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lance Lynn ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Since being acquired by the Dodgers in late July, Lance Lynn has put together back-to-back strong outings averaging 24.1 DraftKings points per game. For the White Sox, Lynn had a 6-9 record with a 6.47 ERA and 2.17 HR/9. Looking rejuvenated with the Dodgers in two starts, Lynn is 2-0 with 13 strikeouts and all four earned runs allowed coming from solo home runs.
Lynn has the highest ceiling on the slate, as the Dodgers are a -300 home favorite. The Rockies are notoriously the worst road team in the league, and they have the third-highest strikeout rate this season. Lynn’s 26.8% strikeout rate and slate-high 7.09 strikeout prediction makes him a great cash-game pitcher. He has the highest projected ownership on both sites.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) at New York Mets
Ronald Acuna Jr. is running away with the National League MVP voting as he leads the league in stolen bases and is third in both wOBA and batting average. His .245 ISO and 26 home runs are among the league’s best. Acuna Jr’s salary may be a sticker shock, but he has double-digit DraftKings points in 12 of his last 17 games. He has been the model of consistency.
Mets right-hander Tylor Megill will take the mound tonight as he is coming off back-to-back rough outings. In seven innings pitched in those two starts, Megill has allowed nine earned runs with only five strikeouts. This is another fantastic matchup for Acuna Jr. against a weak starter. This season, he has a .247 ISO and .438 wOBA against right-handers (via PlateIQ):
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Justin Verlander returned to the Astros last week, where he claimed the AL Cy Young Award in both 2019 and 2022. In his first start with the organization since his departure, Verlander allowed two earned runs through seven innings against the Yankees. His strikeout rate is down to 20.5% this season, but luckily he faces the Angels tonight, who have a 24.2% rate.
Verlander is a -175 home favorite against the Angels, who have a 3.8 implied run total. He has the third-highest projected strikeouts on the slate, given this excellent matchup. Paired with the high strikeout rate is an ice-cold offense that has lost seven of their last nine games, averaging 3.8 runs per game. It has been a tough year, but this is a great spot for the veteran.
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Hitters
MJ Melendez ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
There are several Royals hitters who are popping in our models tonight, including MJ Melendez. He will get the platoon advantage against Wainwright, which bodes well for Melendez as he 17 of his 21 doubles and 10 of his 12 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. Melendez’s 28.4% strikeout rate will be mitigated as Wainwright’s strikeout rate is low.
Melendez is also swinging a hot bat as he has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of his last six games. He has at least one hit in every game during that stretch, including four home runs. Make sure to monitor the weather in Kansas City tonight, as that may be the only thing that slows down the Royals offense in this matchup against the veteran right-hander.
Willson Contreras ($3,500 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Staying in the same game, Willson Contreras has proven to be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. Behind Acuna Jr., Contreras has the second-highest projected ownership on DraftKings due to the weak position and his cheap price tag. With a 5.9 implied run total, Contreras will have plenty of opportunity to drive in runs batting fifth for the Cardinals.
The Royals will start Dylan Coleman as the opener and Angel Zerpa as the long reliever. Coleman has a double-digit ERA, while Zerpa’s 6.75 ERA isn’t much better. Both pitchers will have a tough time keeping the Cardinals in check. Contreras has been boom or bust lately, with three games of double-digit DraftKings points and only seven total points in the other three.
