The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Pablo Reyes ($2,600): Second Base/Shortstop, Boston Red Sox
For the second day in a row, we’re going back to the Red Sox. This time though, we’re focusing on the top bargain option, Pablo Reyes. Hits have come in bunches for the Red Sox middle infielder since he re-joined the big club a few weeks ago. That should continue against Kansas City Royals southpaw Austin Cox.
Reyes has been clubbing the ball against the Royals. Through the first three games of the series, Reyes has two three-hit outings. Moreover, that’s positively impacted run production, with the 29-year-old tallying four RBI and three runs scored in the series. As expected, the righty Reyes does most of his damage against lefties. His OPS jumps to an eye-popping 1.106 against southpaws, representing four of his six extra-base hits in limited action this year.
Cox pitches to contact, which won’t serve him well at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have a handful of hard-hitting righties in their lineup, and Reyes should be included in that bunch.
Curtis Mead ($2,100): Third Base, Tampa Bay Rays
No team gets more out of their roster than the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays consistently develop prospects, ensuring they have a platoon of players to choose from when needed. For now, Mead has been called upon to step into the lineup.
Mead has just 11 big league plate appearances under his belt, recording his only hit in his first at-bat. Nevertheless, he matches up well against left-hander Matthew Liberatore and should have more fruitful at-bats on Thursday night. Mead has flashed his power potential in Triple-A. The Rays infielder had a solid .453 slugging percentage with the Durham Bulls, with improved splits against southpaws.
Mead started the season as one of the top-rated prospects in the Rays’ system. Now’s his time to shine as Mead embarks on the early stages of his MLB career. According to our aggregate modeling, he’s among the top values, sitting near the top of our Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary leaderboards.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
James Paxton ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Red Sox starting pitching has been underwhelming this season, but the team would be in a much worse spot if not for Paxton. Among Red Sox pitchers with more than ten starts, Paxton leads the team in WHIP, opponent batting average, and K/9. He’ll get another chance to assert his dominance tonight against the lowly Royals.
Paxton’s success is also reflected in his underlying metrics. The soft-throwing lefty ranks in the 82nd percentile in expected batting average and 75th percentile in expected slugging percentage, contributing to his top-tier 3.25 expected ERA. Further, his fantasy value is amplified by his strikeout stuff. Paxton uses his four-pitch mix to induce a 29.0% whiff rate and 27.3% strikeout percentage.
The Royals play into those strengths on tonight’s docket. KC has compiled the ninth-worst OPS against lefties, with a 26.3% strikeout rate, allowing Paxton to reach his fantasy ceiling tonight.
Based on our algorithm, Paxton comes at a discounted price. The former first-round pick leads our median and ceiling projections but has a modest salary in the $9K range on both platforms. That leaves plenty of wiggle room for other top-end fantasy producers in the budget.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
There’s still a lot on the line for the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA is battling for supremacy in the NL West and attempting to catch the Braves for the top spot in the National League. The battles run deeper, though, as Betts is trying to prevent Ronald Acuna Jr. from running away with the MVP award. His recent sample supports that there’s more to be decided, as Betts and the Dodgers make some noise.
Betts has been on another level lately. Since the start of June, the seven-time All-Star has an MVP-worthy .640 slugging percentage, with 50 runs scored and 44 RBI. Somehow, those metrics have inflated even higher in August, as eight of Betts’ 13 hits have gone for extra-bases, yielding a .763 slugging percentage. Those stats could climb even higher with a matchup against the Colorado Rockies on deck.
Colorado sends southpaw Ty Blach to the bump for the series opener, playing into Betts’ strengths. Those advantages are reflected in Betts’ PlateIQ profile. The Dodgers’ slugger has a mind-numbing 0.406 ISO rating and 0.450 wOBA (via PlateIQ):
Betts also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
It’s been a rough few weeks for Nola, The Phillies ace has been tagged for five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Still, a meeting with the inferior Washington Nationals should help Nola get his season back on track.
Despite his recent performances, Nola remains behind his expected metrics, implying he’s a progression candidate. His ERA has inflated to 4.58, but Nola’s expected mark is a much more palatable 3.86. Moreover, the silver lining in Nola’s game scores is that his strikeout metrics are still hovering near the top end of the spectrum. The former All-Star sits in the 91st percentile in chase rate, contributing to his above-average 25.1% strikeout percentage.
Inevitably, Nola will progress back into normal ranges, elevating his fantasy appeal along the way. An intra-divisional battle against a Nats squad with a .664 OPS over the last few weeks should facilitate a good outcome.
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Hitters
Bryce Harper ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Nola isn’t the only Phillie with plus fantasy potential tonight. Two-time MVP winner Bryce Harper has gassed opponents lately and projects as one of the pre-eminent performers on the evening slate.
August has been kind to Harper. The Phillies’ designated hitter has totaled 12 hits in nine games, accumulating seven RBI and seven runs scored. Further, he’s re-kindled his power stroke, torching opposing pitchers for five doubles and two homers. Still, there’s more room for improvement. Harper remains below his expected slugging percentage and further off his career norms, suggesting he’s just taken flight as he continues his upward trajectory.
Don’t waste time worrying about the lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup tonight. Harper actually has better splits against southpaws, and Patrick Corbin is one of the most combustible pitchers in the bigs. Tonight, Harper is the match that lights the gas can that is Corbin.
Randy Arozarena ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Now, more than ever, the Rays need their bats to step up. Injuries to several starting pitchers have put them behind the eight-ball in the AL East playoff race. Thankfully, they have players like Arozarena to offset those losses.
Arozarena was mired in a post-Home Run Derby slump but is exorcising the curse. The former Rookie of the Year has hits in three straight and five of his past seven. More importantly, he clubbed his second home run since July 2, which should be an indication of what’s come. Arozarena has fallen below his expected slugging percentage of .455, despite maintaining a 49.7% hard-hit and 13.3% barrel rates.
Randy’s best efforts are reserved for left-handed pitchers. Six of his 18 home runs have come in just 75 at-bats against southpaws, positively impacting Arozarena’s slugging percentage. He’ll need to be at his best if the Rays want to head into the weekend off a series win.
