The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Mike Brosseau ($2,200): Third/First Base, Milwaukee Brewers
It’s been a tepid start to the season for Mike Brosseau. Through the first week of the season, the Milwaukee Brewers corner infielder has accumulated just three at-bats. Nevertheless, he should draw in against southpaw David Peterson, setting him up for a season-best performance.
Brosseau has a few advanced metrics working in his favor. First, he’s put together an above-average barrel rate, getting the meaty part of the bat to the ball 7.0% of the time. Combined with his optimal launch angle of 15.5 and modestly inflated weighted on-base average, Brosseau has the ability to be an impact fantasy player.
That’s particularly pronounced against left-handed pitching. Throughout his career, Brosseau has established a .820 OPS against lefties, compared to a dismal .648 mark against right-handers. A jump in slugging percentage accounts for the biggest difference, jumping nearly 130 points to .482. Factoring in Peterson’s penchant for hard contact, we could see Brosseau reach his fantasy ceiling at a bargain price.
Jose Siri ($2,700): Outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
We’re taking advantage of another righty vs. lefty matchup with our other bargain selection, highlighting Jose Siri’s hot start to the campaign.
The Tampa Bay Rays outfielder has found his rhythm early this season. Siri has established a jaw-dropping .867 slugging percentage to start the campaign and is tied for the team lead with six RBIs and four extra-base hits. He’s projected to continue that onslaught against a combustible Patrick Corbin, sitting near the top of our Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary categories.
For the last three years, Corbin has ranked in the bottom 8% of MLB pitchers in expected ERA. Although the Washington Nationals were hoping he bottomed out with his 6.41 benchmark last season, he’s set the bar lower to start the 2023 campaign. After his first start, Corbin’s established a 12.65 expected ERA, thanks partly to his .739 slugging percentage.
Siri is mashing the ball and will make him pay for hanging pitches in the zone.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($9,800 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole came out with something to prove against the San Francisco Giants. The five-time All-Star dazzled en route to setting a Yankees franchise record with 11 punchouts on Opening Day. Based on our projections, he should duplicate that success against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Cole kept the Giants off balance all day. The former ERA Title winner allowed just three hits and induced a whopping 100% whiff rate with his slider and 75% mark with his changeup. Predictably, six of his 11 strikeouts came on off-speed offerings, which will perpetuate the Philies’ slow start to the season. Philadelphia ranks among the 10-worst teams in strikeouts and strikeout percentage, leaving little hope they turn things around on Wednesday.
Year after year, Cole ranks among the best in strikeout percentage and K/9. Those metrics set him up for success against the free-swinging Phillies and apart from the rest of the pitchers available on Wednesday’s main slate.
Hitter
Oneil Cruz ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
When Corey Kluber hangs them up, he’ll get to stare at a mantle full of personal accolades. Hopefully, that will distract him from the downward spiral we’ve seen from him over the latter part of his career. Kluber has seen his underlying metrics deteriorate over the past few seasons, and those issues will only be compounded by pitching in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have enjoyed their time in Beantown, recording 11 runs through the first two games of the interleague series. Oneil Cruz hasn’t gotten into the fun yet, but he projects as an elite talent on Wednesday’s main slate.
These last two games notwithstanding, Cruz has been a tentpole in the Pirates’ production. The 24-year-old has five hits, three RBIs, two runs scored, and a homer through his first 19 at-bats. Still, we haven’t seen him unlock his full potential as he sits behind career norms in hard-hit rate, barrel, and sweet spot percentages. Once we see him reach that level, Cruz could emerge as one of the top players in the National League. The way Kluber is serving him up, we could see flashes of that in today’s series finale.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Cristian Javier ($8,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
One of the few teams who have looked worse than the Phillies is the Detroit Tigers. The perennial basement dwellers have accumulated the fourth-most strikeouts this season, contributing to their MLB-worst .556 OPS. That sets the stage for another solid outing from Cristian Javier.
Javier got off to a rocky start, giving up three earned runs in 5.0 innings against the Chicago White Sox. However, his metrics were better than the outcome implies, and we should see a bounce-back effort from the hard-throwing righty.
The Houston Astros hurler had a 50% whiff rate or better on his curveball and slider but left a few sliders up in the zone, resulting in extra-base hits. That was the difference in the contest, with three of the eight hits he gave up coming on misplaced sliders. We’re anticipating fewer mistakes from Javier on Wednesday, but even if he’s not perfect, the hapless Tigers don’t have the offensive punch to make him pay.
Javier rates as one of the best analytics pitchers in the American League. The 26-year-old should get back on track in his friendly confines on Wednesday.
Hitters
Randy Arozarena ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Washinton Nationals
Randy Arozarena has become an MLB favorite. His off-field personality matches his enthusiasm on the field, and the former Rookie of the Year continues to deliver exceptional performances.
The Rays’ outfielder carried his momentum from the WBC to the regular season. Arozarena has a 1.122 OPS to start the season, putting up a team-best six runs while tied for second with five RBIs.
Analytically, Arozarena stacks up with the best of them. The 28-year-old ranks among the top 9% of hitters in average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, and expected weighted on-base average. He’s not missing with the thick part of the bat either, establishing an impressive 28.6% barrel rate through the season’s first four games.
Corbin won’t stand in the way of Arozarena’s success, and we like him to reach his ceiling against the Nats.
Marcus Semien ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Texas Rangers are off to an inconsistent start to the season. They looked like World Series contenders against the Phillies, only to falter versus the Baltimore Orioles in the second series of the year. They will try to salvage what they can against the O’s, and Marcus Semien should do his part to elevate the Rangers.
Semien adds fantasy value in every part of his game. The former Silver Slugger had five hits, a home run, and a stolen base through the season’s first two games before cooling off and going 0-for-8 against the Orioles. With Grayson Rodriguez toeing the rubber, we like Semien to get back on track on Wednesday’s main slate.
The left-handed batting Semien has an obvious advantage over the Orioles’ righty. Moreover, he’ll get his fair share of plate appearances in his usual spot atop the batting order. Semien projects as one of the best available, and he will do his part to welcome G-Rod to the bigs.
