The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Conner Capel ($2,100): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
With a salary barely over the minimum, Capel is projected to hit second in the Athletics lineup, bringing the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate using the FantasyLabs projections.
The Athletics seem to be planning on platooning the 25-year-old lefty, who they acquired off of waivers last September from the Cardinals. In his 22 games between St. Louis and Oakland last season, he hit .308 with three home runs, 11 RBI, a .371 wOBA, and a .212 ISO. In a small sample size, most of his damage came at home, where he had a .450 wOBA. He is 1-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts to start the year, but he had a strong Spring Training, hitting .250 with an .884 OPS, two home runs and five stolen bases.
THE BAT X projects Capel to hit .228 with seven stolen bases and six home runs in 80 games this season, but he has shown the potential to outperform those expectations if he gets regular playing time at this premium lineup spot. He has low projected ownership and provides good leverage, in addition to a 94% Bargain Rating.
Capel and the Athletics will face Guardians starter Zach Plesac, who struggled last season against left-handed hitters. He allowed 11 of his 19 home runs allowed to lefties and surrendered a .360 wOBA against them. Capel can contribute with either his power or speed in this favorable matchup and is a great value to consider at this rock-bottom price.
Luke Raley ($2,000): First Baseman/Outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
Raley is even cheaper than Capel and should be in a good spot as the Rays look to keep rolling after sweeping the Tigers to start the season. He’s projected to hit fifth and brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus using a blended approach with FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections.
Raley appeared in all three games for the Rays but only got one start since Detroit started a pair of lefties. He went 1-for-7 (.143) with a run scored and an RBI in his limited action. While it hasn’t translated to regular season success yet, Raley tore up Spring Training, going 14-for-43 (.326) with two doubles and five home runs while adding a stolen base. Last year at Triple-A, he had 14 homers and seven stolen bases in 63 games.
Like Capel, Raley will be on the positive side of the splits as he faces Trevor Williams of the Nationals. Lefties hit for a .376 wOBA with a 1.62 HR/9 rate against Williams last year, and he allowed a 37.2% hard-hit rate. Raley has only put four balls in play this season, but two of those had exit velocities over 97 mph, so he’s seeing the ball well and putting it in play with authority, which could lead to good results Monday night.
Raley matches five Pro Trends and has a 97% Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Nestor Cortes ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
According to both FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections, Cortes has the highest ceiling of all the starting pitchers Monday’s slate. He’s expected to be a fairly popular option, but he still gets a strong Leverage rating since his ceiling is so much higher than the other options on the board.
Cortes brings his high ceiling partly due to his strikeout prediction — the second-highest on the slate — and partly due to his win expectancy: his -178 odds make him the fourth-largest favorite on the slate.
THE BAT projects Cortes to go 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA and 3.50 FIP with a 9.08 K/9. In the last two years, Cortes has totaled 269 strikeouts in 251 1/3 innings and emerged as a reliable starter for New York. He did give up six runs this Spring Training but still had 12 strikeouts in his 11 innings. His ramp-up was a little delayed due to a hamstring strain, but he looked sharp with just one run allowed over eight innings with seven strikeouts in his two final outings in the Grapefruit League.
Pitching at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium would seem to be an obstacle, but it historically hasn’t been one for Nestor. Cortes had a 1.95 ERA, 2.68 FIP and 9.14 K/9 rate at home. The Phillies have power in the lineup, so there is the potential for some runs allowed, but his strikeouts and win potential make him the highest ceiling option on this slate made up of fourth and fifth starters.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The FantasyLabs projections have Betts edging out Aaron Judge for the top ceiling spot on this slate. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on Fanduel, where he is extremely affordable. He is projected to be in his usual leadoff spot atop the Dodgers’ order, who lead the slate in implied team total.
While Los Angeles split a four-game set with Arizona, Betts started the season 3-for-17 (.231) with a home run, a double, three runs scored, and an RBI. He posted a 22% barrel rate and 44% hard-hit rate, which indicates he could be poised for positive regression if his BABIP returns to normal.
On Monday, he’ll face Rockies’ starter Ryan Feltner, who made 20 appearances last season with a 5.83 ERA and 4.76 FIP. Even though he plays at Coors Field, he was actually hit harder on the road, where he gave up 11 of his 16 home runs and allowed a .354 wOBA. Most of that damage was inflicted by right-handed batters, who posted a .355 wOBA against him.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
George Kirby ($8,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angles
Kirby is an option that gets a nice boost in the blended projections as he takes on the Angels in his first start of the season. He’s surprisingly cheap on DraftKings with a 75% Bargain Rating and matches five Pro Trends. The 25-year-old went 8-5 last year with a 3.39 ERA and an even better 2.99 FIP. He also posted a strong 24.5% strikeout rate. Even with slight regression expected by THE BAT this season, he should be one of the strongest options on the night.
In his most recent Cactus League outing, Kirby fanned nine Dodgers in five shutout innings, striking out seven of the first 11 batters he faced. He looks fully ready to avoid a sophomore slump and gets a fairly decent matchup to begin his second season.
The Angels have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and their lineup is still a little thin behind the big bats of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. In his four starts against his division rivals last season, Kirby posted a 3.04 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings.
Kirby’s strikeout numbers also look good in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Hitters
Aaron Judge ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Judge has picked up right where he left off last year, smashing two home runs in his first three games. He is already 6-for-13 (.462) with a .603 wOBA and a 75% hard-hit rate. He has the highest median projection of any hitter on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the blended approach. Since he’s significantly cheaper on FanDuel, he has a robust 96% Bargain Rating.
As the Bronx Bombers continue their homestand, they’ll take on right-hander Taijuan Walker, making his Phillies debut. Walker struggled during Spring Training, allowing eight runs in 9 1/3 innings. However, he has a history of turning things around when the real season starts. Judge has gone 4-for-11 against Walker in their past meetings, and all four hits have been home runs.
Especially at home, Judge is always an option to consider due to his elite power upside, and in this matchup, he’s a big bat to build around.
Josh Jung ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Rangers have scored more runs than any team in the Majors, even though they’ve played one fewer game than some teams. They scored 29 runs in their three-game sweep of Philadelphia and hit .343 as a team with a .420 wOBA and six home runs. The fact that two of those performances were against Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola is even more impressive.
One of the best ways to get an affordable piece of their lineup is by looking at Jung at the hot corner. In the blended model, Jung has the highest median and ceiling projections of any 3B with a salary under $3K on DraftKings.
The 25-year-old was a top prospect throughout his rise to the Majors and looks ready to contribute to a good lineup on a nightly basis. He hit .321 in 20 games in Spring Training with five doubles, a triple, and three home runs. He picked up his first home run of the season on Sunday Night Baseball last night and is 2-for-11 with two walks and four runs scored.
Jung is projected to hit fifth against Kyle Bradish on Monday. Bradish wasn’t great last season and got knocked around this spring, allowing 12 runs in 16 1/3 innings. Baltimore’s defense also looked awful over the weekend at Fenway, as the Red Sox scored nine runs in all three games. The Rangers should be able to keep piling up runs in this matchup against the Birds, and Jung is a great place to grab some leverage at low ownership.
