The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Call ($2,600): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Projected to bat leadoff for the Washington Nationals, Alex Call is only $2,600 on DraftKings resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. In his second year with the Nationals, Call already has nearly half of his home run total from last season and has increased his hard-hit rate to 34.5%. His stolen base upside also makes him one of the better value options tonight.
Call has been on base at least twice in four of his last five games, as he has drawn six walks during that time. He is averaging double-digit DraftKings points in his last five games despite facing pretty good pitching staffs against the Twins and Mets. With projected ownership under 5%, Call is a great way to differentiate from the Coors Field chalk.
Rich Hill will take the mound for the Pirates, trying to find whatever is left in his tank. The journeyman is in his first year with the Pirates and already has a career-high 2.42 HR/9, with all seven home runs allowed coming against right-handed batters. His career-high 35.8% hard-hit rate is also a bad sign of things to come.
It’s a great matchup for Alex Call.
Note: Be sure to monitor the weather leading up to lock.
Emmanuel Rivera ($2,600): Third Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks
Finding value at Coors Field is always an added boost to a player’s projection. Priced at $2,600 on DraftKings, Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Emmanuel Rivera is projected to bat second in the lineup. Rivera has the highest projected Plus/Minus in our in-house projections and is second in THE BAT X projections making him the best value on the slate.
Rivera isn’t expected to get many opportunities in the Diamondbacks lineup unless he delivers with the bat, which he has done thus far. In his two games played, Rivera is 3-for-4 and has an RBI in each game. Batting atop the Diamondbacks lineup will result in many plate appearances, especially given the team has a 5.9 implied run total, the highest on the slate.
Kyle Freeland with take the mound for the Rockies after giving up six home runs and 13 earned runs in his last three games. Pitching at Coors Field is a nightmare for anyone, and it has gotten the best of Freeland throughout his career.
His ERA jumps to 4.79 at home, along with a 1.34 HR/9. With a Park Factor of 100 and batting second, Rivera is an elite value play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jacob deGrom ($11,500 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
No other pitcher comes close to the ceiling that Jacob deGrom has on this 11-game slate, even in a matchup against the Yankees. In our in-house projections and THE BAT X projections, deGrom is the clear-cut top pitcher, which is resulting in nearly 40% ownership. deGrom is coming off of his second 11-strikeout outing last game in only 80 total pitches.
Our models have deGrom projected to throw over 96 pitches, and his 9.25 strikeout prediction is nearly three more than the next closest pitcher. In his first season with the Rangers, deGrom has a monstrous 42.2% strikeout rate and a 0.79 WHIP. He will challenge the lead league in those statistics all season long with his untouchable upside every night on the mound.
Due to injuries, deGrom will get the luxury of facing a Yankees lineup that is without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson. They have a 2.9 implied run total, as the Rangers are a -225 home favorite. This lineup doesn’t have the juice needed in this matchup, as deGrom will have no trouble putting up a top pitcher’s score and is a staple in cash games.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
Not only do our in-house projections and THE BAT X projections align for the ceiling pitcher, but they also align for the ceiling batter with Jose Ramirez. With an extra-base hit in three of his last four games, Ramirez looks like a great one-off especially on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating. He continues to lead the Guardians in nearly every hitting statistic.
Ramirez is one of the most feared hitters in baseball with his low 10.7% strikeout rate and his .208 ISO. He is already well on his way to another great season despite not getting much help from the rest of the Guardians lineup. Ramirez is a switch hitter but has done much better against right-handed pitchers, which is who he’ll face with Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta.
Through his first four starts, Pivetta is off to an average start. He started the season great, but his last two starts have been less than ideal, with nine combined earned runs allowed, including two home runs. The Guardians are favored as they have a 4.6 implied run total.
Prioritize Ramirez on FanDuel; he is a strong pay-up hitter, given his consistent success.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($10,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pairing Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez with Jacob deGrom on DraftKings is very difficult, but Valdez can make for a strong contrarian option when fading deGrom. It would be hard to submit a lineup without either Valdez or deGrom as one of the two starting pitchers. Valdez leads all pitchers with 8 Pro Trends and is projected to throw 100 pitches tonight.
Through five starts, Valdez has a team-high 2.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His 26% strikeout rate is respectable, especially when facing a Phillies lineup that has an above-average strikeout rate. Valdez has recorded over 20 DraftKings points in four straight starts as he is one of the most consistent pitchers on the slate, throwing 85+ pitches in every single game.
The Phillies have a 3.5 implied run total as they will counter with Aaron Nola on the mound. The Astros are still a -150 home favorite looking to win their seventh game in their last eight. This isn’t the best matchup, given the Phillies’ right-handed power, but Valdez has only allowed three earned runs at home in 18 total innings.
He’s a really good contrarian option to deGrom.
Hitters
William Contreras ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Eight of the top nine projected owned hitters on DraftKings, according to THE BAT X projections, are on the Diamondbacks. The one who isn’t is Brewers catcher William Contreras projected for 15.6% ownership and is the top catcher play on the slate. Batting .309 on the season thus far, Contreras has recorded at least one hit in 16 of his 19 games played.
The Brewers will get a favorable matchup at home against Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson. In each of his last three starts, Anderson has allowed at least five earned runs and has a 2.25 HR/9 this season. Anderson’s 12% strikeout rate is a career-low, while his 36.6% hard-hit rate is a career-high. He has struggled, especially against right-handed batters like Contreras.
With the platoon advantage, Contreras fills a position that is always difficult to find value. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus among all catcher options and leads the position with 4 Pro Trends. The Brewers are implied for 4.9 runs against Anderson, with Contreras projected to bat cleanup. It’s a fantastic matchup for a catcher in a great batting order position.
Christian Walker ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Christian Walker is a boom or bust fantasy producer but has arguably the biggest upside in this Diamondbacks lineup. He leads the team with 15 RBIs, and his three home runs are one shy of Corbin Carroll, who also looks like a great option. Walker has the power to take Kyle Freeland deep, which we previously mentioned is notoriously bad pitching at Coors Field.
Walker had a career-high 36 home runs last season and is projected to bat cleanup in the Diamondbacks lineup. At only $3,800 on DraftKings, Walker is going to be one of the best First Baseman options on the slate. His power provides a significant upside, and he will have plenty of opportunities to add to his team-high RBI total batting in the cleanup spot.
Walker has at least two hits in three of his last seven games, with several extra-base hits. THE BAT X has Walker projected for 27 home runs this season, so this series would be a great time to get back on track with a few long balls. With the highest implied team total on the slate and the highest projected ownership, Walker is going to be very difficult to ignore.
