The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Esteury Ruiz ($2,900): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
The A’s have been a solid source of fantasy value this season despite their woeful 4-18 record. They have given several young hitters a chance near the top of their lineup, and no one in their projected order for Monday has a salary of $3,500 or higher. That doesn’t mean they’re worthless, though, especially in a good matchup against José Suarez ($5,800), who has allowed 13 runs on 21 hits in 11 2/3 innings over his first three starts of the season.
The highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate using the FantasyLabs projections comes from their new leadoff man, Ruiz. The 24-year-old was traded from the Padres to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade and flipped to the A’s as part of the Sean Murphy trade this past offseason.
He has established himself as the top leadoff hitter in Oakland by getting a hit in 11 of his past 13 games while going 15-for-46 (.325) and picking up four of his five stolen bases during that span. He has been particularly good against lefties, going 9-for-19 (.474) with one walk and three hit-by-pitches against southpaws.
Against Suarez, he brings interesting upside, and you can even build a bargain stack with him, Jordan Diaz ($2,700), Jesus Aguilar ($2,600), and Brent Rooker ($3,400).
Luke Voit ($2,500): First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
THE BAT X projections identify Voit as the infielder with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on Monday’s slate as he and the Brewers begin their series against the visiting Tigers. Voit has been platooning with Rowdy Tellez this season but should get the start Monday against lefty Matt Boyd ($6,600).
Voit has made the most of his opportunities, going 10-for-37 (.270) with a double and a 30.8% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Voit is still looking for his first homer as a member of the Brew Crew, but his 95 career home runs with a .218 career ISO show he brings plenty of power potential.
Voit has hit safely in five straight games, going 8-for-21 (.381) with four runs scored, four RBI, and a .373 wOBA. If he’s in the six-spot in the order, as projected, he’ll bring a lot of upside at this very cheap salary.
He also has excellent history against Boyd, going 3-for-9 in their past meetings with a pair of home runs.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($10,900 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Strider leads the Major Leagues with a ridiculous 14.73 K/9. He piled up 36 strikeouts in 22 innings while going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 2.28 FIP. Strider has at least 19 DraftKings points in each outing and has reached over 30 DraftKings points in the two games in which he got the win, including his most recent start against the Padres.
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, no starting pitcher comes close to matching Strider’s ceiling projection. He also brings the highest floor projection on both sites and slates. Even FanDuel, which includes the four games starting before 7:00 p.m. ET, doesn’t bring any starters who can match his upside into play. On DraftKings, Strider also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the 14 pitchers in play, showing he provides excellent value potential in addition to his massive ceiling.
Strider gets a solid home matchup against the Marlins. Even though the lineup is much improved from last year, Strider should be able to pile up strikeouts and post a huge total. His K prediction of 8.3 in our projections is more than two full strikeouts higher than any other pitcher on DraftKings and comes in just behind Nick Lodolo on FanDuel’s expanded slate.
The Braves are the heaviest favorites on the slate as well, so Strider has a good chance for a win as a key cornerstone for your lineups.
Hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
It looks like a good night to be Brave and build around Atlanta. Acuña is in the top two ceiling projections in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
After getting a late start last season due to injury last year, Acuña has come flying out of the gate to start 2023. He leads the MLB with 12 stolen bases and has averaged 13.0 DraftKings points over his first 22 games. Acuña had four stolen bases in his three-game weekend set in Houston, producing 47 DraftKings points with double-digit DraftKings points in four straight and six of his past seven.
Acuña isn’t just one-dimensional, though, and has three home runs with a .374 average and a .441 wOBA on the season.
This matchup should be a good one for Acuña, who has an excellent career track record against the Marlins. He has played 71 games in his career against Miami and has 22 home runs, nine more than he has against any other club. He has hit .318 in those contests and also swiped 16 bases.
The multi-faceted superstar isn’t expected to be highly owned on FanDuel, where he offers a 91% Leverage Rating and a 93% Bargain Rating.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
After a disastrous first start with the Blue Jays, Bassitt has outperformed salary-based expectations in three straight outings, and the blended projections have him set to do the same again on Monday. His season-long numbers are still skewed by his lousy day in St. Louis, but in his past three starts, he has a 1.96 ERA and 3.82 FIP while striking out 17 in 18 1/3 innings.
His best start of the season was his most recent outing when he held the Astros to just three hits in 6 1/3 shutout innings. He struck out five and finished with 25.84 DraftKings points and 43.99 FanDuel points. He’ll hope to build on that start and continue to put his first-start woes even further in the rear-view mirror.
Bassitt matches six Pro Trends on DraftKings and seven Pro Trends on FanDuel, matching Strider and Sonny Gray for the most on the slate.
The White Sox rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive numbers, so they’re a pretty neutral matchup for Bassitt as he makes his second start at home in Toronto.
Bassitt also fares well from a strikeout perspective in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
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Hitters
Hunter Renfroe ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Angels have the second-highest Implied Run Total on the slate, and there are plenty of reasons to love stacking the Halos in Anaheim on Monday. They’ll go up against Ken Waldichuk, who has allowed seven homers and 17 runs in 20 innings over his first four starts. Six of those seven gopher balls have been served up to righties, who have a robust .454 wOBA against him.
While Mike Trout is always a strong play in favorable matchups, and Taylor Ward can be a solid play as well, my favorite Angel in the outfield for this matchup is Renfroe. The free-agent addition has brought some solid thunder to the heart of the Angels’ order and has already smashed six home runs in his first 22 games.
Renfroe has been solid overall with a .274 average and .390 wOBA but has been especially productive against lefties. He has lived up to his rep as a lefty-crusher by going 9-for-18 (.500) against southpaws with two homers and a .587 wOBA in the early going.
He’s especially underpriced on FanDuel, where he has an 81% Bargain Rating, and he has a top-10 projection on DraftKings despite 14 hitters having more expensive salaries.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Like the Athletics, the Royals have been pretty dismal as a team on offense this season, but there are still some places to target good individual options. Over the past 12 games, Witt has found his stride, hitting .333 with two doubles, two triples, two home runs, and four stolen bases. That’s propelled him to an average of 10.9 DraftKings points per game, and he’s outperformed salary-based expectations in eight of those contests.
Witt has the highest projection at both shortstop and third base in the blended projections on FanDuel, and he has the highest median projection on DraftKings at shortstop.
Part of why Witt is projected so highly is that he gets a juicy matchup against lefty Tommy Henry ($5,000), who Arizona is calling up to replace Madison Bumgarner in the rotation. On the season, Witt has a .348 wOBA and .261 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
Henry may also be not quite ready for prime time after posting a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season and a 5.36 ERA in nine MLB starts last season. The Royals don’t have a ton of right-handed power hitters, but Witt should be a solid option to consider either on his own or with a few fellow Royals like Edward Olivares ($3,200), Salvador Perez ($4,800), and Hunter Dozier ($2,300).
