The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ezequiel Duran ($2,100): Short Stop/Outfielder, Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are coming off a sweep of the Kansas City Royals, where they scored 12 runs in back-to-back games. Ezequiel Duran only went 3-for-10 at the plate but finished with double-digit DraftKings points in each game, as he is still priced near the stone minimum. Duran has a 90% Bargain Rating and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus.
The Rangers are once again one of the better offenses on the slate, with a 4.8 implied run total. Duran is projected to bat second in the Rangers lineup resulting in 6 Pro Trends. His shortstop and outfield eligibility makes him easy to fit into all lineup builds. Duran will also get the platoon advantage against JP Sears, who is off to a tough start to the season.
In his first three starts, Sears has a 4.60 ERA with an 18.8% barrel percentage allowed. Sears has already been taken deep five times through 15.2 innings, resulting in a 2.87 HR/9. All five of his home runs allowed were from right-handed batters.
Duran is a fantastic value on a team that has the fifth-highest implied run total on this large 12-game slate.
Brice Turang ($2,100): Second Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
With Luis Urias on the injured list, rookie Brice Turang has filled in nicely with at least one hit in 11 of his 17 games played. Turang has a .323 wOBA as he is an all-around great fantasy producer with home run power and stolen base upside. In 58 plate appearances thus far, Turang has two home runs and three stolen bases. Difficult to find that versatility at $2,100.
The Brewers have a 14-5 record, which is tied for the best in the National League. They finally return home after a 10-game road trip and have a 4.9 implied run total. Turang is projected to bat sixth in the Brewers lineup as the left-handed batter has the platoon advantage against Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta who has a 5.77 FIP in his first three starts.
The veteran right-hander Pivetta still has a respectable 25% strikeout rate, but his walk rate has climbed to a career-worst 12.5%. Pivetta’s statcast numbers are horrific, as he is allowing a 59% hard-hit rate and a 20.5% barrel percentage.
Turang has a 99% Bargain Rating and is a great salary saver on a slate filled with top-tier pitching options.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Shohei Ohtani is off to a fantastic start on the mound and will now get the luxury of facing a Royals offense that is tied for the second-lowest runs scored. Ohtani has a 0.86 ERA in four starts while allowing a ridiculous .091 batting average. His last start was shortened by a long rain delay, so his arm should be well rested going into this juicy matchup against the Royals.
Uncharacteristically, Ohtani has a 15.9% walk rate, but his strikeout rate remains one of the best in the league at 32.9%. The Royals have the league’s third-highest strikeout rate as a team at 25.8%, paired with the worst wOBA in the league at .268. Ohtani is projected for 7.76 strikeouts tonight, which is much higher than any other pitcher on the slate.
The Royals have an implied run total of 3.2, as the park factor of 83 is also in favor of Ohtani. Despite his salary rising, Ohtani is the ace of the slate. Our in-house projections and THE BAT X projections align as Ohtani has the highest ceiling among all pitchers.
Ohtani has a chance to go deep in this game and could get close to double-digit strikeouts.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
No longer minimum-priced on DraftKings, Fernando Tatis Jr. still has the highest ceiling in our in-house and THE BAT X projections. Tatis Jr. returned from his PED suspension and went 0-for-5 at the plate with two strikeouts last night. He is still one of the most feared batters in the league, batting leadoff for a loaded Padres lineup implied for 4.9 runs.
Last season Tatis Jr. hit a career-high 42 home runs, had 99 runs scored, 97 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases. His .328 ISO and .611 slugging percentage were among the league’s best. Tatis Jr. has a very high ceiling, and with his dual eligibility of shortstop and outfield on DraftKings and FanDuel, he is easy to fit in all lineups builds in a bounce-back spot.
Diamondbacks’ right-hander Zac Gallen has put together back-to-back incredible starts after a poor first two outings. However, in his start against the Padres earlier this season, Gallen allowed four earned runs and two home runs and only had three strikeouts through six innings. Now the Padres added Tatis Jr. to the mix, who looks great on both sites tonight.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($9,400 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Pairing Shohei Ohtani with Aaron Nola is the optimal route at pitcher on DraftKings. THE BAT X projections have Nola with the highest projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling as he faces the Colorado Rockies at home. Nola is much easier to fit into lineups due to his salary, which is resulting in him having the highest projected ownership on the slate.
Nola has gotten off to a slow start with a 5.91 ERA through his first four starts but has been very unlucky with a 56.7% on-base percentage. His xERA is 3.62, so we can expect regression to the mean for the ace on the Philadelphia Phillies staff. A matchup against the Rockies away from Coors Field will definitely help boost Nola’s numbers back up.
The Rockies already have the worst strikeout rate on the road at 28.4%, as their numbers have historically been awful when not playing at Coors Field. Nola is projected for 6.14 strikeouts tonight, which ranks fourth on the slate. Run prevention is also key as the Rockies have a 3.3 implied run total as Nola and the Phillies are a slate-high -325 home favorite.
Hitters
Kyle Schwarber ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
With a six implied run total, the Phillies are going to be one of the most popular stacks on the slate. Leading the way is Kyle Schwarber, who has the highest ownership projection for DraftKings and FanDuel among all hitters. The powerful outfielder has only one hit in his last 14 plate appearances, but Schwarber’s upside is impossible to ignore in this matchup.
The Rockies will start right-hander Noah Davis who pitched well in his first outing against the Mariners, allowing only three hits in his five innings of work. That was the first start of his career, so we’ll see if he can repeat that performance against a dangerous Phillies lineup. THE BAT X season projections are certainly not in his favor moving forward.
Schwarber has dominated right-handed pitching throughout his career. He has a .294 ISO and a .534 slugging percentage against right-handers compared to a .164 ISO and a .372 slugging percentage against southpaws. Priced at $3,100 on FanDuel, Schwarber has a 99% Bargain Rating. He should be one of the first players selected in cash game lineups.
Marcus Semien ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Marcus Semien is another Rangers batter who looks phenomenal against Athletics left-hander JP Sears. Semien is the best second baseman on the slate and has been hitting the cover off of the baseball recently. In his last four games, Semien has three home runs, hitting 8-for-16 from the plate and driving in 10 runs while also adding a steal in his last game.
Semien is averaging 22.5 DraftKings points per game in his last four games and has two or more hits in six of his last 10 games. Batting leadoff for the Rangers, Semien is going to be one of the better pay-up options on the slate, especially in the infield positions. Swinging this hot of a bat,
Semien should have plenty of opportunities at the top of the lineup.
