The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jason Heyward ($2,200): Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jason Heyward is enjoying an early-season renaissance with his new club. So far this season, the Dodgers outfielder has the best slugging percentage of his career, which has propelled him to the middle of the batting order over the past few outings. Although it’s unlikely he maintains that standard throughout his age 33 season, he’s worth including on rosters at his discounted rate.
As it stands, Heyward is slugging .533, with four of his six hits going for extra bases. That includes three home runs and one double, which has also elevated his run production. The former first-round pick has accounted for ten runs, driving in five and coming around to score another five. Further, his underlying metrics substantiate sustained effort for the time being, with Heyward delivering a 69.6% hard-hit rate and a 17.5% barrel percentage.
Heyward has a chance to exact revenge against his former club, and based on our projections, he rates as the pre-eminent value play on tonight’s slate.
Jack Suwinski ($2,900): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
One of the biggest early-season surprises has been the play of the Pirates. Pittsburgh has emerged as one of the top-scoring offenses, leading the National League in runs scored and ranking sixth in OPS. The Pirates get balanced production throughout their lineup. But Suwinski continues to be one of their most underrated talents.
Suwinski is mashing the ball right now. The 24-year-old ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging and barrel percentages, sitting in the 93rd percentile or better in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average. More importantly, his performances have yielded tangible results, with Suwinski swatting four dingers and driving in nine in just 45 plate appearances.
For some reason, Suwinski’s salary does not yet reflect his true potential. But now is the time to buy as he continues his fine form against the typically combustible Luke Weaver in his first start of the campaign. Suwinski’s salary only goes up from here.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kodai Senga ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
When Japanese pitchers come to America, it doesn’t always result in immediate production. There’s an acclimation phase as they adapt to the differences in the style of play and test their stuff against MLB hitters. However, that’s not the case with Kodai Senga, who has delivered elite performances since landing with the Mets. He goes from one pitcher-friendly venue to another as his Mets travel to take on the Giants.
The venue isn’t the only factor working in Senga’s favor. The rookie pitcher is keeping batters off-balance with his seemingly unhittable ghost forkball. Senga is inducing a mind-numbing 61.5% whiff rate on his signature pitch, also setting up his fastball and cutter for success. Through 16.0 innings pitched, Senga has rung up 21 batters while allowing just six earned runs.
Expect Senga to extend his hot streak against a free-swinging Giants squad. San Francisco leads the majors with 188 strikeouts this year. Moreover, they sit in the bottom third in the MLB in run production, with just 79 runs scored through their first 17 games.
According to our aggregate model, Senga is hands down the best pitcher available on Thursday.
Hitter
Trea Turner ($6,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Phillies are set to host the Rockies for a four-game set starting on Thursday. The Rockies can’t get out of their own way this season, giving up the second-most runs in the bigs. That sets Turner and the Phillies up for another strong showing, as they have been one of the top run-producing teams early in 2023.
Of course, Turner has been integral to his new team’s success. The reigning Silver Slugger sits second on the team in hits and has maintained his power stroke in the City of Brotherly Love. Six of those knocks have gone for extra bags, resulting in a team-best 15 runs and six RBI.
Additionally, Turner is a menace on the base paths. He’s accumulated four stolen bases this year, three of which have come over the past ten days. Over that same ten-game sample, Turner has recorded four multi-hit games, with 11 runs scored.
The Rockies are sacrificing Ryan Feltner in the series opener. Feltner has an 8.65 ERA, allowing 1.95 walks and hits per inning pitched with a 7.7% barrel percentage. He won’t last long against the Phillies, and Turner should be a big part of their success.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Roansy Contreras ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Other than one ineffective outing against the Astros, Roansy Contreras is off to a brilliant start this season. The 23-year-old has kept the Red Sox and Cardinals at bay but faces his easiest test of the year against the Reds on Thursday.
As expected, the Reds have been one of the worst teams in the league. Cincinnati sits in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and OPS while accumulating the ninth-most punch-outs. Worse, the Reds have been held scoreless over the last two games.
Contreras’ best fantasy performances have come on the road. He’s got a 2.31 ERA as the visitor with eight strikeouts and a 1-0 record. Additionally, he’s coming off his best fantasy effort of the year, a 16.1 fantasy point effort.
Thursday’s pitching class is weak. Contreras brings as much upside as most other pitchers but has the added benefit of taking on one of the weakest batting orders. He’s worth a flyer.
Hitters
Freddie Freeman ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Injuries are piling up for the Dodgers, forcing them to test their depth. Although some role players have responded well to the increased responsibility, the usual suspects have been some of their highest-performing athletes. Freeman has been a reliable presence and is the catalyst again versus the Cubs.
Freeman has hits in four of his previous five contests, totaling six hits, four runs, and three RBI. More impressively, the former MVP had a two-homer game a couple of nights ago, highlighting his boom potential on any given night. Freeman also has some of the best underlying metrics in baseball. He ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and expected batting average.
The wind is also expected to be blowing out to right when these teams take the field, resulting in a slate-high 11.0-run total. That should help Freeman reach his full potential against Taillon and the Cubs.
Juan Soto ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday marks the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. That signals big things for the Padres, and the rest of the lineup benefits from his spot atop the order. That will have an indirect effect on Soto, who will be insulated by Tatis Jr. We expect Soto to respond appropriately and put forth a monster effort against the Diamondbacks.
Soto’s been up to his usual antics even without Tatis Jr. in the lineup. He sits among the elite MLB hitters in hard-hit and barrel rate, factoring into his .568 expected slugging percentage. Predictably, that’s contributed to some impressive traditional stats, with Soto delivering four long balls, 12 runs, and nine RBI.
There is still plenty of room for growth for Soto, whose actual metrics remain well below expected values. He’s recorded hits in two straight, and that upward trend should continue with Tatis ahead of him in the order.
