The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Mark Mathias ($2,500): Second Base/Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ first two games at Coors Field have gone swimmingly. Through the first two games, the upstart Pirates have totaled 19 runs and go for the series sweep of the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. Mark Mathias got into the action on Monday, recording four hits, two runs, and an RBI. Although he might not live up to those expectations today, we do like him to surpass the implied value of his $2,400 salary.
Mathias has some middling statistics but remains below his expected totals, implying he remains a progression candidate. After his four-hit performance against the Rockies, Mathias brought his slugging percentage up to .250. Still, he remains below his expected benchmark of .364. Moreover, the 28-year-old has fallen off his career pace in barrel percentage.
As we saw in the series opener, Mathias benefits from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. We’re betting that trend continues with another solid performance on Wednesday.
Mike Brosseau ($2,400): Third Base, Milwaukee Brewers
It has been a productive start to the season for Mike Brosseau. The Milwaukee Brewers’ third baseman has found his power stroke and has been a solid contributor when he works his way into the lineup. We’re expecting that torrid pace to continue in this interleague matchup.
Four of Brosseau’s seven hits have gone for extra bases, including two long balls. Consequently, he’s established a .556 slugging percentage and driven in six for the Brew Crew. As most of our value plays, Brosseau remains an analytics stud with growth indicators. The 29-year-old has an above-average expected slugging percentage and barrel rate; however, he’s below his career average in hard-hit rate. If he starts putting a charge into the ball, we could see his metrics climb even higher.
There’s a good chance Marco Gonzales will facilitate that growth on Wednesday. The Seattle Mariners’ southpaw gets knocked around, putting up a .413 expected slugging percentage and 37.1% hard-hit rate. Brosseau is a low-cost x-factor on the main slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,800 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer returns to his old stomping grounds at Chavez Ravine. The New York Mets ace spent half a season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, helping LA to the NLCS before signing in the Big Apple the following offseason. On Wednesday, he’ll have a chance to remind the Dodgers exactly what they missed out on.
Scherzer remains a force on the mound. The future Hall of Famer has a five-pitch mix, eliciting a 22.1% whiff rate or better on three of his offerings. As usual, Scherzer continues to rely on his cutter and slider as his put-away pitches, but he needs to do a better job of finding the strike zone, as only 50 of his 97 pitches were strikes.
Once that starts to happen, we should see his K/9 rate work back up toward its normal range. Nevertheless, he has maintained his elite expected batting average, and greener pastures await the wily veteran.
Today’s pitching class isn’t particularly deep, and Scherzer stands out as the top-ranked player available. He’ll have a chance to shine against a Dodgers squad that has accumulated the third-most strikeouts through the first three weeks of the season.
Hitter
Bryan Reynolds ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
With some combustible arms taking to the mound, some highly-rated hitters are available on today’s slate. Although there are some names that command respect, few players have an analytics profile that can compete with Bryan Reynolds.
Of course, it’s a combination of skill and situation that warrants a play on the Pirates outfielder. As noted, Pittsburgh has enjoyed its time at Coors Field, and Reynolds has gotten in on the action. The former second-round pick has reached base four times through the series’ first two games, driving in two and coming around to score once.
More importantly, his underlying metrics support that Reynolds is an elite performer in every one of his plate appearances. He rates in the 95th percentile or better in expected batting average and slugging percentage, with an 18.5% barrel rate and 49.2% hard-hit percentage.
We suspect Reynolds has reserved his best performances for the series finale. The Rockies send lefty Austin Gomber and his 5.65 expected ERA to the mound; with metrics like his, Reynolds will make him pay.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Justin Steele ($9,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Pitching against the Oakland Athletics is almost an immediate advantage. The A’s rank third-last in team OPS, with the 11th most strikeouts and fourth-fewest runs per game. But those aren’t the only metrics working in Justin Steele’s favor ahead of Wednesday’s clash in Oakland.
The Chicago Cubs’ southpaw has terrorized opponents from the bump this year. Steele is 2-0 in three starts with a 1.42 ERA and 0.84 walks and hits per inning pitched. More impressively, his analytics suggest that he’s hit a sustainable path and could maintain this form for an extended run.
Steele ranks in the 77th percentile or better in whiff, barrel, and hard-hit rate, resulting in a sterling 3.01 expected earned run average. Additionally, he has a 3.63 FIP and a .210 expected batting average, highlighting his sustainability.
Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher’s haven, and that should help Steele continue his early-season ascent against the Athletics.
Hitters
Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
After nearly earning inclusion in our “Value Play” section, we couldn’t overlook the value Ke’Bryan Hayes brings to the main slate. The third baseman fits nicely into a Pirates stack against the Rockies.
Hayes struggled through the early part of the campaign but has found his stride of late. The former first-round pick has hit safely in five straight and six of the last seven, recording multiple hits in three of those contests. Predictably, this has resulted in increased run production, with Hayes scoring six times and driving in four.
Additionally, his statcast metrics suggest that ongoing success is anticipated. Hayes rates on the elite end of the spectrum in hard-hit rate, expected batting average, and average exit velocity, all of which play well against the Rockies.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
There are some first-class hitters available on the docket. Julio Rodriguez stands among them, poised to continue his recent heater against Eric Lauer and the Brew Crew.
J-Rod has the obvious righty vs. lefty matchup on his side, but there are other advantages to rostering the M’s outfielder. Rodriguez has torched opponents over his recent sample, accumulating seven hits, six RBIs, and four runs scored over his past six games. As expected, he’s hit double-digit fantasy points in three of those outings, with an average of 9.5 per game at DraftKings.
Rodriguez excels against southpaws, with improved on-base and slugging percentages. But nobody is slowing down the Mariners’ centerpiece, and he should continue to thrive at home against an ineffective Lauer.
