The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
CJ Abrams ($2,400): Shortstop, Washington Nationals
At the low end of the salary chart, Abrams has a 98% DraftKings Bargain Rating on the strength of a +2.15 projected Plus/Minus and 24.5 ceiling.
In his second MLB season, the Nationals shortstop has shown some ceiling potential with a 27-point DraftKings game against the Rockies on April 7. Abrams has just two home runs in 335 major league at-bats but adds some fantasy scoring versatility with his speed. He notched a 16-point game on Friday with two stolen bases against the Guardians.
The Nationals face right-hander Dean Kremer of the Orioles tonight. Kremer is 0-0 with a 9.49 ERA in three starts this season. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each outing with a rough .459 xwOBA.
Abrams has strong bargain potential as a low-ownership lineup filler in this matchup.
Jarren Duran ($2,000): Outfielder, Boston Red Sox
Duran made his season debut for the Red Sox on Monday with a 1-3 performance against the Angels. He notched a double and added a walk and stolen base to fill up the stat sheet.
In 314 big-league at-bats, Duran has managed to hit just .220 with five home runs and 10 stolen bases. He is significantly below league averages with a career .274 wOBA and 31.0 K%.
Tonight, the Red Sox face Twins right-hander Sonny Gray. The 33-year-old veteran has started the season on fire with a 2-0 record and just one earned run allowed in 17 innings.
Duran is fighting for playing time in the wake of Adam Duvall‘s injury for Boston. If he can follow up with a similar performance from Monday, he should continue to see at-bats, and will pay off in spades as a minimum-salary fantasy option.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) at San Diego Padres
FantasyLabs projections have Strider as the highest ceiling on Tuesday’s pitching slate, ahead of Blake Snell and Logan Gilbert. Despite the higher price, his Bargain Rating is stronger on FanDuel at 69% than on DraftKings.
The Braves’ 24-year-old righty is announcing his presence with authority in 23 starts over his first three MLB seasons. He has a career 13-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Last season, Strider posted an insane 38.3 K% and is somehow topping that so far in 2023 at 40.9%.
In three starts this season, Strider has nine strikeouts and a positive Plus/Minus rating in each game. On the downside, he has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two appearances and has yet to work into the seventh inning this season.
Despite a stout lineup, the Padres have one of the lower implied run totals on the slate. With his strikeout potential, Strider is a top-tier option tonight at a top-tier price tag.
Hitter
Bryan Reynolds ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
According to both FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections, Reynolds has the highest ceiling of all hitters on Tuesday’s slate. He has an 81% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he provides more pricing value than DraftKings.
Reynolds is off to a hot start in 2023, batting .324 with a .932 OPS and five home runs. He ranks in the top 8% of hitters with a .435 xwOBA, 112.4 max exit velocity, and an 11% strikeout rate.
All five of Reynolds’ home runs this season came in an explosive five-game span from April 2-7. He topped 14 DraftKings points in all five games during that stretch, including showing his ceiling potential with 33 and 39-point performances.
The Piratesface right-hander Jose Urena on the mound for the Rockies. Urena has struggled mightily in his first three starts with a 9.90 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 10 innings pitched.
With by far the highest implied run total on the slate, fantasy players are licking their lips with this matchup in Colorado. Expect Reynolds to be among the highest-owned players on the slate.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Gilbert is a strong value play tonight with the second-highest ceiling and projected points on the pitching slate. He slots in seventh in DraftKings salary for that potential top-end production.
In his third big-league season, Gilbert is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in his first three starts for the Mariners. He has two 22+ DraftKings point performances thus far and at least six strikeouts in each outing while lowering his xwOBA by nearly 80 points from 2022.
The Brewers have one of the lowest projected run totals on the slate, and the weather looks to be cold and rainy in Seattle.
Expect a strong performance from Gilbert on the bump.
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Hitters
Cedric Mullins ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) at Washington Nationals
Outside of the juicy Pirates-Rockies matchup, Mullins is trending up for an Orioles team that looks like it could make some noise this season.
Mullins boasts three straight 20+ DraftKings point performances as he lit up the White Sox over the weekend with six hits, six RBI, and six walks. Mullins’ plate discipline has improved greatly in 2023, with a career-high 16.4 walk percentage.
The Orioles face right-hander Josiah Gray for the Nationals. Gray is 0-3 with a 4.32 ERA through three starts this season, though he has allowed one of the lowest average exit velocity ratings in the league in 2023.
Take a look at Mullins as a contrarian play while everyone else is loading up on Pirates and Rockies in their lineups tonight.
Jurickson Profar ($3,600 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Rockies have scored four or more runs in six of their eight home games this season. Profar is a cheap option for a piece of this game that easily tops the implied run totals for tonight.
At 30 years old, Profar’s numbers are not eye-popping, with a .226 average and .276 OBP, but the model loves his value potential in this lineup and ballpark.
The pitching matchup doesn’t hurt, either. Vince Velasquez takes the mound for the Pirates at 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The right-hander has consistently finished toward the bottom of the league in exit velocity allowed and has given up a 25.7 launch angle this season, the highest of his career.
Expect fantasy players to go all in on the Rockies’ hitters in stacks today. Profar may be a cheap lineup filler option to capture a small piece of this game’s potential.
