The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Donovan Solano ($2,400): First Base, Minnesota Twins
Solano is showing no signs of slowing down in his tenth season in the bigs. The Twins first baseman has the best expected batting average of his career and has earned his spot atop the Twinkies batting order. Still, his salary doesn’t reflect his potential against the Yankees on Thursday.
Solano enters the contest with a 50.0% sweet spot and 46.2% hard-hit rates. More importantly, that’s yielded actual results, with the 35-year-old putting together a .753 OPS and hits in seven straight. Over that modest sample, Solano is 10-for-27, with three runs scored, one driven in, and an extra-base knock.
Jhony Brito has shone through his first two major league starts, but some concerning cracks are showing in his metrics. The young righty has a 5.11 expected earned run average and 11.5% barrel percentage. He’s overcome those shortcomings early, but Yankees Stadium is an unforgiving venue, and Solano could make him pay.
Mark Mathias ($2,100): Second Base/Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are showing the future is now, relying on a stable of young and up-and-comers to compete in the NL Central. Although he hasn’t been around long, Mathias can carve out a more substantive role with the Pirates.
Mathias was recalled earlier in the week, playing in just two games this season. He has yet to record a hit, but Mathias has some noteworthy metrics suggesting a breakout performance looming. The utility man has made solid contact in six plate appearances, posting a 50.0% hard-hit rate. Further, he has a promising launch angle and barrel rate, implying that balls could fly once he finds his power stroke.
There’s a good chance it all comes together against Jordan Montgomery. The southpaw gives up a lot of solid contact and has middling analytics. At $2,100, Mathias is worth a flyer on Thursday’s slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Apparently, the Tigers are committed to helping pitchers deliver above-average fantasy outings. The AL Central basement dwellers rank dead-last in OPS as a team, averaging ten strikeouts per game. Those metrics should help Bassitt get his season back on track.
Bassitt was lit up in a season-opening loss to the St. Louis Cardinals but responded with a quality start against the Angels last time out. The Blue Jays pitcher allowed two earned runs over 6.0 innings, punching out five and earning the win against the Halos.
According to our aggregate FantasyLabs and TheBatX projections, we should expect more of the same from Bassitt in the series finale against Detroit. He ranks among the best in median and ceiling projections and should land on the high end of the spectrum against the free-swinging Tigers.
Bassitt’s strikeout prospects also grade out well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
The reigning AL MVP is showing no signs of rust early this season. Judge continues to rate as one of the best analytics players in the majors, helping him maintain his MVP-caliber form from last year. Unfortunately for the Twins, Joe Ryan doesn’t have the stuff to keep Judge grounded on Thursday.
For the third year in a row, Judge ranks in the 100th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Moreover, the former first-round pick has set a new career benchmark early this season with a scorching 67.9% rating. That’s complemented by an elite expected slugging percentage and barrel rate.
Predictably, Judge has translated his metrics into tangible results. The New York Yankees outfielder leads his team in hits, runs, and homers, sitting third in RBI from his usual two-spot in the batting order.
Ryan tends to give up a lot of hard contact. The Twins’ righty sits in the bottom 14% of pitchers in hard-hit rate while giving up a below-average 7.7% barrel rate.
Yankees Stadium isn’t the kind of place where you can survive a lot of hard contact, and Judge isn’t the type of guy to miss on those pitches. There’s a reason he leads our ceiling projections and is worth including in any format on Thursday.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Nick Lodolo ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The rough start to the Phillies’ season continues on Thursday with a stop against Lodolo and the Reds. Lodolo has been filthy to start the year, and the Phillies can’t figure out lefties to save their lives.
The former No. 7 pick has been a menace from the bump. Lodolo sits in the 92nd percentile or better in strikeout percentage, expected ERA, and whiff rate. Predominantly, he relies on his 4-seamer and curveball, inducing a 33.3% whiff rate with his heater and a 46.6% mark with the yacker. However, Lodolo also mixes in a devastating changeup and occasional sinker to keep batters guessing.
Phillies hitters are getting the swing-away signs from their coaches, and it’s not working against southpaws. Philadelphia has accumulated the second-most strikeouts and a 27.0% strikeout rate against lefties, adding to Lodolo’s fantasy appeal.
Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
The emergence of Judge and Shohei Ohtani casts a large shadow on the American League. Lost in the hoopla of the generational talents is Guerrero, who was once considered that level of prospect in his own right. Vlad had a subpar year by his standards in 2022, but he’s been absolutely raking to start the new year.
Guerrero’s analytics are second to none. The Jays’ first baseman ranks in the 95th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, and expected batting average. Additionally, his hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity sit among the top 8% of MLB hitters. With his first-class barrel rate and third spot in the Jays’ batting order, Vladdy is poised to deliver sustained production.
Through the first couple weeks of the season, Vladdy has a .417 batting average, a .563 slugging percentage, and a .491 on-base percentage. More impressively, he’s recorded multiple hits in six of his last seven games, highlighting his ability to do it against anybody.
This salary doesn’t reflect his true potential, and Vladdy’s MVP-caliber play should continue against the Tigers.
Jonathan India ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Last season was a down year for India, but the Reds second baseman has responded nicely with a hot start to 2023. With Bailey Falter on the mound for the Phillies, India gets the ideal righty vs. lefty matchup in this National League showdown.
India isn’t a prototypical power hitter, but he does a lot well, making him a sneaky fantasy boom option. So far this season, the former No. 5 overall pick has two stolen bases, three RBI, and 12 runs scored, mixing in four extra-base hits, including a home run. It’s worth noting his home run and three driven in came against a lefty.
Falter is a low-end pitching option with bottom-tier metrics. He ranks in the 26th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, whiff percentage, and chase rate.
