The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Trey Mancini ($2,600): First base/Outfielder, Chicago Cubs
Trey Mancini’s tenure as a Chicago Cub is off to a rocky start. The 31-year-old is below career norms in traditional and advanced metrics. Nevertheless, Mancini should thrive against Logan Gilbert, helping his stats back up to normal ranges.
Through 43 plate appearances, Mancini has yet to get his barrel on a ball. The astounding 0% barrel rate is below his career average of 10.4% and is becoming a statistical anomaly. Predictably, that’s negatively impacting virtually every other category, with his slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and sweet spot percentage tapering off.
Thankfully, a matchup against Gilbert could help rectify Mancini’s current form. Throughout his first three seasons in the bigs, the Seattle Mariners pitcher has a below-average 7.6% barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit rate. Those metrics should help Mancini snap out of his early season funk and start his natural progression back up to career norms.
Ezequiel Tovar ($2,700): Shortstop, Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers have had to contend with the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field this week, and the early returns are not good. The Colorado Rockies have scored 13 runs through the first two games of the series, a mark that will look worse after Wednesday’s rubber match.
So far, Ezequiel Tovar has contributed three hits in the series, two of which were doubles. That extends a recent hot streak in which Tovar has recorded hits in six of his past seven, with three going for extra bases. The 21-year-old should maintain that form against Jack Flaherty, who is struggling to find the strike zone. The Cardinals’ hurler has allowed 13 walks through the first 10.0 innings pitched this year, with only seven strikeouts.
You can’t miss in Coors Field without paying the price. Flaherty could be the latest pitcher to falter, allowing Tovar to maintain his recent hot streak.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sonny Gray ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
According to our projections, almost no other pitcher could match Sonny Gray’s ceiling on the main slate. The Minnesota Twins pitcher has been dealing from the bump early this season and could reach even loftier heights against the struggling Chicago White Sox.
Gray has a minuscule 0.75 ERA through two starts, with 14 strikeouts in 12.0 innings pitched. He’s generating a lot of swings and misses with his offspeed offerings, inducing a 29.2% whiff rate or better on his curveball, slider, and changeup. As expected, that’s yielded positive results with the rest of his metrics, as Gray ranks in the top half of MLB pitchers in barrel rate, strikeout percentage, and chase rate.
That should perpetuate the White Sox’s ineffective start to the season. Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS while accumulating the 13th-most Ks. Sadly, their status falls even further against righties, with the White Sox ranking fourth-last in punchouts.
Gray’s elite metrics make him a top candidate to reach his fantasy ceiling against the Sox.
Hitter
Nolan Arenado ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
As bad as the St. Louis pitching staff has looked, the batting order is doing its part to keep the Cardinals competitive against the Rockies. We’re betting that trend continues against the combustible Jose Urena. Look for Nolan Arenado to lead the charge for the Cards.
Arenado is finding his rhythm at the plate over his recent sample, recording multiple hits in three of his past five games. Not surprisingly, that’s elevated his production, with Arenado driving in six and coming around to score twice over that stretch. Still, the five-time Silver Slugger is below his normal benchmarks and should continue to excel in the series finale.
Analytically, there aren’t many pitchers worse than Urena. The 31-year-old ranks in the 1st percentile in expected batting average, strikeout percentage, and expected ERA. His traditional metrics reflect that standard, with Urena compiling a 14.40 ERA in two starts. Somehow, that’s still better than his expected mark of 16.05.
Wednesday’s matchup could feel more like batting practice to the heavy hitters in the Cardinals’ lineup. Considering his fine form, we’re highlighting Arenado as the top play.
The over on Arenado’s fantasy score looks intriguing at Coors Field. Use PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 deposit match.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($9,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
There is no shortage of quality pitchers in the National League, but few players have delivered with the consistency of Zack Wheeler. Perennially, the former All-Star ranks among the elite arms in expected ERA. Wheeler’s maintained that standard again this year and should extend the Miami Marlins’ early-season misery.
The Marlins are a free-swinging team. Miami ranks second-last in strikeouts against right-handers while ranking in the bottom half of the league in OPS. Wheeler could expose that weakness on Wednesday, turning to any of his six pitches to keep the Marlins hitters guessing.
His changeup notwithstanding, Wheeler induces a 22.2% whiff rate or better on his five other pitchers. Moreover, he can turn to his sinker, 4-seamer, or slider as his put-away pitch, leaving hitters clueless in the batter’s box.
Defense has let him down somewhat, but Wheeler hasn’t missed a beat with his first-class stuff from the mound. We’re anticipating a season-best performance against one of the worst-hitting teams in the bigs.
Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Arenado isn’t the only Cardinal who will get in on the action against Urena. Paul Goldschmidt is scorching the boxscores again this year and benefits from the pitching matchup and thin mountain air in Denver.
The reigning NL MVP picked up exactly where he left off last year. Goldy sits in the 94th percentile or better in average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, and expected weighted on-base average. Practically, that’s translated to on-field tangibles, with Goldschmidt recording four RBI and four runs scored over his previous four outings.
Like Arenado, Goldschmidt projects as an elite hitter on the main slate on both platforms. We wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeded his ceiling projections en route to one of the day’s best performances.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Wind could be a factor in Wednesday’s showdown between the Mariners and Cubs. Early forecasts suggest the wind could be blowing out in this inter-league matchup, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair. Although both teams will benefit from the wind direction, we like Julio Rodriguez to come through for the M’s.
J-Rod remains a critical component of the Mariners’ offense. He’s tied for the team lead in runs and long fly balls, already stealing four bags and driving in four through the first couple weeks of the season. Rodriguez is adept at getting the barrel to the ball, recording a blazing 15.2% barrel rate and leading to an above-average 45.5% hard-hit percentage.
The Mariners have recorded 17 runs over their last three games. Rodriguez hasn’t gotten in on the action yet, but we like him to be a primary contributor Wednesday against the Cubs.
