The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alec Burleson ($2,900): First Baseman/Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Burleson and the Cardinals are a great place to start your roster builds on Monday as they head to Colorado to begin a series at Coos Field. Burleson is projected to hit second in the Cardinals lineup, and he brings the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate using the FantasyLabs projections. The Cardinals have the highest implied team total on the main slate and should be able to do some damage vs. German Márquez ($8,500).
Burleson had a big year at Triple-A last year, hitting .331 with 20 homers, but most of the prospect hype for St. Louis coming into the season went to his fellow rookie Jordan Walker ($3,000). Walker is batting lower in the lineup, though, while Burleson typically has been batting second against right-handed pitchers.
In his six games, Burleson has gone 7-for-22 (.318) with three doubles and a home run. He doesn’t bring much speed but seems to be adjusting well to Major League pitching. He matches seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he also comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.
Marquez has been more hittable by lefties than righties in his career and has historically struggled at Coors. On the favorable side of both those splits and at this salary, Burleson is an excellent value for Monday night.
Kyle Lewis ($2,100): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona acquired Lewis from the Mariners this past offseason in exchange for Cooper Hummel. One of the reasons Lewis made sense is that he’s a right-handed hitter, while many of the DBacks’ top prospects are left-handed hitters. With his new team, Lewis has slid in as a platoon option and has hit first or second in all four of his starts, going 3-for-18 (.167) with a single, a double, a home run, and a .232 wOBA.
Lewis has always had a lot of “swing-and-miss” potential in his game, which has continued this season with nine strikeouts. However, he also brings plenty of power potential, which he has showcased as well. Lewis had eight home runs in his 54 games with Seattle over the previous two seasons.
Lewis is also priced near the minimum, making him worth a flier in GPP formats due to his high ceiling. He’ll face lefty Wade Miley to start this home series against the Brewers, and as long as he’s near the top of the order, he’ll remain a strong play.
Both the Fantasy Labs and THE BAT X projections have him as the player with the highest Projected Plus/Minus outside of the Cardinals at Coors Field.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) at Chicago Cubs
Castillo has the highest ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT, just behind Max Scherzer on DraftKings. On FanDuel, which includes the earlier games on their main slate, Sandy Alcantara and Framber Valdez are also in the mix.
Castillo has been lights out for the Mariners in his two starts this season, allowing just three hits in 11.2 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. He got a no-decision in his first start against the Guardians but posted 24.9 DraftKings points. The 30-year-old righty followed that up with another stellar outing against the Angels and got the win on his way to 26.4 DraftKings points.
He and the Mariners head to Wrigley Field to face the Cubs on Monday night, and Chicago has the lowest splits-adjusted wOBA for their projected lineup on the slate. Castillo also matches seven Pro Trends, more than any other starting pitcher.
In his career, he is 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 9.6 K/9 in eight starts at Wrigley, and he fanned 11 in six shutout innings in his only start at Wrigley last season. Castillo’s 7.05 K Prediction is the highest of any starter on the slate.
The Marines are the fourth-strongest favorite on the slate as well, so there’s a good shot Castillo can also get his second win of the year.
Hitter
Mike Trout ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Trout and Ronald Acuña Jr. are projected extremely tight at the top on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. I’m going with Trout, though, due to a juicy matchup and his current form, which is right on par with his masterful career norms.
In his first nine games of the season, Trout is 11-for-31 (.355) with 10 walks as teams try to work around him. He has hit safely in eight straight games after going 0-for-4 on Opening Day and is coming off a great series vs. the Blue Jays. In that series, he went 4-for-12 (.333) with a pair of home runs, two walks, and six RBI.
Trout has already done a lot of damage this season against left-handed pitchers, going 5-for-7 (.714) with a double, a home run, a .517 wOBA, and a .355 ISO. Last year, he also thrived against southpaws, hitting .310 with a .441 wOBA and .328 ISO.
He’s in a great spot to start the week against Patrick Corbin. Corbin stumbled to a 6.31 ERA and 4.84 FIP last season, got knocked around in Spring Training, and has continued to struggle in his two regular season starts. He has already surrendered two home runs while allowing 10 runs in nine innings.
Trout has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he comes with a hefty price tag on both sites. With so much upside in this great matchup, though, he’s definitely a pay-up play to consider.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also like Trout’s prospect of picking up at least two total bases on Monday:
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Bryce Elder ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
At only $6,600, Elder is a steal on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81%. Although he didn’t make the rotation coming out of Spring Training, he has been filling in for Max Fried (hamstring) and will make his second start of the season in a favorable spot against the Reds.
On DraftKings, Elder has the fifth-highest median projection and the sixth-highest ceiling projection using the blended set, even though he has the 14th-highest salary. He also has the sixth-highest K Prediction.
The young right-hander faced the Cardinals in his first start of the season and was able to work around some control issues. He finished with six shutout innings, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out six.
His strikeout upside is real, and the matchup is solid enough to make him stand out if you are shopping for a cheap starter to allow you to bulk up your lineup.
Hitters
Corey Seager ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Seager has the highest median and ceiling at shortstop using the blended projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Coming off a strong Spring Training, he got off to another slow start before the Rangers went on the road this past weekend to face the Cubs. Seager looked much better at Wrigley Field, going 4-for-10 with three doubles. All three of his batted balls on Sunday were hard-hit, and he’s up to a 59.3% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate, per Statcast.
He’s in a great spot to keep crushing on Monday against Zack Greinke. Seager is 8-for-21 (.381) with three home runs against Greinke for his career, and Greinke has a 5.31 xERA in his first two starts as he has worked around trouble created by his 1.41 WHIP.
Alex Call ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Angels
The Nationals’ lineup is far from one of the best in the Majors, but there are some intriguing value options in the outfield against the Angels and lefty José Suárez. The top two spots in the lineup are projected to be Call and Stone Garrett, who both have shown a good blend of power and speed potential.
Call has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in the outfield in the blended projections on DraftKings, where he’s projected for low ownership and has a 97% leverage rating in addition to a 92% Bargain Rating.
In his eight games this season, Call has gone 7-for-26 (.269) with a double, a home run, eight walks, six runs scored, and seven RBI. He has hit leadoff in the last three games for Washington and reached base in 43.8% of his plate appearances.
If Call is again atop the lineup against Suárez, he is an excellent place to save some salary and load up on a stud pitcher or some of the bigger bats.
