Baseball is officially back, and it’s one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Tuesday’s 11-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Joe Ryan ($9,500 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel)
- Michael Kopech ($9,300 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel)
- Brandon Woodruff ($8,900 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel)
These three pitchers are expected to command a ton of ownership on Tuesday’s slate. It wouldn’t surprise me if all three pitchers are above 30%, while Woodruff could flirt with 40%.
Let’s start with Woodruff. He was dominant last season, pitching to a 2.56 ERA and 10.59 K/9 over 30 starts, and he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting. His traditional metrics haven’t been quite as impressive to start the year, but his 3.16 xERA and 2.65 FIP are actually better than his marks from last year.
He’ll draw a superb matchup vs. the Reds on Tuesday, who have been the worst team in baseball by a mile. They’ve won just three of their first 22 games, and they’re at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive metrics. Unsurprisingly, Woodruff leads the slate with a 2.9 opponent implied team total, and he’s also the largest favorite of the day at -270. Historically, players with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Considering Woodruff’s salary, he’s going to be tough to avoid. He’s a lock for cash games, and I’ll have plenty of exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Ryan is the most expensive option of the trio, even though he was essentially an afterthought at the start of the year. However, people will learn your name quickly when you pitch to a 1.17 ERA and a 9.78 K/9 through your first four starts.
Ryan’s matchup vs. the Orioles isn’t quite as appealing as Woodruff’s, but he does have a bit more strikeout upside. The Orioles boast the seventh-worst strikeout rate vs. right-handers to start the year, while the Reds are 11th. Ryan has also thrown at least six innings in three straight starts, so there’s definitely some upside here.
Finally, Kopech is coming off his worst start of the season in his last outing, allowing two runs with just three strikeouts over five innings vs. the Royals. However, his 1.42 ERA and 2.76 FIP for the year are still very impressive. Kopech was also once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, so he has a legit chance at a breakout season.
However, Kopech’s strikeout numbers have been a bit lacking to start the year. He’s managed just 8.53 strikeouts per nine innings, which represents a massive decrease from his mark of 13.37 last season. He seems like a candidate for some positive regression in that department, which would be massive for his fantasy value. Kopech owns the third-highest K Prediction in our MLB Models, so perhaps that will start Tuesday vs. the Cubs.
Ultimately, it’s hard to poke holes in this trio. Woodruff seems like the best option of the bunch, and he leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus and ceiling projection on today’s slate. That makes him tough to avoid at $8,900.
I’m least sold on Ryan, who was not considered a particularly impressive prospect heading into this year. He posted a 4.05 ERA in his limited big-league action in 2021, and he’s benefitted from a ridiculously low .163 batting average on balls in play and a 98.6% strand rate. It doesn’t seem like a great day to fade any of these pitchers entirely, but Ryan is the one I’ll have the least exposure to.
Alternative Pitching Options
